#9Joe Burrow

QB·LSU·2019 201824.7 pts line value1st Round

Joe Burrow is a 2-year Dual-Threat QB for LSU. Joe's 2019 season ranks in the 95th percentile nationally by opponent-adjusted EPA per play across 600 plays — a elite rate for the QB.

What projects, and what doesn't · QBs · held out 2019-2025

How well one season predicts the next, measured on seasons the model never trained on. 1.00 would be perfectly predictable; 0.00 means last year told us nothing.

Usage share (volume)0.46
Beats guessing the QB average by 16%. n=2,421 QB seasons
EPA per play (efficiency)0.05
Not projectable — we do not forecast this. n=1,965 QB seasons
Total EPA (value)0.51
Beats guessing the QB average by 20%. n=1,965 QB seasons

Across all positions, usage carries year to year at 0.47 and efficiency at 0.07. So Joe Burrow's projection is a projection of opportunity — how much of the offense he runs through. How well he converts it is something this model does not claim to know a year in advance, and the number above is why.

2019 Production

Passing

402/527 Comp/Att5671 Pass yards60 Pass TD6 INT76.3% Comp %

Rushing

369 Rush yards5 Rush TD115 Carries3.2 Yards/carry

Performance Analysis · 2019 · vs QB peers

Efficiency95
Volume100
Dual-Threat100
Consistency91
Clutch100

Player type

Dual-Threat QB

A genuine rushing threat who stresses defenses horizontally. Extends plays with legs and forces extra gap assignments.

Rushing threatScrambles for valueStresses defensive structure

Peer percentiles

Opponent-adjusted EPA (WEPA/play)95th %ile · elite

Game-to-game consistency91th %ile · elite

Key findings

▸Top-10% efficiency among QBs — elite opponent-adjusted EPA rate.
▸High-volume role — one of the team's most-used QBs by play share.
▸High game-to-game consistency — reliable floor each week.
▸14 high-impact games (EPA/play > 0.4) this season — elite ceiling.
▸Particularly dangerous on passing downs — efficiency spikes in obvious pass situations.
▸Production faded as the season progressed — 0.21 EPA/play decline from first to second half.
▸Peak game: 0.95 EPA/play in Wk 3 vs Northwestern State.

Historical Comparables · QB · efficiency + volume + value

Players from 2013–2025 matched on EPA efficiency, play volume, and adjusted value tier — not just one metric.

Player	Team	Yr	Plays	WEPA/play	Line val	Total EPA
Kyler Murray	Oklahoma	2018	563	0.875	24.5	492.9
Baker Mayfield	Oklahoma	2017	548	0.798	21.5	437.3
C.J. Stroud	Ohio State	2021	493	0.890	22.4	438.8
Baker Mayfield	Oklahoma	2016	484	0.854	22.5	413.2
Marcus Mariota	Oregon	2014	610	0.713	19.2	434.8

Comps are statistical — efficiency, volume, and value tier all factor in. Style and conference context differ.

Game Log · box score + EPA, week by week

EPA per play · x-axis: weekabove 0 = added points · below = lost

Wk	Opponent	Result	Opp SP+	C/ATT	Pass Yds	Pass TD	INT	QBR	Rush Yds	Rush TD	EPA/play
1	vsGeorgia Southern	W55-3	-4.5	23/27	278	5	0	97.2	2	0	0.86
2	@Texas	W45-38	12.0	31/39	471	4	1	88.6	8	0	0.67
3	vsNorthwestern State	W65-14	—	21/24	373	2	1	97.3	30	1	0.95
4	@Vanderbilt	W66-38	-10.4	25/34	398	6	0	96.4	-20	0	0.77
6	vsUtah State	W42-6	-4.3	27/38	344	5	1	75.4	42	1	0.56
7	vsFlorida	W42-28	24.0	21/24	293	3	0	96.2	43	0	0.90
8	@Mississippi State	W36-13	3.5	25/32	327	4	0	87.5	-11	0	0.57
9	vsAuburn	W23-20	21.0	32/42	321	1	1	60.9	31	1	0.17
11	@Alabama	W46-41	32.4	31/39	393	3	0	—	64	0	0.47
12	@Ole Miss	W58-37	2.9	32/42	489	5	2	—	26	0	0.59
13	vsArkansas	W56-20	-10.6	23/28	327	3	0	—	24	0	0.56
14	vsTexas A&M	W50-7	15.0	23/32	352	3	0	—	9	0	0.66
15	vsGeorgia	W37-10	26.8	28/38	349	4	0	—	41	0	0.53
1	vsClemson	W42-25	28.1	31/49	463	5	0	—	58	1	0.50
1	vsOklahoma	W63-28	22.9	29/39	493	7	0	—	22	1	0.50

Usage & Situational · Pro

Snap-share proxy

Overall

58.2%

Passing plays

93.1%

Rushing plays

17.5%

Standard downs

54.6%

Passing downs

68.6%

EPA by down type

Standard downs: 0.54
Passing downs: 0.88
Pass / Rush EPA: 0.68 / 0.44

Usage = share of team plays (CFBD has no true snap counts).

Career · rolling EPA, game by game

Per-game EPA5-game avg

EPA per play · 2018 — 2019 · 28 games

Season	Team	Line value	WEPA/play	YoY Δ	Total EPA
2018	LSU	6.4	0.432	—	216.4
2019	LSU	24.7	0.826	+0.39	553.3

Chart shows per-game EPA (bars) and rolling 5-game average (line). Season breaks marked with dashed lines. Line value = est. points over replacement per game.