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Islanders at Hurricanes
NHL

New York Islanders at Carolina Hurricanes

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New York Islanders
3
Carolina Hurricanes
▸4
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Recap

written from the game data

The Carolina Hurricanes beat the New York Islanders 4-3. The Islanders scored first; the Hurricanes answered. The Hurricanes led 3-2 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Sebastian Aho's goal at 16:17 of the second period, which took the Hurricanes' chances from 50% to 72%. Expected goals favored the Hurricanes, 4.1 to 1.8; shots on goal were NYI 16, CAR 40. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Hurricanes win a replay of these chances 77% of the time. Ilya Sorokin stopped 36 of 40 (.900); Brandon Bussi stopped 13 of 16 (.813), 1.2 goals below expected. Three stars: 1. Seth Jarvis (2 G, 1 A), 2. Sebastian Aho (1 G), 3. K'Andre Miller (2 A).

Three stars

  1. ★
    CAR
    S. Jarvis2 G, 1 A
  2. ★★
    CAR
    S. Aho1 G
  3. ★★★
    CAR
    K. Miller2 A

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdT
NYINYI1412110316
CARCAR11321819440

Scoring

7 goals

1st period

  1. NYI
    M. Gatcomb(3)
    S. Holmstrom (22), J. Pageau (18)
    deflectedxG 0.16win prob +12 ptsVideo
    1-0
    5:17
  2. CAR
    S. Jarvis(31)
    S. Walker (18), K. Miller (28)
    snapxG 0.13win prob +13 ptsVideo
    1-1
    11:07

2nd period

  1. NYI
    M. Shabanov(5)
    C. Ritchie (16), S. Mayfield (12)
    wristxG 0.03win prob +16 ptsVideo
    2-1
    2:15
  2. CAR
    J. Blake(22)
    L. Stankoven (20), T. Hall (28)
    wristxG 0.11win prob +19 ptsVideo
    2-2
    11:15
  3. CAR
    S. Aho(26)SHG
    S. Jarvis (34), J. Slavin (6)
    wristxG 0.11win prob +22 ptsVideo
    2-3
    16:17

3rd period

  1. CAR
    S. Jarvis(32)
    A. Svechnikov (38), K. Miller (29)
    wristxG 0.03win prob +16 ptsVideo
    2-4
    0:24
  2. NYI
    A. Lee(19)
    M. Schaefer (36), M. Barzal (51)
    tip-inxG 0.05win prob +4 ptsVideo
    3-4
    18:23

Penalties

NYI 8 PIM·CAR 4 PIM

1st

  • 3:04NYIMarc Gatcomb · Holdingdrawn by William Carrier2 min

2nd

  • 4:58NYIAdam Pelech · Hookingdrawn by Jordan Staal2 min
  • 6:19NYIScott Mayfield · Cross checkingdrawn by Sebastian Aho2 min
  • 6:19CARSeth Jarvis · Roughingdrawn by Scott Mayfield2 min
  • 12:44NYIRyan Pulock · Hookingdrawn by Seth Jarvis2 min
  • 15:03CARAlexander Nikishin · Slashingdrawn by Scott Mayfield2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
CAR goalNYI goalFinal: CAR 100%

Biggest swing: Sebastian Aho, 2nd 16:17 — CAR 50% → 72%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
S. Jarvis · Missed · xG 0.60S. Aho · On goal · xG 0.35S. Aho · On goal · xG 0.20A. Nikishin · On goal · xG 0.19A. Svechnikov · On goal · xG 0.18S. Aho · On goal · xG 0.15S. Jarvis · Goal · xG 0.13J. Martinook · On goal · xG 0.11S. Aho · Goal · xG 0.11J. Blake · Goal · xG 0.11L. Stankoven · On goal · xG 0.11S. Jarvis · On goal · xG 0.11T. Hall · Missed · xG 0.10N. Ehlers · On goal · xG 0.09J. Martinook · Missed · xG 0.09S. Jarvis · On goal · xG 0.08J. Chatfield · Missed · xG 0.08S. Jarvis · On goal · xG 0.08S. Aho · On goal · xG 0.07J. Chatfield · On goal · xG 0.07T. Hall · Missed · xG 0.07J. Blake · On goal · xG 0.07J. Chatfield · Missed · xG 0.07A. Svechnikov · Missed · xG 0.07W. Carrier · On goal · xG 0.06J. Staal · Missed · xG 0.05J. Blake · Missed · xG 0.05J. Chatfield · On goal · xG 0.05A. Svechnikov · On goal · xG 0.05J. Blake · On goal · xG 0.04S. Jarvis · On goal · xG 0.04S. Jarvis · Missed · xG 0.04K. Miller · Missed · xG 0.03J. Chatfield · On goal · xG 0.03J. Staal · On goal · xG 0.03S. Jarvis · Goal · xG 0.03S. Gostisbehere · On goal · xG 0.03J. Staal · Missed · xG 0.03S. Aho · On goal · xG 0.02A. Nikishin · On goal · xG 0.02M. Jankowski · Missed · xG 0.02N. Ehlers · Missed · xG 0.02S. Aho · On goal · xG 0.02T. Hall · On goal · xG 0.02J. Martinook · On goal · xG 0.01N. Ehlers · Missed · xG 0.01N. Ehlers · Missed · xG 0.01E. Robinson · On goal · xG 0.01S. Gostisbehere · On goal · xG 0.01A. Nikishin · Missed · xG 0.01K. Miller · Missed · xG 0.01S. Gostisbehere · On goal · xG 0.01J. Slavin · On goal · xG 0.01A. Svechnikov · Missed · xG 0.01N. Ehlers · On goal · xG 0.01K. Miller · On goal · xG 0.01J. Slavin · On goal · xG 0.01S. Gostisbehere · Missed · xG 0.01J. Chatfield · On goal · xG 0.01J. Martinook · Missed · xG 0.01N. Ehlers · On goal · xG 0.00
CAR4 G · 4.1 xG · 61 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

NYIvsCAR
1.83 G
All situations
4 G4.1
1.33 G
Even strength
3 G2.4
0.50 G
Power play
0 G1.0
0.00 G
Shorthanded
1 G0.1

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 86 unblocked attempts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
NYI23%77%CAR

Flurry-adjusted xG 1.81 – 3.44

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

NYIvsCAR
16
Shots on goal
40
53%
Faceoffs
47%
0/1
Power play
0/3
8
Penalty minutes
4
23
Hits
21
19
Blocked shots
7
15
Giveaways
6
4
Takeaways
5

Box score

every player line
New York Islanders skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
48M. SchaeferD011-110.28210—27:11
3A. PelechD000010.00222—22:22
14B. HorvatC000010.230105920:43
6R. PulockD000-200.00002—19:36
4C. SoucyD000000.02230—19:21
64C. RitchieC011-110.05110017:13
10B. SchennC000000.003104417:11
27A. LeeL101+140.43110—16:46
13M. BarzalC011-220.04020016:30
24S. MayfieldD011000.02202—16:12
92S. HolmstromR011-100.07000—15:58
44J. PageauC011010.272205015:48
53C. CizikasC000000.012206014:28
51E. HeinemanL000000.00100—13:50
49M. ShabanovR101010.12200—13:35
16M. GatcombC101+120.24302010:31
36I. GeorgeD000+110.01010—10:21
81O. PalatL000010.0502010009:46
New York Islanders goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
30I. Sorokin(L)40364.9003.52-0.4856:38

Season series

CAR leads 3-0

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).