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Avalanche at Golden Knights
NHL

Colorado Avalanche at Vegas Golden Knights

NHL scoreboard
Colorado Avalanche
3
Vegas Golden Knights
▸5
FinalTV ESPN, CBC·T-Mobile Arena

Recap

written from the game data

The Vegas Golden Knights beat the Colorado Avalanche 5-3. The Golden Knights came back from three goals down. It was tied 3-3 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Tomas Hertl's goal at 8:21 of the third period, which took the Golden Knights' chances from 52% to 82%. Expected goals favored the Golden Knights, 3.6 to 3.2; shots on goal were COL 35, VGK 23. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Avalanche win a replay of these chances 59% of the time. Scott Wedgewood stopped 18 of 22 (.818), 1.2 goals below expected; Carter Hart stopped 32 of 35 (.914). Three stars: 1. Tomas Hertl (1 G, 1 A), 2. Mark Stone (1 G, 1 A), 3. Mitch Marner (2 A).

Three stars

  1. ★
    VGK
    T. Hertl1 G, 1 A
  2. ★★
    VGK
    M. Stone1 G, 1 A
  3. ★★★
    VGK
    M. Marner2 A

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdT
COLCOL31601207335
VGKVGK073828523

Scoring

8 goals

1st period

  1. COL
    G. Landeskog(5)
    D. Toews (8), N. MacKinnon (8)
    wristxG 0.34win prob +12 ptsVideo
    1-0
    3:21
  2. COL
    N. Kadri(3)
    M. Necas (11), J. Manson (3)
    wristxG 0.07win prob +15 ptsVideo
    2-0
    7:03
  3. COL
    J. Drury(3)SHG
    P. Kelly (2), D. Toews (9)
    backhandxG 0.27win prob +12 ptsVideo
    3-0
    13:15

2nd period

  1. VGK
    M. Stone(4)PPG
    M. Marner (13), T. Hertl (6)
    wristxG 0.19win prob +9 ptsVideo
    3-1
    0:19
  2. VGK
    W. Karlsson(1)
    M. Marner (14)
    snapxG 0.23win prob +17 ptsVideo
    3-2
    4:05
  3. VGK
    K. Kolesar(1)
    D. Coghlan (1), K. Korczak (2)
    backhandxG 0.38win prob +20 ptsVideo
    3-3
    12:46

3rd period

  1. VGK
    T. Hertl(3)
    M. Stone (5), K. Korczak (3)
    backhandxG 0.03win prob +29 ptsVideo
    3-4
    8:21
  2. VGK
    B. Howden(10)EN
    W. Karlsson (4), S. Theodore (6)
    wristxG 0.53win prob +2 ptsVideo
    3-5
    19:01

Penalties

COL 18 PIM·VGK 10 PIM

1st

  • 9:31VGKCole Smith · Trippingdrawn by Josh Manson2 min
  • 11:28COLNazem Kadri · High stickingdrawn by Jack Eichel2 min
  • 17:09VGKRasmus Andersson · Hookingdrawn by Nathan MacKinnon2 min
  • 19:19COLBrock Nelson · Trippingdrawn by Tomas Hertl2 min

2nd

  • 5:28COLBrent Burns · Cross checkingdrawn by Pavel Dorofeyev2 min
  • 8:03VGKCole Smith · High stickingdrawn by Devon Toews2 min

3rd

  • 2:14VGKMark Stone · Slashingdrawn by Scott Wedgewood2 min
  • 2:14COLRoss Colton · Roughingdrawn by Mark Stone2 min
  • 9:54VGKMitch Marner · Trippingdrawn by Martin Necas2 min
  • 19:20COLRoss Colton · Misconduct10 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
VGK goalCOL goalFinal: VGK 100%

Biggest swing: Tomas Hertl, 3rd 8:21 — VGK 52% → 82%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
B. Howden · Goal · xG 0.53K. Kolesar · Goal · xG 0.38I. Barbashev · Missed · xG 0.33W. Karlsson · Goal · xG 0.23T. Hertl · Missed · xG 0.19M. Stone · Goal · xG 0.19C. Sissons · On goal · xG 0.14M. Stone · On goal · xG 0.13P. Dorofeyev · On goal · xG 0.13W. Karlsson · On goal · xG 0.13B. Howden · Missed · xG 0.12M. Stone · On goal · xG 0.11B. Howden · On goal · xG 0.11M. Marner · Missed · xG 0.10T. Hertl · On goal · xG 0.10T. Hertl · On goal · xG 0.09P. Dorofeyev · Missed · xG 0.09J. Eichel · On goal · xG 0.09K. Kolesar · Missed · xG 0.07M. Marner · On goal · xG 0.07J. Eichel · Missed · xG 0.04B. Howden · Missed · xG 0.03T. Hertl · Goal · xG 0.03N. Hanifin · On goal · xG 0.03N. Hanifin · On goal · xG 0.03D. Coghlan · On goal · xG 0.03P. Dorofeyev · On goal · xG 0.02B. McNabb · Missed · xG 0.02M. Marner · On goal · xG 0.02J. Eichel · Missed · xG 0.02K. Korczak · Missed · xG 0.01P. Dorofeyev · On goal · xG 0.01D. Coghlan · On goal · xG 0.01D. Coghlan · On goal · xG 0.01S. Theodore · Missed · xG 0.01J. Eichel · Missed · xG 0.00
VGK5 G · 3.6 xG · 36 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

COLvsVGK
3.23 G
All situations
4 G3.6
1.82 G
Even strength
3 G1.6
1.20 G
Power play
1 G1.0
0.31 G
Shorthanded
0 G0.1

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 85 unblocked attempts. Empty-net goals are left out of the goal counts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
COL59%41%VGK

Flurry-adjusted xG 3.23 – 2.72

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

COLvsVGK
35
Shots on goal
23
45%
Faceoffs
55%
0/4
Power play
1/3
18
Penalty minutes
10
17
Hits
34
11
Blocked shots
22
19
Giveaways
18
3
Takeaways
4

Box score

every player line
Colorado Avalanche skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
8C. MakarD000030.28060—27:14
92G. LandeskogL101061.050004324:04
7D. ToewsD022+120.02000—23:14
88M. NecasC011020.30100021:18
91N. KadriC101+130.25102019:19
11B. NelsonC000+100.301125719:02
29N. MacKinnonC011-150.312106018:02
62A. LehkonenL000010.06100—17:15
84B. BurnsD000+120.02002—16:38
42J. MansonD011000.02010—16:20
27B. KulakD000-220.04110—15:04
70S. MalinskiD000-120.03000—12:57
17P. KellyC011-100.00100012:52
25L. O'ConnorR000-220.07200—12:02
10N. RoyC000-110.010103611:17
18J. DruryC101-110.271003611:04
13V. NichushkinR000-120.16200—08:34
20R. ColtonC000-110.044012008:29
Colorado Avalanche goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
41S. Wedgewood(L)22184.8182.76-1.2458:15

Series

VGK leads 4-0

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).