Ottawa Senators at Toronto Maple Leafs
TV SN, TVAS2·Scotiabank Arena
Our win probability
and the three reasons
55%Senators
to win
45%
Maple Leafs
- Expected goals
- 3.2–2.8
- Goes to overtime
- 22%
← favors favors →
favors →- Ability to win22% of the signalfavors OTT.515vs.479win rate (OT = tie)
- Scoring chances66% of the signalfavors OTT.107vs-.1135v5 xG diff / 60
- Goaltending12% of the signalfavors TOR-.066vs.052GSAx / 60
- Projected lineupsfavors OTT.609vs-.1055v5 xG impact / 60 of the dressed skaters
- Home icefavors TORTOR at home
Gridpex NHL model v2026.09.28 · ratings as of
Goaltending
projected startersSenators
Linus Ullmark+0.09 GSAx/6062% to start360 career GP
Samuel Ersson-0.33 GSAx/6038% to start143 career GP
Maple Leafs
Sergei Bobrovsky-0.01 GSAx/6070% to start923 career GP
Anthony Stolarz+0.20 GSAx/6030% to start176 career GP
GSAx/60: goals saved above expected per 60 minutes, from our shot model — above zero is better than an average goalie facing the same shots.
Coaches: OTT Travis Green · TOR Jim Hiller
Leaders
vs- Points
- Goals
- Assists
Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).