Washington Capitals at New York Rangers
TV MNMT, MSG·Madison Square Garden
Our win probability
and the three reasons
44%Capitals
to win
56%
Rangers
- Expected goals
- 2.8–3.2
- Goes to overtime
- 22%
← favors favors →
favors →- Ability to win22% of the signalfavors WSH.516vs.476win rate (OT = tie)
- Scoring chances66% of the signalfavors WSH.013vs-.0575v5 xG diff / 60
- Goaltending12% of the signalfavors WSH.165vs.112GSAx / 60
- Home icefavors NYRNYR at home
- Back-to-backfavors WSHWSH played yesterday
Gridpex NHL model v2026.09.28 · ratings as of
Goaltending
projected startersCapitals
Logan Thompson+0.33 GSAx/6057% to start218 career GP
Charlie Lindgren-0.05 GSAx/6040% to start175 career GP
Clay Stevenson-0.01 GSAx/602% to start5 career GP
Rangers
Igor Shesterkin+0.33 GSAx/6058% to start369 career GP
Joonas Korpisalo-0.19 GSAx/6041% to start350 career GP
GSAx/60: goals saved above expected per 60 minutes, from our shot model — above zero is better than an average goalie facing the same shots.
Coaches: WSH Spencer Carbery · NYR Mike Sullivan
Leaders
vs
Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).