San Jose Sharks at Dallas Stars
TV Prime Video, NBCSCA·American Airlines Center
Our win probability
and the three reasons
34%Sharks
to win
66%
Stars
- Expected goals
- 2.5–3.5
- Goes to overtime
- 20%
← favors favors →
favors →- Ability to win22% of the signalfavors DAL.479vs.527win rate (OT = tie)
- Scoring chances66% of the signalfavors DAL-.114vs.0385v5 xG diff / 60
- Goaltending12% of the signalfavors DAL-.137vs.109GSAx / 60
- Projected lineupsfavors DAL.077vs.3905v5 xG impact / 60 of the dressed skaters
- Home icefavors DALDAL at home
- Back-to-backfavors SJSSJS played yesterday
Gridpex NHL model v2026.09.28 · ratings as of
Goaltending
projected startersSharks
Alex Nedeljkovic-0.08 GSAx/6043% to start228 career GP
Ilya Samsonov-0.12 GSAx/6036% to start222 career GP
Yaroslav Askarov-0.28 GSAx/6020% to start63 career GP
Stars
Jake Oettinger+0.12 GSAx/6065% to start376 career GP
Casey DeSmith+0.09 GSAx/6035% to start225 career GP
GSAx/60: goals saved above expected per 60 minutes, from our shot model — above zero is better than an average goalie facing the same shots.
Coaches: SJS Ryan Warsofsky · DAL Glen Gulutzan
Leaders
vs- Points
M. Celebrini115 - Goals
- Assists
Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).