#9Joe Burrow

QB·LSU·2019 20186.4 pts line valueDay 3 (Rds 4–7)

Joe Burrow is a 2-year Dual-Threat QB for LSU. Joe's 2018 season ranks in the 18th percentile nationally by opponent-adjusted EPA per play across 492 plays — a developing rate for the QB.

What projects, and what doesn't · QBs · held out 2019-2025

How well one season predicts the next, measured on seasons the model never trained on. 1.00 would be perfectly predictable; 0.00 means last year told us nothing.

Usage share (volume)0.46
Beats guessing the QB average by 16%. n=2,421 QB seasons
EPA per play (efficiency)0.05
Not projectable — we do not forecast this. n=1,965 QB seasons
Total EPA (value)0.51
Beats guessing the QB average by 20%. n=1,965 QB seasons

Across all positions, usage carries year to year at 0.47 and efficiency at 0.07. So Joe Burrow's projection is a projection of opportunity — how much of the offense he runs through. How well he converts it is something this model does not claim to know a year in advance, and the number above is why.

2018 Production

Passing

219/379 Comp/Att2893 Pass yards16 Pass TD5 INT57.8% Comp %

Rushing

399 Rush yards7 Rush TD128 Carries3.1 Yards/carry

Performance Analysis · 2018 · vs QB peers

Efficiency18
Volume100
Dual-Threat95
Consistency75
Clutch32

Player type

Dual-Threat QB

A genuine rushing threat who stresses defenses horizontally. Extends plays with legs and forces extra gap assignments.

Rushing threatScrambles for valueStresses defensive structure

Peer percentiles

Opponent-adjusted EPA (WEPA/play)18th %ile · below avg

Game-to-game consistency75th %ile · above avg

Key findings

▸Below-average efficiency vs QB peers — value comes through volume, not per-play impact.
▸High-volume role — one of the team's most-used QBs by play share.
▸High game-to-game consistency — reliable floor each week.
▸4 high-impact games (EPA/play > 0.4) this season — elite ceiling.
▸Peak game: 0.65 EPA/play in Wk 5 vs Ole Miss (SP+ 10).

Game Log · box score + EPA, week by week

EPA per play · x-axis: weekabove 0 = added points · below = lost

Wk	Opponent	Result	Opp SP+	C/ATT	Pass Yds	Pass TD	INT	Rush Yds	Rush TD	EPA/play
1	vsMiami	W33-17	12.7	11/24	140	0	0	14	0	0.11
2	vsSE Louisiana	W31-0	—	10/20	151	2	0	20	1	0.35
3	@Auburn	W22-21	23.6	15/34	249	1	0	22	0	0.12
4	vsLouisiana Tech	W38-21	-6.9	16/28	191	0	0	2	0	0.17
5	vsOle Miss	W45-16	9.8	18/25	292	3	0	96	1	0.65
6	@Florida	L19-27	23.0	19/34	191	0	2	22	0	0.17
7	vsGeorgia	W36-16	32.9	15/30	200	0	0	66	2	0.29
8	vsMississippi State	W19-3	23.2	16/28	129	0	1	8	0	-0.07
10	vsAlabama	L0-29	36.3	18/35	184	0	1	-7	0	-0.10
11	@Arkansas	W24-17	4.5	15/21	195	1	0	15	0	0.45
12	vsRice	W42-10	-26.4	20/28	307	2	0	17	0	0.57
13	@Texas A&M	L72-74	21.6	25/38	270	3	0	100	3	0.31
1	vsUCF	W40-32	16.5	21/34	394	4	1	24	0	0.60

Usage & Situational · Pro

Snap-share proxy

Overall

52.0%

Passing plays

97.9%

Rushing plays

18.1%

Standard downs

42.5%

Passing downs

70.5%

EPA by down type

Standard downs: 0.29
Passing downs: 0.26
Pass / Rush EPA: 0.26 / 0.38

Usage = share of team plays (CFBD has no true snap counts).

Career · rolling EPA, game by game

Per-game EPA5-game avg

EPA per play · 2018 — 2019 · 28 games

Season	Team	Line value	WEPA/play	YoY Δ	Total EPA
2018	LSU	6.4	0.432	—	216.4
2019	LSU	24.7	0.826	+0.39	553.3

Chart shows per-game EPA (bars) and rolling 5-game average (line). Season breaks marked with dashed lines. Line value = est. points over replacement per game.