Islanders at Devils 3-1 — Recap, Win Probability & Shot Map

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New York Islanders

▸3

New Jersey Devils

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Recap

written from the game data

The New York Islanders beat the New Jersey Devils 3-1. The Islanders scored first and never trailed. It was tied 1-1 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Bo Horvat's goal at 16:33 of the third period, which took the Islanders' chances from 48% to 91%. Expected goals favored the Islanders, 2.5 to 2.1; shots on goal were NYI 14, NJD 24. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Devils win a replay of these chances 53% of the time. Ilya Sorokin stopped 23 of 24 (.958), 1.1 goals saved above expected; Jake Allen stopped 11 of 13 (.846). Three stars: 1. Bo Horvat (1 G, 1 A), 2. Nico Hischier (1 G), 3. Ilya Sorokin (23 saves, .958).

Three stars

★
B. Horvat1 G, 1 A
★★
N. Hischier1 G
★★★
I. Sorokin23 saves, .958

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath

Goals and shots on goal by period
Team	1st	2nd	3rd	T
NYI	02	15	27	314
NJD	05	113	06	124

Scoring

4 goals

2nd period

C. Cizikas(7)
K. MacLean (4), M. Gatcomb (3)
wristxG 0.27win prob +18 ptsVideo
1-0
6:30
N. Hischier(19)
J. Bratt (28), J. Allen (1)
wristxG 0.08win prob +23 ptsVideo
1-1
18:26

3rd period

B. Horvat(24)
Unassisted
backhandxG 0.19win prob +43 ptsVideo
2-1
16:33
M. Barzal(17)EN
B. Horvat (16)
wristxG 0.64win prob +3 ptsVideo
3-1
19:36

Penalties

2 PIM·

2 PIM

1st

14:04Timo Meier · High stickingdrawn by Scott Mayfield2 min

2nd

7:04Kyle MacLean · High stickingdrawn by Paul Cotter2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game

Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number

goal

goalFinal: NJD

Biggest swing: Bo Horvat, 3rd 16:33 — NYI 48% → 91%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG

1 G · 2.1 xG · 39 att

←

attacks

attacks →

3 G · 2.5 xG · 28 att NJD

1 G · 2.1 xG · 39 att

Tap a shot for who, when and how likely

GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

2.52 G
All situations: 1 G2.1; 1.82 G
Even strength: 1 G1.5; 0.10 G
Power play: 0 G0.5

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 67 unblocked attempts. Empty-net goals are left out of the goal counts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created

47%53%

Flurry-adjusted xG 1.89 – 2.05

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

14
Shots on goal: 24; 67%
Faceoffs: 33%; 0/1
Power play: 0/1; 2
Penalty minutes: 2; 25
Hits: 13; 12
Blocked shots: 14; 16
Giveaways: 23; 5
Takeaways: 5

Box score

every player line

New York Islanders skaters
Skater	G	A	P	+/-	SOG	ixG	Hit	Blk	PIM	FO%	TOI
48M. SchaeferD	0	0	0	+2	0	0.00	0	0	0	—	24:17
3A. PelechD	0	0	0	+1	1	0.04	2	0	0	—	22:31
14B. HorvatC	1	1	2	+1	1	0.19	3	1	0	69	20:50
77T. DeAngeloD	0	0	0	0	0	0.07	0	1	0	—	20:32
6R. PulockD	0	0	0	+1	0	0.02	1	1	0	—	19:40
13M. BarzalC	1	0	1	+1	1	0.64	2	0	0	0	18:44
81O. PalatL	0	0	0	+2	2	0.21	2	3	0	—	17:44
51E. HeinemanL	0	0	0	0	1	0.23	5	0	0	—	16:49
24S. MayfieldD	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	0	1	0	—	16:26
29J. DrouinL	0	0	0	-1	0	0.08	0	0	0	33	16:13
44J. PageauC	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	1	0	0	85	14:44
10S. HolmstromR	0	0	0	0	1	0.13	1	0	0	—	14:39
4C. SoucyD	0	0	0	0	1	0.04	1	2	0	—	14:38
27A. LeeL	0	0	0	0	2	0.20	2	0	0	—	14:32
64C. RitchieC	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	0	2	0	50	13:54
53C. CizikasC	1	0	1	+1	2	0.60	0	1	0	75	12:05
32K. MacLeanC	0	1	1	+1	1	0.04	3	0	2	67	10:22
16M. GatcombC	0	1	1	+1	1	0.05	2	0	0	0	09:20

New York Islanders goalies
Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	xGA	GSAx	TOI
30I. Sorokin(W)	24	23	1	.958	2.07	+1.07	60:00

Season series

NYI leads 4-0

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).

New York Islanders at New Jersey Devils

2nd period

3rd period

1st

2nd

Box score