Capitals at Lightning — Preview, Win Probability & Shot Map | Gridpex

Capitals at Lightning

Washington Capitals(43-30-9)

Tampa Bay Lightning(50-26-6)

Tue, Nov 17, 7:30 PM ESTTV ESPN+, HULU·Benchmark International Arena

Our win probability

and the three reasons

43%

Capitals

to win

57%

Lightning

Expected goals: 2.8–3.2
Goes to overtime: 22%

← favors

favors

→

Ability to win22% of the signalfavors TBL
.516vs.523win rate (OT = tie)
Scoring chances66% of the signalfavors TBL
.013vs.1255v5 xG diff / 60
Goaltending12% of the signaleven
.165vs.165GSAx / 60
Projected lineupsfavors WSH
.355vs.2945v5 xG impact / 60 of the dressed skaters
Home icefavors TBL
TBL at home

Gridpex NHL model v2026.09.28 · ratings as of Sep 28

Goaltending

projected starters

Capitals

Logan Thompson+0.33 GSAx/60
57% to start218 career GP
Charlie Lindgren-0.05 GSAx/60
40% to start175 career GP
Clay Stevenson-0.01 GSAx/60
2% to start5 career GP

Lightning

Andrei Vasilevskiy+0.22 GSAx/60
85% to start725 career GP
Dennis Hildeby+0.08 GSAx/60
9% to start26 career GP
Mads Sogaard-0.45 GSAx/60
6% to start31 career GP

GSAx/60: goals saved above expected per 60 minutes, from our shot model — above zero is better than an average goalie facing the same shots.

Coaches: WSH Spencer Carbery · TBL Jon Cooper

Leaders

vs

A. Tuch
66
Points
N. Kucherov
130
A. Tuch
33
Goals
N. Kucherov
44
D. Strome
39
Assists
N. Kucherov
86

Season

2025-26 regular season · league rank of 32

3.1815th
Goals for / game: 4th3.49; 2.907th
Goals against / game: 3rd2.79; 17.8%25th
Power play: 17th20.7%; 80.1%14th
Penalty kill: 3rd82.6%; 49.3%20th
Faceoffs: 28th47.4%

Season series

first meeting

Oct 3@
Nov 17@this game
Mar 15@

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).

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