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Maple Leafs at Islanders
NHL

Toronto Maple Leafs at New York Islanders

NHL scoreboard
Toronto Maple Leafs
3
New York Islanders
▸5
FinalTV ESPN+, HULU·UBS Arena

Recap

written from the game data

The New York Islanders beat the Toronto Maple Leafs 5-3. The Islanders scored first and never trailed. The Islanders led 4-2 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Matthew Schaefer's goal at 9:39 of the second period, which took the Islanders' chances from 53% to 71%. Expected goals favored the Islanders, 6.4 to 2.2; shots on goal were TOR 16, NYI 44. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Islanders win a replay of these chances 93% of the time. Artur Akhtyamov stopped 39 of 44 (.886), 1.2 goals saved above expected; Ilya Sorokin stopped 13 of 16 (.813), 0.8 goals below expected. Three stars: 1. Calum Ritchie (1 G, 1 A), 2. Tony DeAngelo (2 A), 3. Matthew Schaefer (1 G).

Three stars

  1. ★
    NYI
    C. Ritchie1 G, 1 A
  2. ★★
    NYI
    T. DeAngelo2 A
  3. ★★★
    NYI
    M. Schaefer1 G

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdT
TORTOR131617316
NYINYI22421218544

Scoring

8 goals

1st period

  1. NYI
    B. Schenn(18)
    C. Ritchie (17), B. Horvat (26)
    snapxG 0.53win prob +11 ptsVideo
    0-1
    2:08
  2. NYI
    J. Pageau(17)
    M. Shabanov (13), A. Pelech (12)
    snapxG 0.81win prob +14 ptsVideo
    0-2
    4:55
  3. TOR
    S. Lorentz(7)
    Unassisted
    wristxG 0.01win prob +14 ptsVideo
    1-2
    5:11

2nd period

  1. TOR
    E. Cowan(11)PPG
    J. Tavares (39), O. Ekman-Larsson (31)
    wristxG 0.06win prob +12 ptsVideo
    2-2
    1:57
  2. NYI
    M. Schaefer(23)
    T. DeAngelo (29), O. Palat (10)
    wristxG 0.08win prob +18 ptsVideo
    2-3
    9:39
  3. NYI
    E. Heineman(22)PPG
    M. Barzal (52), T. DeAngelo (30)
    snapxG 0.12win prob +13 ptsVideo
    2-4
    16:44

3rd period

  1. NYI
    C. Ritchie(13)PPG
    Unassisted
    snapxG 0.76win prob +2 ptsVideo
    2-5
    10:20
  2. TOR
    M. Rielly(11)
    M. Maccelli (25), L. Haymes (1)
    wristxG 0.03win prob +1 ptsVideo
    3-5
    14:04

Penalties

TOR 20 PIM·NYI 2 PIM

1st

  • 18:50TORMichael Pezzetta · Delaying game puck over glass2 min

2nd

  • 0:36NYICalum Ritchie · High stickingdrawn by Troy Stecher2 min
  • 15:17TORPhilippe Myers · Holdingdrawn by Mathew Barzal2 min
  • 17:01TORNick Robertson · Hookingdrawn by Adam Pelech2 min

3rd

  • 9:03TORMorgan Rielly · Hookingdrawn by Marc Gatcomb2 min
  • 9:39TORSteven Lorentz · Slashingdrawn by Matthew Schaefer2 min
  • 9:39TOROliver Ekman-Larsson · Misconduct10 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
NYI goalTOR goalFinal: NYI 100%

Biggest swing: Matthew Schaefer, 2nd 9:39 — NYI 53% → 71%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
J. Pageau · Goal · xG 0.81C. Ritchie · Goal · xG 0.76B. Schenn · Goal · xG 0.53M. Barzal · Missed · xG 0.25M. Barzal · On goal · xG 0.24B. Schenn · On goal · xG 0.21B. Horvat · On goal · xG 0.17M. Gatcomb · On goal · xG 0.17B. Horvat · Missed · xG 0.16M. Barzal · On goal · xG 0.15J. Pageau · Missed · xG 0.15C. Ritchie · On goal · xG 0.15B. Schenn · On goal · xG 0.14B. Horvat · Missed · xG 0.14S. Holmstrom · On goal · xG 0.13T. DeAngelo · Missed · xG 0.13E. Heineman · Goal · xG 0.12M. Shabanov · Missed · xG 0.12S. Holmstrom · On goal · xG 0.11M. Shabanov · On goal · xG 0.11J. Pageau · On goal · xG 0.10M. Gatcomb · On goal · xG 0.10B. Horvat · On goal · xG 0.09M. Schaefer · On goal · xG 0.09M. Schaefer · Goal · xG 0.08M. Gatcomb · On goal · xG 0.08T. DeAngelo · On goal · xG 0.08S. Holmstrom · Missed · xG 0.07S. Holmstrom · Missed · xG 0.07C. Cizikas · On goal · xG 0.07B. Schenn · Missed · xG 0.05C. Cizikas · On goal · xG 0.05M. Gatcomb · Missed · xG 0.05E. Heineman · On goal · xG 0.04A. Pelech · On goal · xG 0.04A. Pelech · On goal · xG 0.04C. Cizikas · On goal · xG 0.04E. Heineman · Missed · xG 0.04M. Schaefer · On goal · xG 0.04E. Heineman · Missed · xG 0.04C. Ritchie · On goal · xG 0.03S. Holmstrom · On goal · xG 0.03M. Gatcomb · On goal · xG 0.03A. Lee · On goal · xG 0.03A. Lee · Missed · xG 0.02M. Barzal · On goal · xG 0.02M. Barzal · Missed · xG 0.02M. Gatcomb · On goal · xG 0.02A. Lee · On goal · xG 0.02C. Ritchie · On goal · xG 0.02T. DeAngelo · On goal · xG 0.02M. Barzal · On goal · xG 0.02A. Pelech · Missed · xG 0.01E. Heineman · On goal · xG 0.01A. Pelech · On goal · xG 0.01S. Mayfield · Missed · xG 0.01T. DeAngelo · On goal · xG 0.01C. Cizikas · Missed · xG 0.01S. Mayfield · On goal · xG 0.01T. DeAngelo · On goal · xG 0.01A. Pelech · On goal · xG 0.01A. Pelech · Missed · xG 0.01A. Pelech · Missed · xG 0.01T. DeAngelo · Missed · xG 0.00
NYI5 G · 6.4 xG · 64 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

TORvsNYI
2.23 G
All situations
5 G6.4
1.72 G
Even strength
3 G3.5
0.51 G
Power play
2 G2.7

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 110 unblocked attempts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
TOR7%93%NYI

Flurry-adjusted xG 2.19 – 5.82

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

TORvsNYI
16
Shots on goal
44
46%
Faceoffs
54%
1/1
Power play
2/5
20
Penalty minutes
2
21
Hits
24
13
Blocked shots
11
12
Giveaways
16
3
Takeaways
3

Box score

every player line
Toronto Maple Leafs skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
22J. McCabeD000-100.09120—25:06
88W. NylanderR000020.280105021:53
28T. StecherD000+100.01100—20:57
44M. RiellyD101+120.19132—20:45
91J. TavaresC011010.461005819:39
23M. KniesL000-200.28000—18:56
53E. CowanR101010.14110—18:54
2S. BenoitD000-220.08300—17:47
19C. JarnkrokC000010.050103316:43
95O. Ekman-LarssonD011010.101110—15:52
51P. MyersD000-100.01322—15:37
18S. LorentzC101+120.130122215:15
26J. QuillanC000000.011104013:24
43L. HaymesC011+110.112004012:47
11M. DomiC000-230.190005712:18
89N. RobertsonL000000.05002—11:19
63M. MaccelliL011-100.06000—11:17
61M. PezzettaL000000.00602—06:24
Toronto Maple Leafs goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
70A. Akhtyamov(L)44395.8866.17+1.1756:23

Season series

NYI leads 3-0

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).