Washington Capitals at Tampa Bay Lightning
TV The Spot, MNMT·Benchmark International Arena
Our win probability
and the three reasons
37%Capitals
to win
63%
Lightning
- Expected goals
- 2.6–3.4
- Goes to overtime
- 21%
← favors favors →
favors →- Ability to win22% of the signalfavors TBL.516vs.523win rate (OT = tie)
- Scoring chances66% of the signalfavors TBL.013vs.1255v5 xG diff / 60
- Goaltending12% of the signaleven.165vs.165GSAx / 60
- Home icefavors TBLTBL at home
- Back-to-backfavors WSHWSH played yesterday
Gridpex NHL model v2026.09.28 · ratings as of
Goaltending
projected startersCapitals
Logan Thompson+0.33 GSAx/6057% to start218 career GP
Charlie Lindgren-0.05 GSAx/6040% to start175 career GP
Clay Stevenson-0.01 GSAx/602% to start5 career GP
Lightning
Andrei Vasilevskiy+0.22 GSAx/6085% to start725 career GP
Dennis Hildeby+0.08 GSAx/609% to start26 career GP
Mads Sogaard-0.45 GSAx/606% to start31 career GP
GSAx/60: goals saved above expected per 60 minutes, from our shot model — above zero is better than an average goalie facing the same shots.
Coaches: WSH Spencer Carbery · TBL Jon Cooper
Leaders
vs- Points
A. Tuch66
N. Kucherov130 - GoalsA. Tuch33
- Assists
Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).