Rangers at Capitals — Preview, Win Probability & Shot Map | Gridpex

Rangers at Capitals

New York Rangers(34-39-9)

Washington Capitals(43-30-9)

Fri, Oct 9, 7:00 PM EDTTV NHLN, MNMT·Capital One Arena

Our win probability

and the three reasons

43%

Rangers

to win

57%

Capitals

Expected goals: 2.8–3.2
Goes to overtime: 22%

← favors

favors

→

Ability to win22% of the signalfavors WSH
.476vs.516win rate (OT = tie)
Scoring chances66% of the signalfavors WSH
-.057vs.0135v5 xG diff / 60
Goaltending12% of the signalfavors WSH
.112vs.165GSAx / 60
Home icefavors WSH
WSH at home

Gridpex NHL model v2026.09.28 · ratings as of Sep 28

Goaltending

projected starters

Rangers

Igor Shesterkin+0.33 GSAx/60
58% to start369 career GP
Joonas Korpisalo-0.19 GSAx/60
41% to start350 career GP

Capitals

Logan Thompson+0.33 GSAx/60
57% to start218 career GP
Charlie Lindgren-0.05 GSAx/60
40% to start175 career GP
Clay Stevenson-0.01 GSAx/60
2% to start5 career GP

GSAx/60: goals saved above expected per 60 minutes, from our shot model — above zero is better than an average goalie facing the same shots.

Coaches: NYR Mike Sullivan · WSH Spencer Carbery

Leaders

vs

M. Zibanejad
78
Points
A. Tuch
66
P. Dorofeyev
37
Goals
A. Tuch
33
M. Zibanejad
44
Assists
D. Strome
39

Season

2025-26 regular season · league rank of 32

2.8723rd
Goals for / game: 15th3.18; 3.0415th
Goals against / game: 7th2.90; 24.7%5th
Power play: 25th17.8%; 79.9%15th
Penalty kill: 14th80.1%; 54.5%1st
Faceoffs: 20th49.3%

Season series

first meeting

Oct 9@this game
Feb 23@
Feb 26@
Mar 21@

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).

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