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Senators at Maple Leafs
NHL

Ottawa Senators at Toronto Maple Leafs

NHL scoreboard
Ottawa Senators
1
Toronto Maple Leafs
▸6
FinalTV SN1·Scotiabank Arena

Recap

written from the game data

The Toronto Maple Leafs beat the Ottawa Senators 6-1. The Senators scored first; the Maple Leafs answered. The Maple Leafs led 5-1 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was John Tavares's goal at 19:09 of the first period, which took the Maple Leafs' chances from 53% to 68%. Expected goals favored the Maple Leafs, 3.8 to 2.0; shots on goal were OTT 14, TOR 36. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Maple Leafs win a replay of these chances 76% of the time. Leevi Meriläinen stopped 21 of 27 (.778), 2.8 goals below expected; Sergei Bobrovsky stopped 13 of 14 (.929), 1.0 goals saved above expected. Three stars: 1. John Tavares (1 G, 2 A), 2. Jack Roslovic (1 G, 2 A), 3. Auston Matthews (1 G, 2 A).

Three stars

  1. ★
    TOR
    J. Tavares1 G, 2 A
  2. ★★
    TOR
    J. Roslovic1 G, 2 A
  3. ★★★
    TOR
    A. Matthews1 G, 2 A

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdT
OTTOTT140505114
TORTOR210315111636

Scoring

7 goals

1st period

  1. OTT
    T. Stützle(1)
    A. Burakovsky (1), C. Kyrou (1)
    backhandxG 0.15win prob +12 ptsVideo
    1-0
    6:35
  2. TOR
    J. McCabe(1)
    J. Tavares (2), J. Roslovic (1)
    wristxG 0.30win prob +12 ptsVideo
    1-1
    7:45
  3. TOR
    J. Tavares(1)
    W. Nylander (1), G. McKenna (1)
    wristxG 0.07win prob +15 ptsVideo
    1-2
    19:09

2nd period

  1. TOR
    J. Roslovic(1)PPG
    J. Tavares (3), A. Matthews (2)
    wristxG 0.29win prob +11 ptsVideo
    1-3
    4:49
  2. TOR
    Z. MacEwen(1)
    E. Cowan (2)
    wristxG 0.24win prob +7 ptsVideo
    1-4
    16:53
  3. TOR
    M. Rielly(1)
    D. Raddysh (1), A. Matthews (3)
    snapxG 0.11win prob +2 ptsVideo
    1-5
    19:13

3rd period

  1. TOR
    A. Matthews(1)
    J. Roslovic (2), O. Ekman-Larsson (2)
    snapxG 0.12Video
    1-6
    6:10

Penalties

OTT 31 PIM·TOR 33 PIM

2nd

  • 4:24OTTKasper Halttunen · Hookingdrawn by Gavin McKenna2 min
  • 7:36TORDarren Raddysh · Interferencedrawn by Kasper Halttunen2 min

3rd

  • 1:31TORJohn Tavares · Slashingdrawn by Shane Pinto2 min
  • 3:18TOROliver Ekman-Larsson · Trippingdrawn by Tim Stützle2 min
  • 5:28TORZack MacEwen · Fightingdrawn by Hayden Hodgson5 min
  • 5:28OTTHayden Hodgson · Fightingdrawn by Zack MacEwen5 min
  • 18:31TORMichael Pezzetta · Interferencedrawn by Carter Yakemchuk2 min
  • 18:31OTTTyler Kleven · Misconduct10 min
  • 18:31TORMichael Pezzetta · Misconduct10 min
  • 18:59OTTHayden Hodgson · Roughingdrawn by Zack MacEwen2 min
  • 18:59OTTHayden Hodgson · Interference goalkeeperdrawn by Sergei Bobrovsky2 min
  • 18:59OTTHayden Hodgson · Misconduct10 min
  • 18:59TORZack MacEwen · Misconduct10 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
TOR goalOTT goalFinal: TOR 100%

Biggest swing: John Tavares, 1st 19:09 — TOR 53% → 68%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
J. McCabe · Goal · xG 0.30J. Roslovic · Goal · xG 0.29J. Roslovic · Missed · xG 0.25Z. MacEwen · Goal · xG 0.24J. Tavares · On goal · xG 0.21W. Nylander · On goal · xG 0.18J. Tavares · Missed · xG 0.17C. Sissons · On goal · xG 0.14A. Matthews · Goal · xG 0.12W. Nylander · On goal · xG 0.12J. Tavares · On goal · xG 0.12M. Rielly · Goal · xG 0.11O. Ekman-Larsson · Missed · xG 0.10A. Matthews · On goal · xG 0.10N. Paul · On goal · xG 0.09J. Tavares · Missed · xG 0.09W. Nylander · Missed · xG 0.08J. Roslovic · On goal · xG 0.07J. Tavares · Goal · xG 0.07G. McKenna · Missed · xG 0.06D. Raddysh · On goal · xG 0.06M. Rielly · On goal · xG 0.05A. Matthews · On goal · xG 0.05J. Roslovic · Missed · xG 0.05G. McKenna · Missed · xG 0.05G. McKenna · On goal · xG 0.04M. Knies · On goal · xG 0.04O. Ekman-Larsson · On goal · xG 0.04J. Roslovic · On goal · xG 0.04J. Tavares · On goal · xG 0.04M. Knies · Missed · xG 0.04M. Pezzetta · Missed · xG 0.03W. Nylander · On goal · xG 0.03T. Stecher · On goal · xG 0.03T. Stecher · Missed · xG 0.03Z. MacEwen · Missed · xG 0.02J. Tavares · On goal · xG 0.02E. Cowan · On goal · xG 0.02W. Nylander · Missed · xG 0.02J. McCabe · Missed · xG 0.02J. McCabe · On goal · xG 0.02O. Ekman-Larsson · Missed · xG 0.01B. Groulx · Missed · xG 0.01E. Cowan · Missed · xG 0.01T. Stecher · On goal · xG 0.01M. Pezzetta · On goal · xG 0.01A. Matthews · On goal · xG 0.01M. Rielly · On goal · xG 0.01B. Groulx · On goal · xG 0.01M. Rielly · On goal · xG 0.01D. Raddysh · Missed · xG 0.01J. Roslovic · On goal · xG 0.00T. Stecher · On goal · xG 0.00C. Tanev · On goal · xG 0.00
TOR6 G · 3.8 xG · 54 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

OTTvsTOR
2.01 G
All situations
6 G3.8
1.11 G
Even strength
5 G3.3
0.90 G
Power play
1 G0.5

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 80 unblocked attempts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
OTT24%76%TOR

Flurry-adjusted xG 1.98 – 3.58

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

OTTvsTOR
14
Shots on goal
36
43%
Faceoffs
57%
0/4
Power play
1/3
31
Penalty minutes
33
26
Hits
23
6
Blocked shots
11
15
Giveaways
18
2
Takeaways
6

Box score

every player line
Ottawa Senators skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
26C. YakemchukD000010.19300—25:29
18T. StützleC101-220.572202421:29
43T. KlevenD000000.001010—20:12
95A. BurakovskyL011-220.27010—19:08
19D. BathersonR000-200.00000—18:51
62P. TomasinoR000-130.22010—18:50
15C. KyrouD011-100.00010—18:47
64S. HarringtonD000010.02100—17:13
58S. BolducD000-400.03100—16:46
22M. AmadioR000010.095005016:26
33N. MatinpaloD000-310.20000—15:57
12S. PintoC000-110.170006315:46
92P. DaoustC000-100.002002915:43
67E. Bakke OlsenC000000.002004413:38
68K. HalttunenR000020.20102—13:22
63O. PetterssonR000-200.05110—12:25
42H. HodgsonR000-100.005019—09:53
91L. EllinasL000000.00200—08:39
Ottawa Senators goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
1L. Meriläinen(L)27216.7783.16-2.8446:10
31J. Parsons9901.0000.59+0.5913:50

Season series

first meeting

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).