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Hurricanes at Lightning
NHL

Carolina Hurricanes at Tampa Bay Lightning

NHL scoreboard
Carolina Hurricanes
4
Tampa Bay Lightning
▸6
FinalTV FDSNSO, The Spot·Benchmark International Arena

Recap

written from the game data

The Tampa Bay Lightning beat the Carolina Hurricanes 6-4. The Lightning came back from three goals down. It was tied 3-3 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Jake Guentzel's goal at 6:38 of the third period, which took the Lightning's chances from 52% to 80%. Expected goals favored the Lightning, 4.4 to 1.8; shots on goal were CAR 22, TBL 29. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Lightning win a replay of these chances 81% of the time. Pyotr Kochetkov stopped 23 of 28 (.821), 1.1 goals below expected; Andrei Vasilevskiy stopped 18 of 22 (.818), 2.2 goals below expected. Three stars: 1. Jake Guentzel (2 G), 2. Dominic James (2 A), 3. Yanni Gourde (1 A).

Three stars

  1. ★
    TBL
    J. Guentzel2 G
  2. ★★
    TBL
    D. James2 A
  3. ★★★
    TBL
    Y. Gourde1 A

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdT
CARCAR3100616422
TBLTBL0631439629

Scoring

10 goals

1st period

  1. CAR
    E. Robinson(7)
    J. Staal (5)
    slapxG 0.08win prob +12 ptsVideo
    1-0
    2:42
  2. CAR
    J. Blake(10)PPG
    N. Ehlers (16), S. Gostisbehere (23)
    tip-inxG 0.06win prob +12 ptsVideo
    2-0
    4:00
  3. CAR
    B. Nadeau(2)PPG
    L. Stankoven (10)
    wristxG 0.14win prob +8 ptsVideo
    3-0
    12:27

2nd period

  1. TBL
    G. Goncalves(3)
    D. James (4), M. Crozier (5)
    snapxG 0.21win prob +11 ptsVideo
    3-1
    0:30
  2. TBL
    B. Point(6)
    C. D'Astous (7), N. Kucherov (30)
    tip-inxG 0.25win prob +16 ptsVideo
    3-2
    1:20
  3. TBL
    J. Finley(2)
    D. James (5), Y. Gourde (7)
    wristxG 0.33win prob +22 ptsVideo
    3-3
    16:36

3rd period

  1. CAR
    A. Svechnikov(8)
    M. Jankowski (4), J. Kotkaniemi (4)
    backhandxG 0.27win prob +26 ptsVideo
    4-3
    2:47
  2. TBL
    R. McDonagh(4)
    P. Holmberg (6), C. D'Astous (8)
    wristxG 0.18win prob +26 ptsVideo
    4-4
    3:13
  3. TBL
    J. Guentzel(16)
    J. Moser (9), N. Paul (5)
    backhandxG 0.18win prob +28 ptsVideo
    4-5
    6:38
  4. TBL
    J. Guentzel(17)EN
    R. McDonagh (4)
    wristxG 0.50win prob +2 ptsVideo
    4-6
    19:33

Penalties

CAR 10 PIM·TBL 14 PIM

1st

  • 3:27TBLDeclan Carlile · Holdingdrawn by Eric Robinson2 min
  • 6:00CARAndrei Svechnikov · Interferencedrawn by Zemgus Girgensons2 min
  • 10:35TBLJack Finley · High sticking double minordrawn by Mike Reilly4 min
  • 14:36TBLZemgus Girgensons · High stickingdrawn by Bradly Nadeau2 min

2nd

  • 2:07TBLNick Paul · Roughingdrawn by Mark Jankowski2 min
  • 2:07CARMark Jankowski · Roughingdrawn by Nick Paul2 min
  • 2:07CARJesperi Kotkaniemi · Roughingdrawn by Declan Carlile2 min
  • 2:07TBLDeclan Carlile · Roughingdrawn by Jesperi Kotkaniemi2 min
  • 2:07CARJesperi Kotkaniemi · Roughingdrawn by Declan Carlile2 min
  • 18:07TBLDarren Raddysh · Roughingdrawn by Logan Stankoven2 min

3rd

  • 14:32CARAndrei Svechnikov · Trippingdrawn by Oliver Bjorkstrand2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
TBL goalCAR goalFinal: TBL 100%

Biggest swing: Jake Guentzel, 3rd 6:38 — TBL 52% → 80%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
J. Guentzel · Goal · xG 0.50J. Finley · Goal · xG 0.33J. Guentzel · On goal · xG 0.27B. Point · Goal · xG 0.25G. Goncalves · Goal · xG 0.21N. Paul · On goal · xG 0.19R. McDonagh · Goal · xG 0.18J. Guentzel · Goal · xG 0.18Y. Gourde · On goal · xG 0.17Y. Gourde · Missed · xG 0.15D. Raddysh · On goal · xG 0.15B. Point · On goal · xG 0.14J. Moser · On goal · xG 0.13Y. Gourde · Missed · xG 0.13J. Guentzel · Missed · xG 0.12J. Finley · On goal · xG 0.11J. Guentzel · On goal · xG 0.11D. Raddysh · On goal · xG 0.10B. Point · Missed · xG 0.09N. Kucherov · On goal · xG 0.09B. Point · On goal · xG 0.09A. Cirelli · Missed · xG 0.08J. Guentzel · On goal · xG 0.07N. Paul · Missed · xG 0.06N. Kucherov · On goal · xG 0.06N. Paul · Missed · xG 0.05P. Holmberg · Missed · xG 0.05P. Holmberg · On goal · xG 0.05A. Cirelli · On goal · xG 0.05D. Carlile · Missed · xG 0.03A. Cirelli · Missed · xG 0.03Z. Girgensons · Missed · xG 0.03A. Cirelli · Missed · xG 0.03P. Holmberg · On goal · xG 0.03Y. Gourde · Missed · xG 0.03D. Raddysh · On goal · xG 0.03N. Paul · Missed · xG 0.01J. Moser · On goal · xG 0.01Y. Gourde · On goal · xG 0.01J. Moser · On goal · xG 0.01N. Paul · Missed · xG 0.01M. Crozier · Missed · xG 0.01J. Moser · On goal · xG 0.00Z. Girgensons · On goal · xG 0.00D. Carlile · On goal · xG 0.00
TBL6 G · 4.4 xG · 45 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

CARvsTBL
1.84 G
All situations
5 G4.4
1.12 G
Even strength
5 G3.4
0.72 G
Power play
0 G0.4
0.00 G
Shorthanded
0 G0.1

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 80 unblocked attempts. Empty-net goals are left out of the goal counts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
CAR19%81%TBL

Flurry-adjusted xG 1.83 – 3.80

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

CARvsTBL
22
Shots on goal
29
42%
Faceoffs
58%
2/5
Power play
0/3
10
Penalty minutes
14
23
Hits
19
15
Blocked shots
15
13
Giveaways
14
6
Takeaways
1

Box score

every player line
Carolina Hurricanes skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
19K. MillerD000-110.04220—21:28
20S. AhoC000-310.101003321:19
5J. ChatfieldD000-210.03010—19:59
21A. NikishinD000+100.02220—19:45
27N. EhlersL011-310.06020—19:36
53J. BlakeR101-310.06000—19:25
37A. SvechnikovR101-120.50204—18:12
4S. GostisbehereD011-210.03010—18:11
26S. WalkerD000-130.08200—18:05
22L. StankovenC011-120.230005016:22
71T. HallL000-220.22030—15:52
11J. StaalC011-100.004103915:08
50E. RobinsonL101030.15100—13:50
6M. ReillyD000-200.01010—13:45
29B. NadeauL101-240.31400—13:06
77M. JankowskiL011+100.001025510:55
82J. KotkaniemiC011+100.00104010:06
28W. CarrierL000000.00320—09:50
Carolina Hurricanes goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
52P. Kochetkov(L)28235.8213.93-1.0759:06

Season series

CAR leads 2-1

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).