Tampa Bay Lightning at Washington Capitals
TV The Spot, MNMT·Capital One Arena
Our win probability
and the three reasons
49%Lightning
to win
51%
Capitals
- Expected goals
- 3.0–3.0
- Goes to overtime
- 22%
← favors favors →
favors →- Ability to win22% of the signalfavors TBL.523vs.516win rate (OT = tie)
- Scoring chances66% of the signalfavors TBL.125vs.0135v5 xG diff / 60
- Goaltending12% of the signaleven.165vs.165GSAx / 60
- Projected lineupsfavors WSH.294vs.3555v5 xG impact / 60 of the dressed skaters
- Home icefavors WSHWSH at home
Gridpex NHL model v2026.09.28 · ratings as of
Goaltending
projected startersLightning
Andrei Vasilevskiy+0.22 GSAx/6085% to start725 career GP
Dennis Hildeby+0.08 GSAx/609% to start26 career GP
Mads Sogaard-0.45 GSAx/606% to start31 career GP
Capitals
Logan Thompson+0.33 GSAx/6057% to start218 career GP
Charlie Lindgren-0.05 GSAx/6040% to start175 career GP
Clay Stevenson-0.01 GSAx/602% to start5 career GP
GSAx/60: goals saved above expected per 60 minutes, from our shot model — above zero is better than an average goalie facing the same shots.
Coaches: TBL Jon Cooper · WSH Spencer Carbery
Leaders
vs- Points
N. Kucherov130
A. Tuch66 - GoalsA. Tuch33
- Assists
Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).