Ducks at Jets 4-1 — Recap, Win Probability & Shot Map

NHL scoreboard

Anaheim Ducks

▸4

Winnipeg Jets

FinalTV Victory+, KCOP-13·Canada Life Centre

Recap

written from the game data

The Anaheim Ducks beat the Winnipeg Jets 4-1. The Jets scored first; the Ducks answered. The Ducks led 3-1 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Ryan Poehling's goal at 6:38 of the second period, which took the Ducks' chances from 47% to 65%. Expected goals favored the Ducks, 3.5 to 1.7; shots on goal were ANA 35, WPG 13. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Ducks win a replay of these chances 68% of the time. Lukas Dostal stopped 12 of 13 (.923), 0.7 goals saved above expected; Connor Hellebuyck stopped 31 of 34 (.912). Three stars: 1. Alex Killorn (1 G, 1 A), 2. Ryan Poehling (1 G, 1 A), 3. Morgan Barron (1 G).

Three stars

★
A. Killorn1 G, 1 A
★★
R. Poehling1 G, 1 A
★★★
M. Barron1 G

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath

Goals and shots on goal by period
Team	1st	2nd	3rd	T
ANA	08	320	17	435
WPG	02	15	06	113

Scoring

5 goals

2nd period

M. Barron(10)
E. Salomonsson (1), C. Perfetti (15)
tip-inxG 0.10win prob +17 ptsVideo
0-1
5:04
T. Washe(2)
J. Harkins (4), R. Gudas (11)
snapxG 0.10win prob +17 ptsVideo
1-1
6:24
R. Poehling(8)
A. Killorn (13), J. LaCombe (37)
tip-inxG 0.05win prob +18 ptsVideo
2-1
6:38
A. Killorn(9)
R. Poehling (19)
wristxG 0.06win prob +17 ptsVideo
3-1
8:08

3rd period

J. LaCombe(8)EN
J. Trouba (21)
wristxG 0.36Video
4-1
19:34

Penalties

6 PIM·

4 PIM

1st

11:31Beckett Sennecke · Trippingdrawn by Josh Morrissey2 min

2nd

15:32Adam Lowry · Slashingdrawn by Leo Carlsson2 min

3rd

0:40Jeffrey Viel · Holdingdrawn by Dylan DeMelo2 min
14:39Cole Perfetti · High stickingdrawn by Pavel Mintyukov2 min
15:01Beckett Sennecke · Interferencedrawn by Cole Koepke2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game

Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number

goal

goalFinal: WPG

Biggest swing: Ryan Poehling, 2nd 6:38 — ANA 47% → 65%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG

1 G · 1.7 xG · 29 att

←

attacks

attacks →

4 G · 3.5 xG · 48 att WPG

1 G · 1.7 xG · 29 att

Tap a shot for who, when and how likely

GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

3.53 G
All situations: 1 G1.7; 2.43 G
Even strength: 1 G1.0; 0.30 G
Power play: 0 G0.5; 0.00 G
Shorthanded: 0 G0.2

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 77 unblocked attempts. Empty-net goals are left out of the goal counts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created

68%32%

Flurry-adjusted xG 2.65 – 1.68

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

35
Shots on goal: 13; 43%
Faceoffs: 57%; 0/2
Power play: 0/3; 6
Penalty minutes: 4; 15
Hits: 15; 11
Blocked shots: 12; 13
Giveaways: 12; 4
Takeaways: 3

Box score

every player line

Anaheim Ducks skaters
Skater	G	A	P	+/-	SOG	ixG	Hit	Blk	PIM	FO%	TOI
2J. LaCombeD	1	1	2	+2	4	0.43	0	1	0	—	27:21
65J. TroubaD	0	1	1	+1	2	0.08	1	2	0	—	27:02
64M. GranlundC	0	0	0	+1	1	0.11	0	0	0	60	18:58
17A. KillornL	1	1	2	+2	1	0.10	0	0	0	100	17:50
45B. SenneckeR	0	0	0	0	2	0.22	0	2	4	—	17:37
51O. ZellwegerD	0	0	0	+2	2	0.49	1	2	0	—	16:26
98P. MintyukovD	0	0	0	-1	0	0.00	0	2	0	—	16:19
7R. GudasD	0	1	1	+2	0	0.00	0	0	0	—	16:14
91L. CarlssonC	0	0	0	-1	2	0.05	0	0	0	50	16:12
25R. PoehlingC	1	1	2	+3	5	0.52	3	0	0	25	16:06
61C. GauthierL	0	0	0	-1	6	0.43	1	0	0	50	15:41
3I. MooreD	0	0	0	0	1	0.04	0	1	0	—	15:19
20C. KreiderL	0	0	0	-1	0	0.20	2	0	0	—	14:57
23M. McTavishC	0	0	0	0	1	0.17	1	0	0	33	14:42
28J. VielL	0	0	0	+2	1	0.11	0	0	2	—	13:18
42T. WasheC	1	0	1	+2	2	0.34	1	0	0	46	13:04
44R. JohnstonL	0	0	0	+1	1	0.04	3	0	0	—	08:49
24J. HarkinsC	0	1	1	+1	4	0.15	2	1	0	0	08:37

Anaheim Ducks goalies
Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	xGA	GSAx	TOI
1L. Dostal(W)	13	12	1	.923	1.72	+0.72	59:28

Season series

ANA leads 3-0

Nov 91@4Final
Feb 274@5OTFinal
Mar 104@1this game

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).

Anaheim Ducks at Winnipeg Jets

2nd period

3rd period

1st

2nd

3rd

Box score