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Maple Leafs at Islanders
NHL

Toronto Maple Leafs at New York Islanders

NHL scoreboard
Toronto Maple Leafs
3
New York Islanders
▸4
Final/OTTV NHLN, MSGSN·UBS Arena

Recap

written from the game data

The New York Islanders beat the Toronto Maple Leafs 4-3 in overtime, Matthew Schaefer scoring at 4:11. The lead changed hands 3 times. The Maple Leafs led 2-1 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Matthew Schaefer's goal at 4:11 of overtime, which took the Islanders' chances from 51% to 100%. Expected goals favored the Maple Leafs, 2.7 to 2.4; shots on goal were TOR 21, NYI 25. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Maple Leafs win a replay of these chances 56% of the time. Joseph Woll stopped 21 of 25 (.840), 1.6 goals below expected; David Rittich stopped 18 of 21 (.857). Three stars: 1. Matthew Schaefer (2 G), 2. Auston Matthews (2 G), 3. Jonathan Drouin (2 A).

Three stars

  1. ★
    NYI
    M. Schaefer2 G
  2. ★★
    TOR
    A. Matthews2 G
  3. ★★★
    NYI
    J. Drouin2 A

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdOTT
TORTOR072111300321
NYINYI071621012425

Scoring

7 goals

2nd period

  1. NYI
    A. Pelech(3)
    J. Drouin (15)
    wristxG 0.01win prob +16 ptsVideo
    0-1
    1:10
  2. TOR
    A. Matthews(19)
    Unassisted
    wristxG 0.22win prob +18 ptsVideo
    1-1
    9:30
  3. TOR
    A. Matthews(20)
    B. McMann (10), M. Domi (15)
    snapxG 0.17win prob +22 ptsVideo
    2-1
    17:19

3rd period

  1. NYI
    M. Schaefer(11)
    J. Drouin (16), J. Pageau (10)
    wristxG 0.30win prob +34 ptsVideo
    2-2
    11:10
  2. TOR
    N. Robertson(9)
    N. Roy (11)
    snapxG 0.23win prob +36 ptsVideo
    3-2
    12:12
  3. NYI
    E. Heineman(13)
    M. Barzal (21), T. DeAngelo (13)
    snapxG 0.08win prob +44 ptsVideo
    3-3
    17:15

Overtime

  1. NYI
    M. Schaefer(12)
    M. Barzal (22), E. Heineman (7)
    snapxG 0.25win prob +49 ptsVideo
    3-4
    4:11

Penalties

TOR 4 PIM·NYI 4 PIM

1st

  • 7:18NYIMathew Barzal · High stickingdrawn by Max Domi2 min
  • 10:50TORMax Domi · Cross checkingdrawn by Ryan Pulock2 min
  • 10:50NYIRyan Pulock · Slashingdrawn by Max Domi2 min
  • 11:52TORJohn Tavares · Slashingdrawn by Scott Mayfield2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
NYI goalTOR goalFinal: NYI 100%

Biggest swing: Matthew Schaefer, OT 4:11 — NYI 51% → 100%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
M. Schaefer · Goal · xG 0.30M. Schaefer · Goal · xG 0.25A. Lee · On goal · xG 0.13S. Holmstrom · On goal · xG 0.12M. Barzal · On goal · xG 0.11S. Mayfield · Missed · xG 0.09J. Pageau · On goal · xG 0.09E. Heineman · Goal · xG 0.08M. Barzal · Missed · xG 0.08C. Ritchie · On goal · xG 0.08T. DeAngelo · On goal · xG 0.08A. Pelech · On goal · xG 0.07M. Barzal · Missed · xG 0.07S. Holmstrom · On goal · xG 0.06T. DeAngelo · Missed · xG 0.06E. Heineman · Missed · xG 0.06S. Holmstrom · Missed · xG 0.06M. Shabanov · On goal · xG 0.05S. Holmstrom · Missed · xG 0.05M. Barzal · On goal · xG 0.04A. Pelech · Missed · xG 0.04T. DeAngelo · On goal · xG 0.04E. Heineman · On goal · xG 0.03S. Holmstrom · On goal · xG 0.03T. DeAngelo · Missed · xG 0.03S. Mayfield · On goal · xG 0.03R. Pulock · On goal · xG 0.03J. Pageau · On goal · xG 0.03E. Heineman · Missed · xG 0.03C. Ritchie · On goal · xG 0.02J. Drouin · On goal · xG 0.02J. Drouin · Missed · xG 0.02A. Lee · Missed · xG 0.01M. Gatcomb · On goal · xG 0.01A. Pelech · Missed · xG 0.01R. Pulock · Missed · xG 0.01A. Pelech · Goal · xG 0.01K. MacLean · On goal · xG 0.01S. Holmstrom · Missed · xG 0.01A. Pelech · Missed · xG 0.01T. DeAngelo · Missed · xG 0.01K. MacLean · Missed · xG 0.01M. Shabanov · On goal · xG 0.00J. Pageau · Missed · xG 0.00A. Pelech · Missed · xG 0.00
NYI4 G · 2.4 xG · 45 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

TORvsNYI
2.73 G
All situations
4 G2.4
2.43 G
Even strength
4 G2.2
0.30 G
Power play
0 G0.2

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 84 unblocked attempts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
TOR56%44%NYI

Flurry-adjusted xG 2.70 – 2.39

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

TORvsNYI
21
Shots on goal
25
57%
Faceoffs
43%
0/1
Power play
0/1
4
Penalty minutes
4
19
Hits
21
11
Blocked shots
11
19
Giveaways
17
2
Takeaways
6

Box score

every player line
Toronto Maple Leafs skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
44M. RiellyD000-410.06200—27:31
95O. Ekman-LarssonD000+200.00110—26:40
34A. MatthewsC202060.620204022:29
28T. StecherD000-110.05000—22:07
74B. McMannC011000.09020020:17
23M. KniesL000-200.25100—19:03
22J. McCabeD000+210.04110—18:07
11M. DomiC011000.00002017:21
91J. TavaresC000-210.370026917:04
63M. MaccelliL000-110.20000—16:55
2S. BenoitD000000.01710—15:44
24S. LaughtonC000030.222106014:20
33M. BenningD000000.00030—12:26
18S. LorentzC000020.02000012:05
89N. RobertsonL101+120.57000—12:02
53E. CowanR000+110.16400—11:58
55N. RoyC011+120.061007511:42
19C. JarnkrokC000000.00000010:42
Toronto Maple Leafs goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
60J. Woll(O)25214.8402.40-1.6064:11

Season series

NYI leads 3-0

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).