New York Rangers at Washington Capitals
TV MNMT, MSG·Capital One Arena
Our win probability
and the three reasons
43%Rangers
to win
57%
Capitals
- Expected goals
- 2.8–3.2
- Goes to overtime
- 22%
← favors favors →
favors →- Ability to win22% of the signalfavors WSH.476vs.516win rate (OT = tie)
- Scoring chances66% of the signalfavors WSH-.057vs.0135v5 xG diff / 60
- Goaltending12% of the signalfavors WSH.112vs.165GSAx / 60
- Home icefavors WSHWSH at home
Gridpex NHL model v2026.09.28 · ratings as of
Goaltending
projected startersRangers
Igor Shesterkin+0.33 GSAx/6058% to start369 career GP
Joonas Korpisalo-0.19 GSAx/6041% to start350 career GP
Capitals
Logan Thompson+0.33 GSAx/6057% to start218 career GP
Charlie Lindgren-0.05 GSAx/6040% to start175 career GP
Clay Stevenson-0.01 GSAx/602% to start5 career GP
GSAx/60: goals saved above expected per 60 minutes, from our shot model — above zero is better than an average goalie facing the same shots.
Coaches: NYR Mike Sullivan · WSH Spencer Carbery
Leaders
vs
Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).