Blues at Wild 3-1 — Recap, Win Probability & Shot Map

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St. Louis Blues

▸3

Minnesota Wild

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Recap

written from the game data

The St. Louis Blues beat the Minnesota Wild 3-1. The Wild scored first; the Blues answered. It was tied 1-1 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Pavel Buchnevich's goal at 16:21 of the third period, which took the Blues' chances from 48% to 91%. Expected goals were close — STL 2.6, MIN 2.4; shots on goal were STL 24, MIN 23. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Wild win a replay of these chances 65% of the time. Joel Hofer stopped 22 of 23 (.957), 1.4 goals saved above expected; Filip Gustavsson stopped 21 of 23 (.913). Three stars: 1. Joel Hofer (22 saves, .957), 2. Robert Thomas (1 G, 1 A), 3. Kirill Kaprizov (1 G).

Three stars

★
J. Hofer22 saves, .957
★★
R. Thomas1 G, 1 A
★★★
K. Kaprizov1 G

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath

Goals and shots on goal by period
Team	1st	2nd	3rd	T
STL	07	17	210	324
MIN	08	111	04	123

Scoring

4 goals

2nd period

K. Kaprizov(34)PPG
M. Boldy (34), Q. Hughes (54)
tip-inxG 0.19win prob +17 ptsVideo
0-1
16:09
L. Mailloux(2)
R. Thomas (23), B. Schenn (13)
snapxG 0.04win prob +22 ptsVideo
1-1
18:05

3rd period

P. Buchnevich(14)
J. Snuggerud (15)
wristxG 0.06win prob +43 ptsVideo
2-1
16:21
R. Thomas(12)EN
P. Buchnevich (24)
wristxG 0.56win prob +3 ptsVideo
3-1
19:35

Penalties

4 PIM·

2 PIM

1st

18:51Robert Thomas · Cross checkingdrawn by Jared Spurgeon2 min

2nd

15:22Jack Finley · High stickingdrawn by Kirill Kaprizov2 min

3rd

3:12Nico Sturm · Trippingdrawn by Tyler Tucker2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game

Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number

goal

goalFinal: MIN

Biggest swing: Pavel Buchnevich, 3rd 16:21 — STL 48% → 91%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG

1 G · 2.4 xG · 41 att

←

attacks

attacks →

3 G · 2.6 xG · 39 att MIN

1 G · 2.4 xG · 41 att

Tap a shot for who, when and how likely

GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

2.62 G
All situations: 1 G2.4; 1.32 G
Even strength: 0 G1.7; 0.20 G
Power play: 1 G0.7; 0.20 G
Shorthanded: 0 G0.0

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 80 unblocked attempts. Empty-net goals are left out of the goal counts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created

35%65%

Flurry-adjusted xG 1.67 – 2.41

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

24
Shots on goal: 23; 49%
Faceoffs: 51%; 0/1
Power play: 1/2; 4
Penalty minutes: 2; 19
Hits: 13; 6
Blocked shots: 11; 17
Giveaways: 19; 4
Takeaways: 7

Box score

every player line

St. Louis Blues skaters
Skater	G	A	P	+/-	SOG	ixG	Hit	Blk	PIM	FO%	TOI
6P. BrobergD	0	0	0	0	1	0.25	0	1	0	—	25:57
72J. FaulkD	0	0	0	0	1	0.02	2	1	0	—	25:28
23L. MaillouxD	1	0	1	+2	3	0.11	3	1	0	—	20:32
17C. FowlerD	0	0	0	+2	1	0.01	0	0	0	—	18:42
81D. HollowayL	0	0	0	0	2	0.33	2	0	0	—	17:31
18R. ThomasC	1	1	2	+3	3	0.74	0	1	2	57	17:08
89P. BuchnevichL	1	1	2	+2	2	0.27	1	0	0	50	17:07
10B. SchennC	0	1	1	+1	0	0.00	2	0	0	75	16:52
21J. SnuggerudR	0	1	1	+2	2	0.06	2	0	0	—	16:41
22P. SuterC	0	0	0	+1	1	0.03	1	2	0	17	16:30
25J. KyrouR	0	0	0	0	3	0.21	0	0	0	—	16:17
54D. DvorskyR	0	0	0	0	1	0.12	1	0	0	67	15:21
51M. KesselD	0	0	0	+1	1	0.03	1	0	0	—	14:31
63J. NeighboursL	0	0	0	0	1	0.02	2	0	0	—	13:34
75T. TuckerD	0	0	0	+1	1	0.05	0	0	0	—	13:24
70O. SundqvistC	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	1	0	0	50	11:08
13A. ToropchenkoR	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	0	0	0	—	10:52
37J. FinleyC	0	0	0	0	1	0.01	1	0	2	33	09:38

St. Louis Blues goalies
Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	xGA	GSAx	TOI
30J. Hofer(W)	23	22	1	.957	2.41	+1.41	60:00

Season series

STL leads 2-1

Oct 95@0Final
Mar 13@1this game
Apr 133@6Final

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).

St. Louis Blues at Minnesota Wild

2nd period

3rd period

1st

2nd

3rd

Box score