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Islanders at Maple Leafs
NHL

New York Islanders at Toronto Maple Leafs

NHL scoreboard
New York Islanders
▸3
Toronto Maple Leafs
1
FinalTV MSGSN, TSN4·Scotiabank Arena

Recap

written from the game data

The New York Islanders beat the Toronto Maple Leafs 3-1. The Islanders scored first and never trailed. The Islanders led 3-1 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Emil Heineman's goal at 11:57 of the second period, which took the Islanders' chances from 66% to 84%. Expected goals favored the Islanders, 3.5 to 2.5; shots on goal were NYI 34, TOR 27. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Islanders win a replay of these chances 66% of the time. Ilya Sorokin stopped 26 of 27 (.963), 1.5 goals saved above expected; Joseph Woll stopped 31 of 34 (.912), 0.5 goals saved above expected. Three stars: 1. Mathew Barzal (3 A), 2. Calum Ritchie (1 G, 1 A), 3. Steven Lorentz (1 G).

Three stars

  1. ★
    NYI
    M. Barzal3 A
  2. ★★
    NYI
    C. Ritchie1 G, 1 A
  3. ★★★
    TOR
    S. Lorentz1 G

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdT
NYINYI21218014334
TORTOR0818011127

Scoring

4 goals

1st period

  1. NYI
    B. Schenn(13)PPG
    C. Ritchie (12), M. Barzal (43)
    wristxG 0.10win prob +9 ptsVideo
    1-0
    4:15
  2. NYI
    C. Ritchie(9)PPG
    M. Barzal (44), M. Schaefer (29)
    wristxG 0.08win prob +12 ptsVideo
    2-0
    9:43

2nd period

  1. TOR
    S. Lorentz(5)
    B. Groulx (1)
    wristxG 0.08win prob +17 ptsVideo
    2-1
    4:40
  2. NYI
    E. Heineman(19)
    T. DeAngelo (27), M. Barzal (45)
    slapxG 0.24win prob +18 ptsVideo
    3-1
    11:57

Penalties

NYI 11 PIM·TOR 17 PIM

1st

  • 3:30TORNick Robertson · Slashingdrawn by Calum Ritchie2 min
  • 7:18NYIAdam Pelech · Hookingdrawn by John Tavares2 min
  • 9:34TORBrandon Carlo · High stickingdrawn by Anthony Duclair2 min

2nd

  • 1:47NYIAdam Pelech · Slashingdrawn by William Nylander2 min
  • 2:13TORDakota Joshua · Holdingdrawn by Simon Holmstrom2 min
  • 14:39NYICasey Cizikas · Hookingdrawn by Matthew Knies2 min
  • 17:12TORMorgan Rielly · Cross checkingdrawn by Kyle MacLean2 min
  • 17:12NYIKyle MacLean · Fightingdrawn by Morgan Rielly5 min
  • 17:12TORMorgan Rielly · Fightingdrawn by Kyle MacLean5 min

3rd

  • 14:57TORJohn Tavares · High sticking double minordrawn by Adam Pelech4 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
TOR goalNYI goalFinal: TOR 0%

Biggest swing: Emil Heineman, 2nd 11:57 — NYI 66% → 84%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
J. Tavares · Missed · xG 0.30J. Tavares · On goal · xG 0.23M. Domi · On goal · xG 0.20M. Knies · On goal · xG 0.16S. Lorentz · On goal · xG 0.14W. Nylander · Missed · xG 0.14M. Maccelli · On goal · xG 0.14J. Tavares · On goal · xG 0.12M. Domi · Missed · xG 0.10S. Lorentz · Goal · xG 0.08J. Tavares · On goal · xG 0.08M. Maccelli · On goal · xG 0.07M. Knies · On goal · xG 0.07J. Quillan · Missed · xG 0.06J. Quillan · Missed · xG 0.05M. Domi · On goal · xG 0.05M. Maccelli · Missed · xG 0.04M. Knies · On goal · xG 0.04E. Cowan · On goal · xG 0.04E. Cowan · Missed · xG 0.04M. Knies · Missed · xG 0.04W. Nylander · On goal · xG 0.04O. Ekman-Larsson · On goal · xG 0.03B. Carlo · Missed · xG 0.03O. Ekman-Larsson · On goal · xG 0.02J. McCabe · On goal · xG 0.02P. Myers · Missed · xG 0.02M. Domi · Missed · xG 0.02P. Myers · On goal · xG 0.02B. Carlo · On goal · xG 0.02O. Ekman-Larsson · On goal · xG 0.02J. Quillan · Missed · xG 0.02B. Carlo · On goal · xG 0.01P. Myers · On goal · xG 0.01J. McCabe · On goal · xG 0.01J. Tavares · Missed · xG 0.01S. Lorentz · On goal · xG 0.01M. Maccelli · Missed · xG 0.01B. Carlo · On goal · xG 0.01M. Rielly · Missed · xG 0.01W. Nylander · Missed · xG 0.01W. Nylander · On goal · xG 0.00B. Carlo · On goal · xG 0.00
TOR1 G · 2.5 xG · 43 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

NYIvsTOR
3.53 G
All situations
1 G2.5
2.01 G
Even strength
1 G1.8
1.22 G
Power play
0 G0.7
0.30 G
Shorthanded
0 G0.0

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 96 unblocked attempts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
NYI66%34%TOR

Flurry-adjusted xG 3.43 – 2.48

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

NYIvsTOR
34
Shots on goal
27
51%
Faceoffs
49%
2/6
Power play
0/3
11
Penalty minutes
17
9
Hits
20
8
Blocked shots
13
11
Giveaways
13
5
Takeaways
1

Box score

every player line
New York Islanders skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
48M. SchaeferD011030.11000—22:57
6R. PulockD000000.00110—20:25
77T. DeAngeloD011+130.13010—20:22
13M. BarzalC033+110.09010018:31
92S. HolmstromR000030.30000—18:21
14B. HorvatC000+130.580105817:54
3A. PelechD000010.01214—17:35
27A. LeeL000-120.39110—16:54
24S. MayfieldD000-110.03000—16:19
4C. SoucyD000020.05020—16:13
10B. SchennC101010.250005815:57
44J. PageauC000-110.170005815:57
51E. HeinemanL101+160.91200—15:32
64C. RitchieC112-140.28000015:06
11A. DuclairL000000.00000—13:36
53C. CizikasC000000.010024012:19
32K. MacLeanC000010.07105010:01
81O. PalatL000020.11200—10:01
New York Islanders goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
30I. Sorokin(W)27261.9632.52+1.5260:00

Season series

NYI leads 3-0

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).