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Maple Leafs at Senators
NHL

Toronto Maple Leafs at Ottawa Senators

NHL scoreboard
Toronto Maple Leafs
▸4
Ottawa Senators
2
FinalTV NHLN, TSN5·Canadian Tire Centre

Recap

written from the game data

The Toronto Maple Leafs beat the Ottawa Senators 4-2. The Maple Leafs scored first and never trailed. It was tied 1-1 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Ryan Tverberg's goal at 15:43 of the third period, which took the Maple Leafs' chances from 48% to 90%. Expected goals favored the Maple Leafs, 3.4 to 1.1; shots on goal were TOR 24, OTT 21. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Maple Leafs win a replay of these chances 82% of the time. Anthony Stolarz stopped 19 of 21 (.905), 0.8 goals below expected; Linus Ullmark stopped 20 of 23 (.870). Three stars: 1. Ryan Tverberg (1 G), 2. Hoyt Stanley (1 G), 3. Steven Lorentz (1 G).

Three stars

  1. ★
    TOR
    R. Tverberg1 G
  2. ★★
    OTT
    H. Stanley1 G
  3. ★★★
    TOR
    S. Lorentz1 G

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdT
TORTOR04110310424
OTTOTT051818221

Scoring

6 goals

2nd period

  1. TOR
    H. Rybinski(2)PPG
    V. Lettieri (1), N. Blankenburg (1)
    snapxG 0.07win prob +12 ptsVideo
    1-0
    3:51
  2. OTT
    D. Cozens(2)
    Unassisted
    wristxG 0.15win prob +17 ptsVideo
    1-1
    6:18

3rd period

  1. TOR
    S. Lorentz(1)
    M. Rifai (1), B. Duhaime (1)
    tip-inxG 0.12win prob +24 ptsVideo
    2-1
    10:01
  2. OTT
    H. Stanley(1)
    T. Hamara (1), C. Giroux (1)
    backhandxG 0.10win prob +24 ptsVideo
    2-2
    10:42
  3. TOR
    R. Tverberg(1)
    J. Quillan (1), B. Smith (1)
    snapxG 0.10win prob +41 ptsVideo
    3-2
    15:43
  4. TOR
    T. Blueger(1)EN
    Unassisted
    snapxG 0.48win prob +1 ptsVideo
    4-2
    19:52

Penalties

TOR 24 PIM·OTT 30 PIM

1st

  • 5:14OTTMatthew Andonovski · Fightingdrawn by Landon Sim5 min
  • 5:14TORLandon Sim · Fightingdrawn by Matthew Andonovski5 min
  • 14:39TORMarshall Rifai · Holdingdrawn by William Eklund2 min
  • 18:32OTTBen Hutton · Holdingdrawn by Brandon Duhaime2 min

2nd

  • 3:36OTTSammy Blais · Trippingdrawn by Landon Sim2 min
  • 7:58TORBrendan Brisson · Unsportsmanlike conductdrawn by Sammy Blais2 min
  • 7:58OTTSammy Blais · Fightingdrawn by Brendan Brisson5 min
  • 7:58TORBrendan Brisson · Fightingdrawn by Sammy Blais5 min
  • 13:59OTTXavier Bourgault · Trippingdrawn by Miroslav Holinka2 min

3rd

  • 0:33OTTCameron Crotty · Fightingdrawn by Brandon Duhaime5 min
  • 0:33TORBrandon Duhaime · Fightingdrawn by Cameron Crotty5 min
  • 7:24OTTNick Cousins · Cross checkingdrawn by Landon Sim2 min
  • 7:24OTTNick Cousins · Fightingdrawn by Landon Sim5 min
  • 7:24TORLandon Sim · Fightingdrawn by Nick Cousins5 min
  • 19:24OTTDylan Cozens · Roughingdrawn by Philippe Myers2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
OTT goalTOR goalFinal: OTT 0%

Biggest swing: Ryan Tverberg, 3rd 15:43 — TOR 48% → 90%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
D. Cozens · Goal · xG 0.15W. Eklund · Missed · xG 0.15H. Stanley · Goal · xG 0.10S. Halliday · On goal · xG 0.10T. Hamara · On goal · xG 0.08N. Cousins · On goal · xG 0.08C. Giroux · On goal · xG 0.08R. Greig · On goal · xG 0.07N. Cousins · Missed · xG 0.04T. Boucher · Missed · xG 0.04W. Eklund · Missed · xG 0.04S. Blais · Missed · xG 0.04B. Hutton · On goal · xG 0.03S. Blais · On goal · xG 0.02D. Cozens · Missed · xG 0.02X. Bourgault · On goal · xG 0.02D. Toure · On goal · xG 0.02H. Stanley · On goal · xG 0.02D. Toure · On goal · xG 0.02C. Crotty · Missed · xG 0.01C. Giroux · On goal · xG 0.01N. Cousins · Missed · xG 0.01F. Zetterlund · On goal · xG 0.01R. Greig · Missed · xG 0.01B. Hutton · On goal · xG 0.00C. Crotty · On goal · xG 0.00M. Andonovski · On goal · xG 0.00R. Greig · On goal · xG 0.00B. Hutton · On goal · xG 0.00T. Hamara · On goal · xG 0.00
OTT2 G · 1.1 xG · 30 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

TORvsOTT
3.43 G
All situations
2 G1.1
1.62 G
Even strength
2 G1.0
1.41 G
Power play
0 G0.1
0.00 G
Shorthanded
0 G0.0

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 64 unblocked attempts. Empty-net goals are left out of the goal counts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
TOR82%18%OTT

Flurry-adjusted xG 2.90 – 1.15

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

TORvsOTT
24
Shots on goal
21
43%
Faceoffs
57%
2/5
Power play
0/2
24
Penalty minutes
30
11
Hits
30
8
Blocked shots
10
10
Giveaways
14
3
Takeaways
3

Box score

every player line
Toronto Maple Leafs skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
83M. RifaiD011+100.01002—22:32
38B. DanfordD000+210.13010—21:40
71V. LettieriC011-140.3200010019:44
51P. MyersD000-120.08110—19:40
55E. AndraeD000-110.03100—19:35
59B. SmithD011-100.00310—17:00
73T. BluegerC101+130.672005416:51
18S. LorentzC101+110.20000016:41
26J. QuillanC011+130.77110016:01
98M. HolinkaC000-100.04000—15:40
33T. KoblarC000-120.200005015:39
54H. RybinskiR101-120.370205015:28
77R. TverbergC101+110.18000—15:28
90B. BrissonC000-110.11007—14:52
3N. BlankenburgD011000.00110—14:01
24B. DuhaimeL011+110.05005—13:11
37L. HaymesC000+100.120102912:57
42L. SimR000-120.152010—09:00
Toronto Maple Leafs goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
41A. Stolarz(W)21192.9051.15-0.8560:00

Season series

first meeting

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).