Lightning at Bruins 2-1 — Recap, Win Probability & Shot Map

NHL scoreboard

Tampa Bay Lightning

▸2

Boston Bruins

FinalTV ABC, SNW·TD Garden

Recap

written from the game data

The Tampa Bay Lightning beat the Boston Bruins 2-1. The Bruins scored first; the Lightning answered. The Bruins led 1-0 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Emil Lilleberg's goal at 18:25 of the third period, which took the Lightning's chances from 48% to 96%. Expected goals favored the Lightning, 2.6 to 2.3; shots on goal were TBL 24, BOS 21. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Lightning win a replay of these chances 57% of the time. Andrei Vasilevskiy stopped 20 of 21 (.952), 1.3 goals saved above expected; Jeremy Swayman stopped 22 of 24 (.917), 0.6 goals saved above expected. Three stars: 1. Emil Lilleberg (1 G), 2. Andrei Vasilevskiy (20 saves, .952), 3. Jeremy Swayman (22 saves, .917).

Three stars

★
E. Lilleberg1 G
★★
A. Vasilevskiy20 saves, .952
★★★
J. Swayman22 saves, .917

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath

Goals and shots on goal by period
Team	1st	2nd	3rd	T
TBL	05	08	211	224
BOS	04	18	09	121

Scoring

3 goals

2nd period

M. Geekie(38)
C. McAvoy (50)
wristxG 0.09win prob +19 ptsVideo
0-1
10:47

3rd period

B. Hagel(36)
G. Goncalves (22), R. McDonagh (14)
wristxG 0.13win prob +27 ptsVideo
1-1
6:37
E. Lilleberg(4)
J. Guentzel (50), B. Point (31)
wristxG 0.38win prob +47 ptsVideo
2-1
18:25

Penalties

4 PIM·

4 PIM

2nd

19:01Charle-Edouard D'Astous · Roughingdrawn by Jonathan Aspirot2 min
19:01Jonathan Aspirot · Trippingdrawn by Nikita Kucherov2 min

3rd

3:46Elias Lindholm · Holdingdrawn by Jake Guentzel2 min
19:23Brandon Hagel · Interferencedrawn by Casey Mittelstadt2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game

Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number

goal

goalFinal: BOS

Biggest swing: Emil Lilleberg, 3rd 18:25 — TBL 48% → 96%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG

1 G · 2.3 xG · 44 att

←

attacks

attacks →

2 G · 2.6 xG · 29 att BOS

1 G · 2.3 xG · 44 att

Tap a shot for who, when and how likely

GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

2.62 G
All situations: 1 G2.3; 2.62 G
Even strength: 1 G2.1; 0.00 G
Power play: 0 G0.1; 0.00 G
Shorthanded: 0 G0.0

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 73 unblocked attempts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created

57%43%

Flurry-adjusted xG 2.54 – 2.20

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

24
Shots on goal: 21; 38%
Faceoffs: 62%; 0/1
Power play: 0/1; 4
Penalty minutes: 4; 27
Hits: 23; 14
Blocked shots: 13; 20
Giveaways: 18; 8
Takeaways: 5

Box score

every player line

Tampa Bay Lightning skaters
Skater	G	A	P	+/-	SOG	ixG	Hit	Blk	PIM	FO%	TOI
90J. MoserD	0	0	0	-1	0	0.00	2	1	0	—	22:29
78E. LillebergD	1	0	1	+1	2	0.42	2	1	0	—	21:03
51C. D'AstousD	0	0	0	+1	2	0.10	1	2	2	—	21:02
67D. CarlileD	0	0	0	+1	2	0.14	5	2	0	—	21:00
86N. KucherovR	0	0	0	0	2	0.19	0	1	0	—	20:21
21B. PointC	0	1	1	0	1	0.04	0	0	0	36	19:21
27R. McDonaghD	0	1	1	+1	2	0.04	1	0	0	—	19:20
71A. CirelliC	0	0	0	+1	2	0.27	0	1	0	44	19:15
38B. HagelL	1	0	1	+1	4	0.69	0	0	2	—	18:46
59J. GuentzelC	0	1	1	0	1	0.11	0	1	0	50	18:10
93G. GoncalvesC	0	1	1	+1	1	0.16	3	1	0	0	14:04
20N. PaulL	0	0	0	0	1	0.17	2	1	0	20	13:58
37Y. GourdeC	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	5	0	0	0	13:42
81E. CernakD	0	0	0	-1	0	0.01	3	2	0	—	13:37
22O. BjorkstrandR	0	0	0	0	0	0.06	1	1	0	—	12:48
14C. GeekieC	0	0	0	0	1	0.14	1	0	0	50	09:47
46S. SabourinR	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	1	0	0	—	09:33
10C. PerryR	0	0	0	0	3	0.05	0	0	0	—	09:10

Tampa Bay Lightning goalies
Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	xGA	GSAx	TOI
88A. Vasilevskiy(W)	21	20	1	.952	2.26	+1.26	59:57

Season series

TBL leads 4-0

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).

Tampa Bay Lightning at Boston Bruins

2nd period

3rd period

2nd

3rd

Box score