Sharks at Stars — Preview, Win Probability & Shot Map | Gridpex

Sharks at Stars

San Jose Sharks(39-35-8)

Dallas Stars(50-20-12)

Mon, Oct 5, 8:00 PM EDTTV Prime Video, NBCSCA·American Airlines Center

Our win probability

and the three reasons

38%

Sharks

to win

62%

Stars

Expected goals: 2.6–3.4
Goes to overtime: 21%

← favors

favors

→

Ability to win22% of the signalfavors DAL
.479vs.527win rate (OT = tie)
Scoring chances66% of the signalfavors DAL
-.114vs.0385v5 xG diff / 60
Goaltending12% of the signalfavors DAL
-.137vs.109GSAx / 60
Home icefavors DAL
DAL at home

Gridpex NHL model v2026.09.28 · ratings as of Sep 28

Goaltending

projected starters

Sharks

Alex Nedeljkovic-0.08 GSAx/60
43% to start228 career GP
Ilya Samsonov-0.12 GSAx/60
36% to start222 career GP
Yaroslav Askarov-0.28 GSAx/60
20% to start63 career GP

Stars

Jake Oettinger+0.12 GSAx/60
65% to start376 career GP
Casey DeSmith+0.09 GSAx/60
35% to start225 career GP

GSAx/60: goals saved above expected per 60 minutes, from our shot model — above zero is better than an average goalie facing the same shots.

Coaches: SJS Ryan Warsofsky · DAL Glen Gulutzan

Leaders

vs

Season

2025-26 regular season · league rank of 32

3.0417th
Goals for / game: 9th3.33; 3.5430th
Goals against / game: 2nd2.71; 21.2%16th
Power play: 2nd28.6%; 76.4%26th
Penalty kill: 13th80.3%; 47.8%26th
Faceoffs: 7th51.6%

Season series

first meeting

Oct 5@this game
Nov 7@
Jan 6@

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).

Sign in to join the chat.