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Dallas Stars at St. Louis Blues

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Recap

written from the game data

The Dallas Stars beat the St. Louis Blues 2-1. The Stars scored first and never trailed. The Stars led 2-1 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Jack Becker's goal at 18:29 of the second period, which took the Stars' chances from 47% to 70%. Expected goals favored the Blues, 2.6 to 2.1; shots on goal were DAL 28, STL 24. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Blues win a replay of these chances 59% of the time. Rémi Poirier stopped 11 of 12 (.917); Jordan Binnington stopped 16 of 18 (.889), 0.7 goals below expected. Three stars: 1. Jack Becker (1 G), 2. Arttu Hyry (1 G), 3. Aleksanteri Kaskimaki (1 G).

Three stars

  1. ★
    DAL
    J. Becker1 G
  2. ★★
    DAL
    A. Hyry1 G
  3. ★★★
    STL
    A. Kaskimaki1 G

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdT
DALDAL11216010228
STLSTL0616012124

Scoring

3 goals

1st period

  1. DAL
    wristxG 0.21win prob +11 ptsVideo
    1-0
    0:16

2nd period

  1. STL
    snapxG 0.13win prob +20 ptsVideo
    1-1
    13:30
  2. DAL
    Unassisted
    wristxG 0.15win prob +23 ptsVideo
    2-1
    18:29

Penalties

DAL 16 PIM·STL 18 PIM

1st

  • 8:08STLAleksanteri Kaskimaki · Hookingdrawn by Jakub Vaněček2 min
  • 15:17STLJustin Carbonneau · Kneeingdrawn by Kyle Burroughs2 min
  • 15:17DALJack Becker · Fightingdrawn by Quinton Burns5 min
  • 15:17STLQuinton Burns · Fightingdrawn by Jack Becker5 min

2nd

  • 1:01DALKyle Capobianco · Trippingdrawn by Zach Dean2 min
  • 3:43STLRoss Johnston · Roughingdrawn by Jakub Vaněček2 min
  • 19:01DALKyle Capobianco · Holdingdrawn by Justin Carbonneau2 min

3rd

  • 1:47DALKyle Burroughs · Cross checkingdrawn by Dylan Peterson2 min
  • 1:47DALKyle Burroughs · Fightingdrawn by Dylan Peterson5 min
  • 1:47STLDylan Peterson · Fightingdrawn by Kyle Burroughs5 min
  • 13:20STLRoss Johnston · Slashingdrawn by Brandon Halverson2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
STL goalDAL goalFinal: STL 0%

Biggest swing: Jack Becker, 2nd 18:29 — DAL 47% → 70%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
Z. Dean · On goal · xG 0.36P. Suter · On goal · xG 0.33A. Toropchenko · Missed · xG 0.20M. Dagenais · On goal · xG 0.15A. Kaskimaki · Goal · xG 0.13A. Kaskimaki · Missed · xG 0.13R. Johnston · On goal · xG 0.11R. Johnston · On goal · xG 0.10J. Stancl · On goal · xG 0.10J. Stancl · Missed · xG 0.08D. Peterson · On goal · xG 0.08Z. Dean · Missed · xG 0.07Z. Dean · Missed · xG 0.07M. Dagenais · On goal · xG 0.07R. Johnston · On goal · xG 0.07J. Finley · Missed · xG 0.06D. Peterson · Missed · xG 0.06J. Pekarcik · On goal · xG 0.06A. Kaskimaki · Missed · xG 0.06Z. Dean · On goal · xG 0.06M. Dagenais · On goal · xG 0.05J. Carbonneau · On goal · xG 0.03A. Koromyslov · Missed · xG 0.03J. Carbonneau · On goal · xG 0.03L. Fischer · Missed · xG 0.02A. Kaskimaki · On goal · xG 0.02L. Fischer · On goal · xG 0.02Z. Dean · Missed · xG 0.02D. Peterson · On goal · xG 0.01O. Stenberg · On goal · xG 0.01D. Peterson · On goal · xG 0.01J. Carbonneau · On goal · xG 0.01O. Stenberg · Missed · xG 0.01J. Carbonneau · On goal · xG 0.01L. Fischer · Missed · xG 0.01O. Stenberg · On goal · xG 0.00T. Tucker · On goal · xG 0.00
STL1 G · 2.6 xG · 37 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

DALvsSTL
2.12 G
All situations
1 G2.6
1.22 G
Even strength
1 G2.1
0.70 G
Power play
0 G0.5
0.30 G
Shorthanded
0 G0.0

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 76 unblocked attempts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
DAL41%59%STL

Flurry-adjusted xG 2.08 – 2.57

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

DALvsSTL
28
Shots on goal
24
51%
Faceoffs
49%
0/4
Power play
0/3
16
Penalty minutes
18
18
Hits
29
17
Blocked shots
11
14
Giveaways
18
4
Takeaways
2

Box score

every player line
Dallas Stars skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
20K. CapobiancoD000040.24024—22:06
27T. TaylorD000010.01030—21:49
70B. GleasonD000000.00120—21:45
25A. HyryR101+160.681006518:51
28K. BurroughsD000+120.03117—18:34
46D. HryckowianR000-120.01110—18:27
67A. ShlaineC000-100.001203318:18
40J. AndersonD011000.02000—18:05
65M. SgarbossaC000020.100005017:11
43M. SeminoffR000+130.34120—16:36
39E. HemmingR000-120.18100—16:29
34C. HughesC011+100.00410—15:59
38J. VaněčekD000+120.02000—14:03
63C. PaquetteR000010.02100—12:49
52C. FitzgeraldC000010.18100—10:56
72C. McKenzieL000+100.00420—10:48
62J. ErtelL000+110.09100—10:40
51J. BeckerC101+110.220156010:34
Dallas Stars goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
31R. Poirier(W)12111.9171.41+0.4140:00
33B. Halverson121201.0001.21+1.2120:00

Season series

first meeting

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).