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Senators at Maple Leafs
NHL

Ottawa Senators at Toronto Maple Leafs

NHL scoreboard
Ottawa Senators
5
Toronto Maple Leafs
▸7
FinalTV SN, CBC·Scotiabank Arena

Recap

written from the game data

The Toronto Maple Leafs beat the Ottawa Senators 7-5. The Maple Leafs scored first and never trailed. The Maple Leafs led 5-2 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Bobby McMann's goal at 3:28 of the second period, which took the Maple Leafs' chances from 53% to 69%. Expected goals favored the Maple Leafs, 4.8 to 3.0; shots on goal were OTT 31, TOR 33. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Maple Leafs win a replay of these chances 56% of the time. Leevi Meriläinen stopped 16 of 18 (.889), 0.7 goals below expected; Joseph Woll stopped 26 of 31 (.839), 2.0 goals below expected. Three stars: 1. Auston Matthews (1 G, 2 A), 2. Matthew Knies (2 G, 1 A), 3. Max Domi (3 A).

Three stars

  1. ★
    TOR
    A. Matthews1 G, 2 A
  2. ★★
    TOR
    M. Knies2 G, 1 A
  3. ★★★
    TOR
    M. Domi3 A

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdT
OTTOTT1919313531
TORTOR2432029733

Scoring

12 goals

1st period

  1. TOR
    W. Nylander(14)PPG
    A. Matthews (10), M. Maccelli (7)
    backhandxG 0.33win prob +8 ptsVideo
    0-1
    0:40
  2. TOR
    M. Knies(8)PPG
    M. Domi (11), N. Robertson (9)
    snapxG 0.18win prob +13 ptsVideo
    0-2
    14:42
  3. OTT
    N. Cousins(6)
    J. Spence (11), S. Halliday (4)
    wristxG 0.29win prob +14 ptsVideo
    1-2
    17:50

2nd period

  1. OTT
    R. Greig(4)
    C. Giroux (19)
    wristxG 0.18win prob +15 ptsVideo
    2-2
    0:18
  2. TOR
    B. McMann(11)
    A. Matthews (11), M. Domi (12)
    wristxG 0.46win prob +16 ptsVideo
    2-3
    3:28
  3. TOR
    A. Matthews(15)
    M. Domi (13), J. McCabe (13)
    wristxG 0.21win prob +15 ptsVideo
    2-4
    7:28
  4. TOR
    N. Robertson(7)
    M. Knies (24), N. Roy (9)
    wristxG 0.26win prob +9 ptsVideo
    2-5
    8:32

3rd period

  1. OTT
    D. Batherson(15)
    D. Cozens (18), B. Tkachuk (11)
    wristxG 0.09win prob +6 ptsVideo
    3-5
    0:14
  2. OTT
    T. Stützle(19)
    F. Zetterlund (8)
    wristxG 0.09win prob +15 ptsVideo
    4-5
    5:07
  3. TOR
    M. Knies(9)
    M. Maccelli (8), M. Rielly (20)
    backhandxG 0.17win prob +15 ptsVideo
    4-6
    5:53
  4. OTT
    J. Spence(2)
    C. Giroux (20), S. Halliday (5)
    wristxG 0.26win prob +13 ptsVideo
    5-6
    9:18
  5. TOR
    J. Tavares(15)EN
    Unassisted
    wristxG 0.43win prob +5 ptsVideo
    5-7
    18:44

Penalties

OTT 8 PIM·TOR 4 PIM

1st

  • 0:12OTTFabian Zetterlund · Interferencedrawn by Auston Matthews2 min
  • 7:50TORPhilippe Myers · Interferencedrawn by David Perron2 min
  • 13:07OTTBrady Tkachuk · Trippingdrawn by William Nylander2 min

3rd

  • 1:47OTTDrake Batherson · Roughingdrawn by Oliver Ekman-Larsson2 min
  • 1:47TOROliver Ekman-Larsson · Roughingdrawn by Drake Batherson2 min
  • 12:46OTTJake Sanderson · Trippingdrawn by Scott Laughton2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
TOR goalOTT goalFinal: TOR 100%

Biggest swing: Bobby McMann, 2nd 3:28 — TOR 53% → 69%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
A. Matthews · Missed · xG 0.53D. Joshua · Missed · xG 0.48B. McMann · Goal · xG 0.46J. Tavares · Goal · xG 0.43W. Nylander · Goal · xG 0.33N. Robertson · Goal · xG 0.26A. Matthews · Goal · xG 0.21A. Matthews · On goal · xG 0.19A. Matthews · On goal · xG 0.18M. Knies · Goal · xG 0.18M. Knies · Goal · xG 0.17A. Matthews · Missed · xG 0.14M. Knies · On goal · xG 0.13N. Robertson · On goal · xG 0.12A. Matthews · On goal · xG 0.12A. Matthews · On goal · xG 0.11A. Matthews · On goal · xG 0.09A. Matthews · On goal · xG 0.08A. Matthews · On goal · xG 0.06B. McMann · On goal · xG 0.06N. Robertson · On goal · xG 0.05A. Matthews · On goal · xG 0.05N. Robertson · On goal · xG 0.05M. Knies · On goal · xG 0.04B. McMann · Missed · xG 0.04T. Stecher · On goal · xG 0.03A. Matthews · Missed · xG 0.03M. Knies · On goal · xG 0.03J. Tavares · On goal · xG 0.03M. Rielly · On goal · xG 0.02N. Robertson · On goal · xG 0.02M. Domi · On goal · xG 0.02A. Matthews · Missed · xG 0.02B. McMann · On goal · xG 0.01M. Rielly · Missed · xG 0.01M. Rielly · On goal · xG 0.01P. Myers · On goal · xG 0.01M. Knies · On goal · xG 0.01T. Stecher · Missed · xG 0.00J. McCabe · Missed · xG 0.00O. Ekman-Larsson · On goal · xG 0.00S. Laughton · On goal · xG 0.00
TOR7 G · 4.8 xG · 42 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

OTTvsTOR
3.05 G
All situations
6 G4.8
2.55 G
Even strength
4 G2.6
0.40 G
Power play
2 G0.7
0.00 G
Shorthanded
0 G0.0

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 96 unblocked attempts. Empty-net goals are left out of the goal counts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
OTT44%56%TOR

Flurry-adjusted xG 2.95 – 3.27

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

OTTvsTOR
31
Shots on goal
33
56%
Faceoffs
44%
0/1
Power play
2/3
8
Penalty minutes
4
30
Hits
32
6
Blocked shots
7
18
Giveaways
17
4
Takeaways
6

Box score

every player line
Ottawa Senators skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
72T. ChabotD000+230.04010—23:42
85J. SandersonD000020.06112—23:20
18T. StützleC101-130.324007122:12
10J. SpenceD112+130.34010—20:55
2A. ZubD000+100.05010—20:01
19D. BathersonR101-140.3230210018:37
24D. CozensC011000.306004718:20
28C. GirouxR022-130.171005318:09
22M. AmadioR000-110.00000—17:03
7B. TkachukL011030.31502—17:00
20F. ZetterlundL011000.14102—15:26
71R. GreigC101020.200104414:34
33N. MatinpaloD000-110.01000—14:31
3N. JensenD000-200.00100—14:30
57D. PerronL000+110.10110—13:17
83S. HallidayC022+100.0030010008:43
21N. CousinsC101020.40400008:31
53X. BourgaultR000030.22000—06:43
Ottawa Senators goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
1L. Meriläinen(L)18162.8891.33-0.6730:55
35L. Ullmark14104.7142.05-1.9527:28

Season series

OTT leads 3-1

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).