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Hurricanes at Lightning
NHL

Carolina Hurricanes at Tampa Bay Lightning

NHL scoreboard
Carolina Hurricanes
▸4
Tampa Bay Lightning
2
FinalTV FDSNSO, The Spot·Benchmark International Arena

Recap

written from the game data

The Carolina Hurricanes beat the Tampa Bay Lightning 4-2. The Hurricanes scored first and never trailed. It was tied 2-2 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Jordan Martinook's goal at 9:18 of the third period, which took the Hurricanes' chances from 48% to 80%. Expected goals favored the Hurricanes, 4.0 to 2.6; shots on goal were CAR 35, TBL 19. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Hurricanes win a replay of these chances 64% of the time. Frederik Andersen stopped 17 of 19 (.895), 0.6 goals saved above expected; Andrei Vasilevskiy stopped 31 of 34 (.912). Three stars: 1. Andrei Svechnikov (1 G, 1 A), 2. Sebastian Aho (1 G, 1 A), 3. Charle-Edouard D'Astous (1 G).

Three stars

  1. ★
    CAR
    A. Svechnikov1 G, 1 A
  2. ★★
    CAR
    S. Aho1 G, 1 A
  3. ★★★
    TBL
    C. D'Astous1 G

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdT
CARCAR213011211435
TBLTBL0102702219

Scoring

6 goals

1st period

  1. CAR
    A. Svechnikov(24)
    S. Aho (44), S. Walker (15)
    snapxG 0.15win prob +11 ptsVideo
    1-0
    0:36
  2. CAR
    S. Aho(24)
    A. Svechnikov (34), K. Miller (26)
    wristxG 0.46win prob +13 ptsVideo
    2-0
    17:28

2nd period

  1. TBL
    Y. Gourde(8)
    V. Hedman (16), P. Holmberg (10)
    snapxG 0.06win prob +17 ptsVideo
    2-1
    14:10
  2. TBL
    C. D'Astous(4)
    B. Point (27), G. Goncalves (14)
    tip-inxG 0.12win prob +21 ptsVideo
    2-2
    15:31

3rd period

  1. CAR
    J. Martinook(9)
    N. Ehlers (32), M. Reilly (8)
    wristxG 0.02win prob +32 ptsVideo
    3-2
    9:18
  2. CAR
    L. Stankoven(13)EN
    T. Hall (22)
    snapxG 0.52win prob +5 ptsVideo
    4-2
    18:29

Penalties

CAR 13 PIM·TBL 11 PIM

1st

  • 6:27CARAndrei Svechnikov · Slashingdrawn by Zemgus Girgensons2 min
  • 10:40TBLYanni Gourde · Hookingdrawn by William Carrier2 min
  • 14:29CARSeth Jarvis · Roughingdrawn by Zemgus Girgensons2 min
  • 14:29CARSeth Jarvis · Fightingdrawn by Zemgus Girgensons5 min
  • 14:29TBLZemgus Girgensons · Fightingdrawn by Seth Jarvis5 min

2nd

  • 4:32TBLPontus Holmberg · Roughingdrawn by Sebastian Aho2 min
  • 4:32CARSebastian Aho · Roughingdrawn by Pontus Holmberg2 min
  • 9:05CARSean Walker · Hookingdrawn by Nikita Kucherov2 min
  • 9:20TBLBrandon Hagel · Hookingdrawn by Jalen Chatfield2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
TBL goalCAR goalFinal: TBL 0%

Biggest swing: Jordan Martinook, 3rd 9:18 — CAR 48% → 80%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
N. Kucherov · Missed · xG 0.27N. Kucherov · On goal · xG 0.24A. Cirelli · Missed · xG 0.23Z. Girgensons · On goal · xG 0.22Y. Gourde · On goal · xG 0.19B. Hagel · On goal · xG 0.14Z. Girgensons · Missed · xG 0.13N. Kucherov · On goal · xG 0.12C. D'Astous · Goal · xG 0.11B. Point · On goal · xG 0.10N. Kucherov · On goal · xG 0.09O. Bjorkstrand · Missed · xG 0.08Y. Gourde · On goal · xG 0.08C. D'Astous · Missed · xG 0.08N. Paul · Missed · xG 0.07N. Kucherov · On goal · xG 0.07B. Hagel · On goal · xG 0.07Y. Gourde · Goal · xG 0.06B. Hagel · On goal · xG 0.05P. Holmberg · Missed · xG 0.04V. Hedman · On goal · xG 0.04N. Kucherov · On goal · xG 0.03R. McDonagh · On goal · xG 0.02N. Paul · On goal · xG 0.02J. Moser · On goal · xG 0.01R. McDonagh · On goal · xG 0.01O. Bjorkstrand · Missed · xG 0.00
TBL2 G · 2.6 xG · 27 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

CARvsTBL
4.03 G
All situations
2 G2.6
3.23 G
Even strength
2 G1.9
0.30 G
Power play
0 G0.7

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 79 unblocked attempts. Empty-net goals are left out of the goal counts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
CAR64%36%TBL

Flurry-adjusted xG 3.35 – 2.51

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

CARvsTBL
35
Shots on goal
19
54%
Faceoffs
46%
0/2
Power play
0/3
13
Penalty minutes
11
27
Hits
26
10
Blocked shots
14
13
Giveaways
14
9
Takeaways
4

Box score

every player line
Carolina Hurricanes skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
74J. SlavinD000+100.00010—24:16
19K. MillerD011+120.03320—24:05
5J. ChatfieldD000030.04110—23:10
20S. AhoC112+120.582024020:28
26S. WalkerD011+120.19332—20:13
37A. SvechnikovR112+160.37402—19:24
53J. BlakeR000+140.52000—17:56
24S. JarvisR000-120.1600710016:14
22L. StankovenC101+110.6800010014:51
27N. EhlersL011+220.25000—14:19
71T. HallL011+120.42100—14:17
21A. NikishinD000020.03110—14:03
48J. MartinookL101+210.10200—13:45
11J. StaalC000+120.353005713:35
6M. ReillyD011+100.03110—12:31
50E. RobinsonL000-100.00300—10:13
77M. JankowskiL000-120.081105009:53
28W. CarrierL000-120.19200—09:13
Carolina Hurricanes goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
31F. Andersen(W)19172.8952.59+0.5959:34

Season series

CAR leads 2-1

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).