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Montréal Canadiens at New York Rangers

FinalTV MSG, TSN2·Madison Square Garden

Recap

written from the game data

The Montréal Canadiens beat the New York Rangers 3-2. The Canadiens scored first and never trailed. The Canadiens led 2-0 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Cole Caufield's goal at 14:55 of the third period, which took the Canadiens' chances from 48% to 88%. Expected goals favored the Canadiens, 3.5 to 2.9; shots on goal were MTL 25, NYR 24. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Rangers win a replay of these chances 58% of the time. Jacob Fowler stopped 22 of 24 (.917), 0.9 goals saved above expected; Igor Shesterkin stopped 22 of 25 (.880), 0.6 goals below expected. Three stars: 1. Cole Caufield (2 G), 2. Jacob Fowler (22 saves, .917), 3. Will Cuylle (1 G).

Three stars

  1. ★
    MTL
    C. Caufield2 G
  2. ★★
    MTL
    J. Fowler22 saves, .917
  3. ★★★
    NYR
    W. Cuylle1 G

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdT
MTLMTL0821116325
NYRNYR0705212224

Scoring

5 goals

2nd period

  1. MTL
    slapxG 0.06win prob +17 ptsVideo
    1-0
    4:36
  2. MTL
    snapxG 0.09win prob +17 ptsVideo
    2-0
    6:20

3rd period

  1. NYR
    snapxG 0.07win prob +15 ptsVideo
    2-1
    9:23
  2. NYR
    deflectedxG 0.17win prob +38 ptsVideo
    2-2
    14:08
  3. MTL
    wristxG 0.11win prob +40 ptsVideo
    3-2
    14:55

Penalties

MTL 6 PIM·NYR 4 PIM

1st

  • 7:21MTLJuraj Slafkovský · High sticking double minordrawn by Vladislav Gavrikov4 min
  • 11:49NYRNoah Laba · Hookingdrawn by Oliver Kapanen2 min

2nd

  • 9:12NYRWill Borgen · High stickingdrawn by Zachary Bolduc2 min
  • 13:41MTLserved by Ivan Demidov · Too many men on the ice2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
NYR goalMTL goalFinal: NYR 0%

Biggest swing: Cole Caufield, 3rd 14:55 — MTL 48% → 88%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
W. Cuylle · On goal · xG 0.18M. Zibanejad · Missed · xG 0.18W. Cuylle · Goal · xG 0.17J. Miller · On goal · xG 0.16C. Sheary · Missed · xG 0.15C. Sheary · On goal · xG 0.14A. Lafrenière · On goal · xG 0.12A. Lafrenière · Missed · xG 0.12A. Lafrenière · On goal · xG 0.11N. Laba · On goal · xG 0.11V. Gavrikov · On goal · xG 0.10C. Sheary · On goal · xG 0.10W. Cuylle · Missed · xG 0.09A. Lafrenière · On goal · xG 0.09W. Cuylle · Missed · xG 0.08V. Trocheck · On goal · xG 0.08A. Lafrenière · Missed · xG 0.07A. Fox · Goal · xG 0.07A. Lafrenière · Missed · xG 0.06V. Trocheck · On goal · xG 0.06J. Brodzinski · On goal · xG 0.06W. Cuylle · On goal · xG 0.06W. Cuylle · On goal · xG 0.05T. Kartye · On goal · xG 0.04A. Fox · Missed · xG 0.04A. Lafrenière · On goal · xG 0.04W. Cuylle · Missed · xG 0.04W. Cuylle · On goal · xG 0.03A. Fox · Missed · xG 0.03V. Gavrikov · On goal · xG 0.03A. Fox · Missed · xG 0.03C. Sheary · Missed · xG 0.03A. Fox · Missed · xG 0.03J. Chmelar · On goal · xG 0.02B. Schneider · Missed · xG 0.02M. Robertson · Missed · xG 0.02B. Schneider · Missed · xG 0.02W. Borgen · On goal · xG 0.02W. Borgen · Missed · xG 0.02A. Lafrenière · Missed · xG 0.02B. Schneider · Missed · xG 0.01D. Fortescue · On goal · xG 0.01W. Cuylle · On goal · xG 0.00
NYR2 G · 2.9 xG · 43 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

MTLvsNYR
3.53 G
All situations
2 G2.9
2.03 G
Even strength
2 G1.6
0.20 G
Power play
0 G1.3
0.20 G
Shorthanded
0 G0.0

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 81 unblocked attempts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
MTL42%58%NYR

Flurry-adjusted xG 2.40 – 2.86

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

MTLvsNYR
25
Shots on goal
24
58%
Faceoffs
42%
0/2
Power play
0/3
6
Penalty minutes
4
22
Hits
27
13
Blocked shots
5
15
Giveaways
18
3
Takeaways
5

Box score

every player line
Montréal Canadiens skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
48L. HutsonD000+110.07120—25:54
8M. MathesonD011000.00100—23:22
53N. DobsonD000-110.05130—22:43
14N. SuzukiC022+210.781004721:17
20J. SlafkovskýL011+220.6301410020:38
71J. EvansC000000.311006719:11
21K. GuhleD000+110.02440—18:58
17J. AndersonR000030.04010—16:26
13C. CaufieldR202+271.14000—16:20
47J. StrubleD000000.00410—15:57
24P. DanaultC000-120.151007113:58
76Z. BolducR000010.01200—13:07
15A. NewhookC101020.080007112:32
93I. DemidovR011020.06000—12:30
91O. KapanenC000000.002003311:54
90J. VelenoC000-100.00200010:38
72A. XhekajD000+100.03110—09:45
11B. GallagherR000-120.11100—08:50
Montréal Canadiens goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
32J. Fowler(W)24222.9172.90+0.9060:00

Season series

NYR leads 2-1

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).