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Predators at Sharks
NHL

Nashville Predators at San Jose Sharks

NHL scoreboard
Nashville Predators
▸6
San Jose Sharks
3
FinalTV FDSNSO, NBCSCA·SAP Center at San Jose

Recap

written from the game data

The Nashville Predators beat the San Jose Sharks 6-3. The Predators scored first and never trailed. The Predators led 3-2 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Ryan O'Reilly's goal at 8:28 of the third period, which took the Predators' chances from 48% to 79%. Expected goals favored the Predators, 3.8 to 2.6; shots on goal were NSH 34, SJS 27. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Predators win a replay of these chances 51% of the time. Juuse Saros stopped 24 of 27 (.889); Yaroslav Askarov stopped 28 of 33 (.848), 2.2 goals below expected. Three stars: 1. Tyson Jost (1 G, 2 A), 2. Ryan O'Reilly (1 G, 1 A), 3. Filip Forsberg (2 G, 1 A).

Three stars

  1. ★
    NSH
    T. Jost1 G, 2 A
  2. ★★
    NSH
    R. O'Reilly1 G, 1 A
  3. ★★★
    NSH
    F. Forsberg2 G, 1 A

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdT
NSHNSH31209313634
SJSSJS0521319327

Scoring

9 goals

1st period

  1. NSH
    F. Forsberg(36)PPG
    J. Marchessault (19), R. Josi (38)
    slapxG 0.10win prob +11 ptsVideo
    1-0
    8:38
  2. NSH
    F. Forsberg(37)
    M. Wood (13), A. Wilsby (13)
    backhandxG 0.60win prob +16 ptsVideo
    2-0
    9:54
  3. NSH
    S. Stamkos(38)PPG
    F. Forsberg (34), R. Josi (39)
    snapxG 0.17win prob +10 ptsVideo
    3-0
    16:55

2nd period

  1. SJS
    N. Leddy(1)
    W. Eklund (33)
    wristxG 0.12win prob +8 ptsVideo
    3-1
    15:49
  2. SJS
    M. Celebrini(41)
    C. Graf (23), N. Leddy (6)
    wristxG 0.13win prob +14 ptsVideo
    3-2
    19:41

3rd period

  1. SJS
    A. Wennberg(18)
    D. Orlov (31)
    backhandxG 0.17win prob +25 ptsVideo
    3-3
    1:06
  2. NSH
    R. O'Reilly(25)
    L. Evangelista (41), T. Jost (6)
    snapxG 0.19win prob +31 ptsVideo
    4-3
    8:28
  3. NSH
    E. Haula(12)SHG
    T. Jost (7)
    snapxG 0.12win prob +14 ptsVideo
    5-3
    17:26
  4. NSH
    T. Jost(8)EN
    R. O'Reilly (44), A. Wilsby (14)
    wristxG 0.93win prob +1 ptsVideo
    6-3
    18:45

Penalties

NSH 14 PIM·SJS 14 PIM

1st

  • 6:50SJSAdam Gaudette · Hookingdrawn by Joakim Kemell2 min
  • 11:49NSHRoman Josi · Hookingdrawn by Will Smith2 min
  • 14:18NSHBrady Skjei · Holdingdrawn by Adam Gaudette2 min
  • 15:07SJSDmitry Orlov · Interferencedrawn by Zachary L'Heureux2 min

2nd

  • 14:06NSHBrady Skjei · Interferencedrawn by Macklin Celebrini2 min
  • 14:35SJSWill Smith · Slashingdrawn by Roman Josi2 min
  • 19:00SJSWilliam Eklund · Roughingdrawn by Steven Stamkos2 min
  • 19:00NSHSteven Stamkos · Roughingdrawn by William Eklund2 min

3rd

  • 5:15SJSZack Ostapchuk · Roughingdrawn by Matthew Wood2 min
  • 5:15NSHMatthew Wood · Roughingdrawn by Zack Ostapchuk2 min
  • 5:15NSHMatthew Wood · Roughingdrawn by Zack Ostapchuk2 min
  • 5:15SJSZack Ostapchuk · Roughingdrawn by Matthew Wood2 min
  • 16:39NSHRoman Josi · Delaying game puck over glass2 min
  • 19:49SJSKiefer Sherwood · Interferencedrawn by Tyson Jost2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
SJS goalNSH goalFinal: SJS 0%

Biggest swing: Ryan O'Reilly, 3rd 8:28 — NSH 48% → 79%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
C. Graf · On goal · xG 0.23A. Wennberg · Goal · xG 0.17T. Toffoli · On goal · xG 0.16M. Celebrini · On goal · xG 0.15M. Celebrini · Goal · xG 0.13K. Sherwood · Missed · xG 0.13D. Orlov · On goal · xG 0.13T. Toffoli · On goal · xG 0.12M. Celebrini · On goal · xG 0.12N. Leddy · Goal · xG 0.12W. Smith · On goal · xG 0.10W. Smith · Missed · xG 0.09C. Graf · On goal · xG 0.08I. Chernyshov · On goal · xG 0.08M. Celebrini · On goal · xG 0.07W. Smith · On goal · xG 0.07M. Celebrini · Missed · xG 0.07T. Toffoli · Missed · xG 0.06M. Celebrini · On goal · xG 0.05C. Graf · On goal · xG 0.05S. Dickinson · On goal · xG 0.05S. Dickinson · Missed · xG 0.05S. Dickinson · Missed · xG 0.04A. Wennberg · Missed · xG 0.03W. Smith · Missed · xG 0.03D. Orlov · On goal · xG 0.03S. Dickinson · On goal · xG 0.03D. Orlov · On goal · xG 0.02K. Sherwood · On goal · xG 0.02N. Leddy · On goal · xG 0.02W. Smith · On goal · xG 0.02V. Desharnais · On goal · xG 0.02A. Wennberg · On goal · xG 0.02W. Eklund · On goal · xG 0.02D. Orlov · Missed · xG 0.01W. Smith · Missed · xG 0.01A. Gaudette · Missed · xG 0.01I. Chernyshov · On goal · xG 0.00
SJS3 G · 2.6 xG · 38 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

NSHvsSJS
3.85 G
All situations
3 G2.6
2.02 G
Even strength
3 G2.3
0.52 G
Power play
0 G0.3
0.31 G
Shorthanded
0 G0.0

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 85 unblocked attempts. Empty-net goals are left out of the goal counts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
NSH51%49%SJS

Flurry-adjusted xG 2.67 – 2.62

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

NSHvsSJS
34
Shots on goal
27
53%
Faceoffs
47%
2/4
Power play
0/4
14
Penalty minutes
14
25
Hits
32
17
Blocked shots
17
14
Giveaways
14
6
Takeaways
4

Box score

every player line
Nashville Predators skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
59R. JosiD022+140.08134—27:07
76B. SkjeiD000-130.05324—25:14
48N. PerbixD000-110.10030—23:55
83A. WilsbyD022+210.17310—21:32
90R. O'ReillyC112+110.190105021:26
9F. ForsbergL213020.71100—19:45
20J. BarronD000+200.00000—17:22
81J. MarchessaultR011-230.2230010017:01
56E. HaulaL101040.243205716:54
91S. StamkosC101020.191125416:14
17T. JostC123+321.161305015:40
68Z. L'HeureuxL000010.07200—15:23
77L. EvangelistaR011+150.15000—12:46
71M. WoodR011030.402045011:46
40F. SvechkovC000000.001005010:48
25J. KemellR000020.0740010007:26
49R. SchaeferL000000.00010—07:25
41N. HagueD000000.00000—02:34
Nashville Predators goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
74J. Saros(W)27243.8892.62-0.3859:42

Season series

NSH leads 2-1

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).