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Avalanche at Jets
NHL

Colorado Avalanche at Winnipeg Jets

NHL scoreboard
Colorado Avalanche
1
Winnipeg Jets
▸3
FinalCanada Life Centre

Recap

written from the game data

The Winnipeg Jets beat the Colorado Avalanche 3-1. The Jets scored first and never trailed. The Jets led 2-0 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Cole Perfetti's goal at 18:50 of the second period, which took the Jets' chances from 75% to 91%. Expected goals favored the Jets, 3.3 to 2.7; shots on goal were COL 32, WPG 19. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Jets win a replay of these chances 58% of the time. Scott Wedgewood stopped 13 of 14 (.929), 1.6 goals saved above expected; Stuart Skinner stopped 31 of 32 (.969), 1.7 goals saved above expected.

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdT
COLCOL04011117132
WPGWPG191614319

Scoring

4 goals

1st period

  1. WPG
    G. Vilardi(1)
    I. Rosen (1), V. Namestnikov (1)
    snapxG 0.08win prob +15 pts
    0-1
    18:55

2nd period

  1. WPG
    C. Perfetti(1)
    M. Scheifele (1), J. Morrissey (1)
    wristxG 0.06win prob +16 pts
    0-2
    18:50

3rd period

  1. WPG
    D. DeMelo(1)
    G. Vilardi (1), J. Morrissey (2)
    wristxG 0.01win prob +5 pts
    0-3
    6:37
  2. COL
    G. Merkulov(1)
    F. Lysell (1), B. Kulak (1)
    wristxG 0.27win prob +1 pts
    1-3
    14:34

Penalties

COL 6 PIM·WPG 8 PIM

1st

  • 9:03COLBrett Kulak · Hookingdrawn by Kyle Connor2 min

2nd

  • 2:34WPGDavis Burnside · Hookingdrawn by Vinnie Hinostroza2 min
  • 11:13WPGVladislav Namestnikov · Roughingdrawn by Fabian Lysell2 min
  • 11:13COLFabian Lysell · Cross checkingdrawn by Mario Ferraro2 min
  • 12:16WPGserved by Davis Burnside · Too many men on the ice2 min

3rd

  • 1:51COLFabian Lysell · High stickingdrawn by Henry Thrun2 min
  • 17:21WPGGabriel Vilardi · Trippingdrawn by Adam Beckman2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
WPG goalCOL goalFinal: WPG 100%

Biggest swing: Cole Perfetti, 2nd 18:50 — WPG 75% → 91%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
N. Gregor · Missed · xG 0.57C. Koepke · On goal · xG 0.39M. Ferraro · Missed · xG 0.34K. Connor · On goal · xG 0.16D. Burnside · Missed · xG 0.15N. Gregor · On goal · xG 0.15C. Koepke · On goal · xG 0.13G. Vilardi · On goal · xG 0.13C. Koepke · On goal · xG 0.12D. Burnside · On goal · xG 0.12D. Burnside · Missed · xG 0.11G. Vilardi · Goal · xG 0.08K. Connor · On goal · xG 0.07I. Rosen · On goal · xG 0.07V. Björck · Missed · xG 0.07J. Morrissey · On goal · xG 0.07C. Perfetti · Goal · xG 0.06M. Scheifele · Missed · xG 0.06I. Rosen · Missed · xG 0.06V. Namestnikov · On goal · xG 0.06N. Gregor · On goal · xG 0.05K. Connor · Missed · xG 0.05N. Gregor · Missed · xG 0.04J. Morrissey · Missed · xG 0.03K. Walton · Missed · xG 0.03V. Namestnikov · On goal · xG 0.03V. Björck · On goal · xG 0.02M. Ferraro · Missed · xG 0.02K. Connor · Missed · xG 0.02D. DeMelo · Goal · xG 0.02H. Thrun · Missed · xG 0.01J. Julien · On goal · xG 0.01K. Walton · On goal · xG 0.00
WPG3 G · 3.3 xG · 33 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

COLvsWPG
2.71 G
All situations
3 G3.3
1.81 G
Even strength
3 G1.8
0.90 G
Power play
0 G0.5
0.00 G
Shorthanded
0 G1.0

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 78 unblocked attempts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
COL42%58%WPG

Flurry-adjusted xG 2.61 – 3.04

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

COLvsWPG
32
Shots on goal
19
50%
Faceoffs
50%
0/3
Power play
0/2
6
Penalty minutes
8
23
Hits
29
19
Blocked shots
11
14
Giveaways
18
4
Takeaways
6

Box score

every player line
Colorado Avalanche skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
70S. MalinskiD000010.02130—24:25
27B. KulakD011010.00002—20:45
10N. RoyC000030.361106718:18
47N. JuulsenD000-100.01330—18:10
9F. SvechkovC000020.040104017:49
25L. O'ConnorR000-310.390106717:36
86C. WolaninD000-100.00000—17:24
28A. GagneD000-120.04420—17:00
17P. KellyC000-300.001104316:32
49G. MerkulovC101+130.36000016:23
34A. BeckmanL000+130.532105016:03
57T. NielsenC000010.14240—15:22
44G. StjernbergD000-120.08200—15:21
22F. LysellR011+130.2210410015:16
18V. HinostrozaC000050.0800010013:53
16T. MakarL000-220.17310—13:21
68Z. L'HeureuxL000-120.13310—12:00
85N. PrishchepovC000010.130004011:01
Colorado Avalanche goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
41S. Wedgewood14131.9292.59+1.5931:13
30I. Nabokov(L)532.6000.73-1.2726:08

Season series

first meeting

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).