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Senators at Maple Leafs
NHL

Ottawa Senators at Toronto Maple Leafs

NHL scoreboard
Ottawa Senators
▸5
Toronto Maple Leafs
2
FinalTV SN, CBC·Scotiabank Arena

Recap

written from the game data

The Ottawa Senators beat the Toronto Maple Leafs 5-2. The Maple Leafs scored first; the Senators answered. The Senators led 5-2 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Drake Batherson's goal at 15:15 of the second period, which took the Senators' chances from 68% to 86%. Expected goals favored the Senators, 3.7 to 2.4; shots on goal were OTT 40, TOR 23. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Senators win a replay of these chances 75% of the time. Linus Ullmark stopped 21 of 23 (.913); Joseph Woll stopped 23 of 28 (.821), 2.4 goals below expected. Three stars: 1. Dylan Cozens (2 G, 1 A), 2. Drake Batherson (2 G), 3. Thomas Chabot (1 G, 1 A).

Three stars

  1. ★
    OTT
    D. Cozens2 G, 1 A
  2. ★★
    OTT
    D. Batherson2 G
  3. ★★★
    OTT
    T. Chabot1 G, 1 A

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdT
OTTOTT11641509540
TORTOR1218013223

Scoring

7 goals

1st period

  1. TOR
    M. Rielly(8)
    A. Matthews (25), J. McCabe (16)
    wristxG 0.09win prob +10 ptsVideo
    0-1
    2:52
  2. OTT
    T. Chabot(6)
    B. Tkachuk (24), D. Cozens (26)
    wristxG 0.08win prob +13 ptsVideo
    1-1
    10:59

2nd period

  1. OTT
    D. Cozens(19)
    T. Chabot (18), F. Zetterlund (11)
    wristxG 0.28win prob +16 ptsVideo
    2-1
    3:03
  2. OTT
    D. Batherson(20)
    Unassisted
    wristxG 0.09win prob +17 ptsVideo
    3-1
    13:05
  3. TOR
    W. Nylander(19)
    S. Laughton (4), M. Maccelli (15)
    pokexG 0.70win prob +17 ptsVideo
    3-2
    13:56
  4. OTT
    D. Batherson(21)
    Unassisted
    wristxG 0.09win prob +18 ptsVideo
    4-2
    15:15
  5. OTT
    D. Cozens(20)PPG
    T. Stützle (35), J. Sanderson (37)
    wristxG 0.08win prob +7 ptsVideo
    5-2
    16:06

Penalties

OTT 15 PIM·TOR 27 PIM

1st

  • 0:50OTTDylan Cozens · Roughingdrawn by John Tavares2 min
  • 13:03TORSimon Benoit · Trippingdrawn by Ridly Greig2 min

2nd

  • 15:15TORserved by N. Robertson · Delaying game unsuccessful challenge2 min

3rd

  • 3:34TORAnthony Stolarz · Roughingdrawn by Ridly Greig2 min
  • 3:34OTTRidly Greig · Slashingdrawn by Anthony Stolarz2 min
  • 3:34OTTNick Cousins · Roughingdrawn by Scott Laughton2 min
  • 3:34TORMax Domi · Roughingdrawn by Nick Jensen2 min
  • 3:34TORScott Laughton · Fightingdrawn by Nick Cousins5 min
  • 3:34OTTNick Cousins · Fightingdrawn by Scott Laughton5 min
  • 3:34TORMax Domi · Misconduct10 min
  • 8:09TORJohn Tavares · Roughingdrawn by Shane Pinto2 min
  • 8:09OTTShane Pinto · Roughingdrawn by John Tavares2 min
  • 10:27OTTBrady Tkachuk · Roughingdrawn by Simon Benoit2 min
  • 16:44TORMorgan Rielly · Slashingdrawn by Shane Pinto2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
TOR goalOTT goalFinal: TOR 0%

Biggest swing: Drake Batherson, 2nd 15:15 — OTT 68% → 86%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
W. Nylander · Goal · xG 0.70B. McMann · Missed · xG 0.18W. Nylander · Missed · xG 0.17W. Nylander · On goal · xG 0.17E. Cowan · On goal · xG 0.17N. Robertson · On goal · xG 0.15M. Rielly · Goal · xG 0.09B. McMann · On goal · xG 0.06W. Nylander · Missed · xG 0.06B. McMann · On goal · xG 0.05A. Matthews · On goal · xG 0.05B. McMann · On goal · xG 0.05M. Rielly · On goal · xG 0.05J. Tavares · Missed · xG 0.04W. Nylander · Missed · xG 0.04A. Matthews · Missed · xG 0.04W. Nylander · Missed · xG 0.04B. McMann · Missed · xG 0.03A. Matthews · On goal · xG 0.03N. Roy · Missed · xG 0.03W. Nylander · On goal · xG 0.03B. Carlo · On goal · xG 0.03O. Ekman-Larsson · On goal · xG 0.02T. Stecher · Missed · xG 0.02B. Carlo · On goal · xG 0.01M. Domi · Missed · xG 0.01N. Robertson · On goal · xG 0.01M. Maccelli · On goal · xG 0.01S. Laughton · On goal · xG 0.01J. McCabe · Missed · xG 0.01B. Carlo · On goal · xG 0.01S. Benoit · Missed · xG 0.01D. Joshua · On goal · xG 0.01S. Benoit · Missed · xG 0.00M. Rielly · On goal · xG 0.00J. McCabe · On goal · xG 0.00J. McCabe · On goal · xG 0.00
TOR2 G · 2.4 xG · 37 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

OTTvsTOR
3.75 G
All situations
2 G2.4
3.14 G
Even strength
2 G2.1
0.61 G
Power play
0 G0.3

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 96 unblocked attempts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
OTT75%25%TOR

Flurry-adjusted xG 3.65 – 2.13

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

OTTvsTOR
40
Shots on goal
23
49%
Faceoffs
51%
1/3
Power play
0/2
15
Penalty minutes
27
27
Hits
24
6
Blocked shots
15
14
Giveaways
14
6
Takeaways
5

Box score

every player line
Ottawa Senators skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
85J. SandersonD011+110.08000—23:12
72T. ChabotD112+230.12020—21:54
2A. ZubD000+110.04110—20:23
10J. SpenceD000-110.06010—18:40
18T. StützleC011030.154002018:31
19D. BathersonR202+150.50100—17:46
12S. PintoC000040.581023317:34
22M. AmadioR000020.55110—17:00
43T. KlevenD000-200.00100—16:46
24D. CozensC213+140.426026416:23
3N. JensenD000+310.15100—16:20
7B. TkachukL011+260.386027515:37
28C. GirouxR000010.241004615:15
71R. GreigC000030.201026713:43
83S. HallidayC000020.1101010012:06
21N. CousinsC000010.02107011:50
89L. EllerC000010.030003310:46
20F. ZetterlundL011+210.07200—10:14
Ottawa Senators goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
35L. Ullmark(W)23212.9132.39+0.3960:00

Season series

OTT leads 3-1

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).