Toronto Maple Leafs at Ottawa Senators
TV Prime·Canadian Tire Centre
Our win probability
and the three reasons
38%Maple Leafs
to win
62%
Senators
- Expected goals
- 2.6–3.4
- Goes to overtime
- 21%
← favors favors →
favors →- Ability to win22% of the signalfavors OTT.479vs.515win rate (OT = tie)
- Scoring chances66% of the signalfavors OTT-.113vs.1075v5 xG diff / 60
- Goaltending12% of the signalfavors TOR.052vs-.066GSAx / 60
- Projected lineupsfavors OTT-.105vs.6095v5 xG impact / 60 of the dressed skaters
- Home icefavors OTTOTT at home
Gridpex NHL model v2026.09.28 · ratings as of
Goaltending
projected startersMaple Leafs
Sergei Bobrovsky-0.01 GSAx/6070% to start923 career GP
Anthony Stolarz+0.20 GSAx/6030% to start176 career GP
Senators
Linus Ullmark+0.09 GSAx/6062% to start360 career GP
Samuel Ersson-0.33 GSAx/6038% to start143 career GP
GSAx/60: goals saved above expected per 60 minutes, from our shot model — above zero is better than an average goalie facing the same shots.
Coaches: TOR Jim Hiller · OTT Travis Green
Leaders
vs- Points
- Goals
- Assists
Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).