Dallas Stars at San Jose Sharks
TV Prime Video, NBCSCA·SAP Center at San Jose
Our win probability
and the three reasons
55%Stars
to win
45%
Sharks
- Expected goals
- 3.1–2.9
- Goes to overtime
- 22%
← favors favors →
favors →- Ability to win22% of the signalfavors DAL.527vs.479win rate (OT = tie)
- Scoring chances66% of the signalfavors DAL.038vs-.1145v5 xG diff / 60
- Goaltending12% of the signalfavors DAL.109vs-.137GSAx / 60
- Projected lineupsfavors DAL.390vs.0775v5 xG impact / 60 of the dressed skaters
- Home icefavors SJSSJS at home
Gridpex NHL model v2026.09.28 · ratings as of
Goaltending
projected startersStars
Jake Oettinger+0.12 GSAx/6065% to start376 career GP
Casey DeSmith+0.09 GSAx/6035% to start225 career GP
Sharks
Alex Nedeljkovic-0.08 GSAx/6043% to start228 career GP
Ilya Samsonov-0.12 GSAx/6036% to start222 career GP
Yaroslav Askarov-0.28 GSAx/6020% to start63 career GP
GSAx/60: goals saved above expected per 60 minutes, from our shot model — above zero is better than an average goalie facing the same shots.
Coaches: DAL Glen Gulutzan · SJS Ryan Warsofsky
Leaders
vs- Points
M. Celebrini115 - Goals
- Assists
Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).