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Lightning at Hurricanes
NHL

Tampa Bay Lightning at Carolina Hurricanes

NHL scoreboard
Tampa Bay Lightning
4
Carolina Hurricanes
▸5
FinalTV FDSNSO, The Spot·Lenovo Center

Recap

written from the game data

The Carolina Hurricanes beat the Tampa Bay Lightning 5-4. The Hurricanes scored first and never trailed. It was tied 4-4 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Sebastian Aho's goal at 7:17 of the third period, which took the Hurricanes' chances from 58% to 81%. Expected goals favored the Lightning, 3.3 to 2.7; shots on goal were TBL 28, CAR 33. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Lightning win a replay of these chances 68% of the time. Jonas Johansson stopped 28 of 33 (.848), 2.8 goals below expected; Brandon Bussi stopped 24 of 28 (.857), 0.7 goals below expected. Three stars: 1. Logan Stankoven (1 G, 1 A), 2. Taylor Hall (1 G, 1 A), 3. Seth Jarvis (1 G, 1 A).

Three stars

  1. ★
    CAR
    L. Stankoven1 G, 1 A
  2. ★★
    CAR
    T. Hall1 G, 1 A
  3. ★★★
    CAR
    S. Jarvis1 G, 1 A

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdT
TBLTBL21121106428
CARCAR313110110533

Scoring

9 goals

1st period

  1. CAR
    N. Ehlers(15)
    K. Miller (20), J. Martinook (12)
    snapxG 0.07win prob +11 ptsVideo
    0-1
    1:43
  2. CAR
    L. Stankoven(11)
    T. Hall (16), J. Chatfield (13)
    snapxG 0.18win prob +14 ptsVideo
    0-2
    2:56
  3. CAR
    T. Hall(13)
    J. Blake (18), L. Stankoven (16)
    wristxG 0.16win prob +10 ptsVideo
    0-3
    6:41
  4. TBL
    B. Hagel(28)
    S. Sabourin (3), J. Guentzel (35)
    snapxG 0.11win prob +9 ptsVideo
    1-3
    16:30
  5. TBL
    N. Kucherov(31)
    B. Point (21), J. Moser (15)
    snapxG 0.12win prob +15 ptsVideo
    2-3
    17:05

2nd period

  1. TBL
    D. James(6)
    J. Guentzel (36), R. McDonagh (7)
    snapxG 0.16win prob +16 ptsVideo
    3-3
    1:58
  2. CAR
    S. Jarvis(26)
    A. Svechnikov (29), M. Jankowski (9)
    wristxG 0.12win prob +17 ptsVideo
    3-4
    7:21
  3. TBL
    B. Point(14)PPG
    J. Guentzel (37), D. Raddysh (36)
    snapxG 0.17win prob +15 ptsVideo
    4-4
    14:02

3rd period

  1. CAR
    S. Aho(21)PPG
    S. Jarvis (19), A. Svechnikov (30)
    slapxG 0.07win prob +23 ptsVideo
    4-5
    7:17

Penalties

TBL 4 PIM·CAR 4 PIM

2nd

  • 13:56CARSebastian Aho · Holding the stickdrawn by Nikita Kucherov2 min
  • 15:33TBLNikita Kucherov · Slashingdrawn by Andrei Svechnikov2 min

3rd

  • 2:34CARJackson Blake · Holdingdrawn by Declan Carlile2 min
  • 6:43TBLGage Goncalves · Trippingdrawn by K'Andre Miller2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
CAR goalTBL goalFinal: CAR 100%

Biggest swing: Sebastian Aho, 3rd 7:17 — CAR 58% → 81%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
A. Svechnikov · Missed · xG 0.46W. Carrier · Missed · xG 0.20L. Stankoven · Goal · xG 0.18T. Hall · On goal · xG 0.16T. Hall · Goal · xG 0.16S. Jarvis · On goal · xG 0.12S. Jarvis · Goal · xG 0.12N. Ehlers · Missed · xG 0.12S. Aho · On goal · xG 0.10A. Svechnikov · On goal · xG 0.08M. Jankowski · On goal · xG 0.08S. Aho · Goal · xG 0.07J. Staal · On goal · xG 0.07N. Ehlers · Goal · xG 0.07E. Robinson · Missed · xG 0.06S. Aho · On goal · xG 0.06L. Stankoven · On goal · xG 0.05S. Jarvis · On goal · xG 0.05W. Carrier · On goal · xG 0.05N. Ehlers · On goal · xG 0.04E. Robinson · On goal · xG 0.03A. Nikishin · On goal · xG 0.03A. Nikishin · On goal · xG 0.03K. Miller · On goal · xG 0.03A. Svechnikov · On goal · xG 0.03A. Nikishin · On goal · xG 0.03A. Nikishin · Missed · xG 0.02S. Gostisbehere · On goal · xG 0.02A. Nikishin · On goal · xG 0.02J. Blake · On goal · xG 0.02N. Ehlers · On goal · xG 0.02S. Gostisbehere · On goal · xG 0.01A. Svechnikov · On goal · xG 0.01S. Gostisbehere · Missed · xG 0.01A. Svechnikov · Missed · xG 0.01W. Carrier · Missed · xG 0.01W. Carrier · On goal · xG 0.01J. Slavin · On goal · xG 0.01J. Slavin · On goal · xG 0.00E. Robinson · On goal · xG 0.00J. Martinook · On goal · xG 0.00
CAR5 G · 2.7 xG · 41 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

TBLvsCAR
3.34 G
All situations
5 G2.7
2.23 G
Even strength
4 G1.8
1.11 G
Power play
1 G0.4
0.10 G
Shorthanded
0 G0.0

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 81 unblocked attempts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
TBL68%32%CAR

Flurry-adjusted xG 3.26 – 2.20

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

TBLvsCAR
28
Shots on goal
33
55%
Faceoffs
45%
1/2
Power play
1/2
4
Penalty minutes
4
15
Hits
23
20
Blocked shots
16
20
Giveaways
20
6
Takeaways
7

Box score

every player line
Tampa Bay Lightning skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
43D. RaddyshD011-140.14050—26:01
86N. KucherovR101020.36012—25:07
21B. PointC112020.701005022:06
59J. GuentzelC033+140.541106322:03
38B. HagelL101020.16010—20:42
90J. MoserD011020.02100—19:42
17D. JamesC101040.620008216:55
37Y. GourdeC000-230.204005016:04
27R. McDonaghD011+200.16000—15:43
81E. CernakD000+220.06010—15:26
93G. GoncalvesC000020.04102014:55
28Z. GirgensonsC000-100.002104014:53
77V. HedmanD000-100.00030—14:21
29P. HolmbergR000-110.20100—14:01
51C. D'AstousD000-300.00020—13:19
22O. BjorkstrandR000000.06040—13:01
67D. CarlileD000-100.02210—11:04
46S. SabourinR011000.00200—05:00
Tampa Bay Lightning goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
31J. Johansson(L)33285.8482.22-2.7857:03

Season series

CAR leads 2-1

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).