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Wild at Stars
NHL

Minnesota Wild at Dallas Stars

NHL scoreboard
Minnesota Wild
4
Dallas Stars
▸5
FinalTV ESPN+, HULU·American Airlines Center

Recap

written from the game data

The Dallas Stars beat the Minnesota Wild 5-4. The Stars came back from two goals down. The Wild led 4-3 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Jason Robertson's goal at 10:35 of the third period, which took the Stars' chances from 52% to 84%. Expected goals favored the Wild, 2.9 to 2.1; shots on goal were MIN 31, DAL 20. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Wild win a replay of these chances 66% of the time. Filip Gustavsson stopped 15 of 20 (.750), 2.9 goals below expected; Jake Oettinger stopped 27 of 31 (.871), 1.1 goals below expected. Three stars: 1. Colin Blackwell (1 G, 1 A), 2. Kirill Kaprizov (2 G), 3. Jason Robertson (1 G).

Three stars

  1. ★
    DAL
    C. Blackwell1 G, 1 A
  2. ★★
    MIN
    K. Kaprizov2 G
  3. ★★★
    DAL
    J. Robertson1 G

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdT
MINMIN2821409431
DALDAL1421026520

Scoring

9 goals

1st period

  1. DAL
    W. Johnston(44)
    J. Hryckowian (15), M. Rantanen (54)
    snapxG 0.27win prob +12 ptsVideo
    0-1
    4:26
  2. MIN
    Q. Hughes(7)
    M. Zuccarello (37)
    snapxG 0.11win prob +14 ptsVideo
    1-1
    13:02
  3. MIN
    K. Kaprizov(44)PPG
    M. Boldy (42), M. Zuccarello (38)
    tip-inxG 0.14win prob +11 ptsVideo
    2-1
    19:44

2nd period

  1. MIN
    K. Kaprizov(45)PPG
    M. Boldy (43), M. Zuccarello (39)
    snapxG 0.33win prob +13 ptsVideo
    3-1
    6:39
  2. DAL
    C. Blackwell(4)
    E. Lindell (24)
    snapxG 0.13win prob +17 ptsVideo
    3-2
    8:03
  3. DAL
    C. Hughes(1)
    C. Blackwell (11), O. Bäck (7)
    snapxG 0.48win prob +22 ptsVideo
    3-3
    16:16
  4. MIN
    R. Hartman(23)PPG
    J. Spurgeon (16), Q. Hughes (69)
    tip-inxG 0.13win prob +21 ptsVideo
    4-3
    19:49

3rd period

  1. DAL
    M. Rantanen(22)
    T. Harley (29), W. Johnston (40)
    deflectedxG 0.08win prob +27 ptsVideo
    4-4
    4:28
  2. DAL
    J. Robertson(42)
    E. Lindell (25)
    wristxG 0.10win prob +32 ptsVideo
    4-5
    10:35

Penalties

MIN 12 PIM·DAL 20 PIM

1st

  • 19:30DALWyatt Johnston · Trippingdrawn by Matt Boldy2 min

2nd

  • 3:14MINNick Foligno · Roughingdrawn by Lian Bichsel2 min
  • 3:14DALLian Bichsel · Roughingdrawn by Nick Foligno2 min
  • 6:23DALEsa Lindell · Roughingdrawn by Ryan Hartman2 min
  • 8:03MINNick Foligno · Roughingdrawn by Tyler Myers2 min
  • 8:03MINNick Foligno · Roughingdrawn by Tyler Myers2 min
  • 8:03DALTyler Myers · Roughingdrawn by Nick Foligno2 min
  • 8:57DALWyatt Johnston · Interferencedrawn by Jared Spurgeon2 min
  • 18:05DALTyler Myers · Holdingdrawn by Ryan Hartman2 min

3rd

  • 12:08MINRyan Hartman · Roughingdrawn by Adam Erne2 min
  • 12:08DALAdam Erne · Roughingdrawn by Ryan Hartman2 min
  • 17:30DALMikko Rantanen · Slashingdrawn by Jonas Brodin2 min
  • 19:45MINQuinn Hughes · Roughingdrawn by Thomas Harley2 min
  • 19:45DALMikko Rantanen · Roughingdrawn by Matt Boldy2 min
  • 19:45DALThomas Harley · Roughingdrawn by Quinn Hughes2 min
  • 19:45MINMatt Boldy · Roughingdrawn by Mikko Rantanen2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
DAL goalMIN goalFinal: DAL 100%

Biggest swing: Jason Robertson, 3rd 10:35 — DAL 52% → 84%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
C. Hughes · Goal · xG 0.48W. Johnston · Goal · xG 0.27A. Erne · On goal · xG 0.15J. Robertson · Missed · xG 0.15C. Blackwell · Goal · xG 0.13J. Robertson · Goal · xG 0.10W. Johnston · On goal · xG 0.10M. Rantanen · Goal · xG 0.08W. Johnston · On goal · xG 0.06C. Blackwell · Missed · xG 0.05M. Rantanen · Missed · xG 0.05C. Blackwell · On goal · xG 0.05T. Harley · Missed · xG 0.05E. Lindell · On goal · xG 0.04M. Duchene · On goal · xG 0.04C. Blackwell · Missed · xG 0.04J. Benn · Missed · xG 0.04L. Bichsel · On goal · xG 0.03T. Myers · Missed · xG 0.03E. Lindell · On goal · xG 0.02L. Bichsel · Missed · xG 0.02O. Bäck · Missed · xG 0.02J. Robertson · On goal · xG 0.02E. Lindell · On goal · xG 0.01T. Harley · On goal · xG 0.01C. Blackwell · Missed · xG 0.01M. Bourque · On goal · xG 0.01A. Hyry · On goal · xG 0.00M. Bourque · On goal · xG 0.00O. Bäck · On goal · xG 0.00
DAL5 G · 2.1 xG · 30 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

MINvsDAL
2.94 G
All situations
5 G2.1
2.01 G
Even strength
5 G2.1
0.93 G
Power play
0 G0.0

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 74 unblocked attempts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
MIN66%34%DAL

Flurry-adjusted xG 2.89 – 2.03

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

MINvsDAL
31
Shots on goal
20
51%
Faceoffs
49%
3/5
Power play
0/1
12
Penalty minutes
20
25
Hits
18
11
Blocked shots
13
9
Giveaways
12
5
Takeaways
4

Box score

every player line
Minnesota Wild skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
43Q. HughesD112-220.25012—31:51
7B. FaberD000-210.07100—24:38
97K. KaprizovL202040.64300—23:00
12M. BoldyL022-140.29202—20:47
36M. ZuccarelloR033010.04000—18:12
14J. Eriksson EkC000-160.401106518:10
46J. SpurgeonD011000.00110—17:22
25J. BrodinD000000.00020—16:35
91V. TarasenkoR000030.09020—14:55
38R. HartmanR101020.201126014:37
22D. YurovR000-100.000004014:14
90M. JohanssonL000-110.04300—13:50
13Y. TreninC000030.41510012:53
2J. PetryD000-200.00000—12:04
5J. MiddletonD000-210.01110—11:55
17M. FolignoL000-320.48500—10:39
71N. FolignoL000-300.00106—10:08
47M. McCarronC000-210.031108309:55
Minnesota Wild goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
32F. Gustavsson(L)20155.7502.06-2.9458:15

Season series

Tied 2-2

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).