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Maple Leafs at Senators
NHL

Toronto Maple Leafs at Ottawa Senators

NHL scoreboard
Toronto Maple Leafs
1
Ottawa Senators
▸3
FinalTV SN, TVAS·Canadian Tire Centre

Recap

written from the game data

The Ottawa Senators beat the Toronto Maple Leafs 3-1. The Senators scored first and never trailed. The Senators led 2-0 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Warren Foegele's goal at 18:32 of the second period, which took the Senators' chances from 76% to 90%. Expected goals favored the Senators, 4.4 to 1.5; shots on goal were TOR 20, OTT 38. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Senators win a replay of these chances 78% of the time. Dennis Hildeby stopped 35 of 37 (.946), 1.1 goals saved above expected; James Reimer stopped 19 of 20 (.950). Three stars: 1. Drake Batherson (1 G), 2. Claude Giroux (2 A), 3. Dennis Hildeby (35 saves, .946).

Three stars

  1. ★
    OTT
    D. Batherson1 G
  2. ★★
    OTT
    C. Giroux2 A
  3. ★★★
    TOR
    D. Hildeby35 saves, .946

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdT
TORTOR060618120
OTTOTT114112112338

Scoring

4 goals

1st period

  1. OTT
    D. Batherson(33)PPG
    C. Giroux (34), J. Spence (24)
    wristxG 0.18win prob +9 ptsVideo
    0-1
    6:04

2nd period

  1. OTT
    W. Foegele(13)PPG
    L. Thomson (3), F. Zetterlund (16)
    snapxG 0.04win prob +14 ptsVideo
    0-2
    18:32

3rd period

  1. TOR
    W. Nylander(30)
    J. Quillan (2), E. Cowan (18)
    backhandxG 0.11win prob +14 ptsVideo
    1-2
    8:11
  2. OTT
    D. Cozens(28)EN
    S. Pinto (23), C. Giroux (35)
    wristxG 0.95win prob +2 ptsVideo
    1-3
    19:54

Penalties

TOR 6 PIM·OTT 4 PIM

1st

  • 5:44TORLuke Haymes · Trippingdrawn by Dylan Cozens2 min
  • 18:53OTTArtem Zub · Holdingdrawn by Matias Maccelli2 min

2nd

  • 10:51OTTRidly Greig · Hookingdrawn by Ryan Tverberg2 min
  • 16:38TOREaston Cowan · Holdingdrawn by Fabian Zetterlund2 min
  • 19:37TOROliver Ekman-Larsson · Cross checkingdrawn by Nick Cousins2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
OTT goalTOR goalFinal: OTT 100%

Biggest swing: Warren Foegele, 2nd 18:32 — OTT 76% → 90%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
D. Cozens · Goal · xG 0.95W. Foegele · Missed · xG 0.35D. Cozens · Missed · xG 0.25W. Foegele · On goal · xG 0.23D. Batherson · Goal · xG 0.18C. Giroux · On goal · xG 0.17S. Halliday · On goal · xG 0.13C. Giroux · On goal · xG 0.13N. Cousins · On goal · xG 0.13D. Batherson · Missed · xG 0.12N. Cousins · On goal · xG 0.12R. Greig · Missed · xG 0.11S. Pinto · On goal · xG 0.10F. Zetterlund · Missed · xG 0.10C. Giroux · On goal · xG 0.09S. Pinto · On goal · xG 0.08F. Zetterlund · On goal · xG 0.08L. Thomson · Missed · xG 0.07S. Pinto · On goal · xG 0.06C. Giroux · On goal · xG 0.06N. Cousins · Missed · xG 0.06L. Eller · Missed · xG 0.05A. Zub · On goal · xG 0.05D. Batherson · On goal · xG 0.05K. MacDermid · On goal · xG 0.05J. Spence · On goal · xG 0.05D. Cozens · On goal · xG 0.05W. Foegele · Goal · xG 0.05D. Cozens · On goal · xG 0.04D. Batherson · Missed · xG 0.04F. Zetterlund · Missed · xG 0.03D. Cozens · Missed · xG 0.03L. Thomson · On goal · xG 0.03F. Zetterlund · On goal · xG 0.03K. MacDermid · On goal · xG 0.03H. Hodgson · On goal · xG 0.02A. Zub · On goal · xG 0.02F. Zetterlund · Missed · xG 0.02A. Zub · On goal · xG 0.02N. Cousins · On goal · xG 0.02F. Zetterlund · Missed · xG 0.02J. Spence · Missed · xG 0.02L. Thomson · Missed · xG 0.01R. Greig · Missed · xG 0.01S. Halliday · On goal · xG 0.01L. Thomson · On goal · xG 0.01L. Thomson · Missed · xG 0.01A. Zub · On goal · xG 0.01C. Giroux · On goal · xG 0.01C. Crotty · On goal · xG 0.01L. Thomson · On goal · xG 0.01F. Zetterlund · On goal · xG 0.01A. Zub · Missed · xG 0.00C. Giroux · On goal · xG 0.00D. Cozens · On goal · xG 0.00J. Spence · On goal · xG 0.00R. Greig · Missed · xG 0.00
OTT3 G · 4.4 xG · 57 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

TORvsOTT
1.51 G
All situations
2 G4.4
1.41 G
Even strength
0 G2.1
0.10 G
Power play
2 G0.7
0.00 G
Shorthanded
0 G0.3

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 90 unblocked attempts. Empty-net goals are left out of the goal counts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
TOR22%78%OTT

Flurry-adjusted xG 1.48 – 3.07

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

TORvsOTT
20
Shots on goal
38
43%
Faceoffs
57%
0/2
Power play
2/3
6
Penalty minutes
4
28
Hits
27
13
Blocked shots
7
22
Giveaways
18
3
Takeaways
5

Box score

every player line
Toronto Maple Leafs skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
95O. Ekman-LarssonD000010.00012—21:04
88W. NylanderR101030.431003320:28
53E. CowanR011+120.15002—20:17
91J. TavaresC000000.103105620:05
44M. RiellyD000010.06110—20:03
22J. McCabeD000010.03220—19:35
28T. StecherD000+120.04000—19:09
2S. BenoitD000020.07220—18:23
23M. KniesL000-110.14110—16:39
76W. VilleneuveD000000.00010—16:39
18S. LorentzC000-110.118002916:22
43L. HaymesC000010.000024014:44
63M. MaccelliL000-120.07100—14:29
11M. DomiC000020.121104513:05
89N. RobertsonL000-100.00000—13:03
26J. QuillanC011+100.063103312:51
77R. TverbergC000010.10210010:40
61M. PezzettaL000000.00310—10:02
Toronto Maple Leafs goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
35D. Hildeby(L)37352.9463.08+1.0858:08

Season series

OTT leads 3-1

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).