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Senators at Hurricanes
NHL

Ottawa Senators at Carolina Hurricanes

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Ottawa Senators
3
Carolina Hurricanes
▸4
FinalTV FDSNSO, TSN5·Lenovo Center

Recap

written from the game data

The Carolina Hurricanes beat the Ottawa Senators 4-3. The lead changed hands 2 times. The Hurricanes led 3-2 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Jordan Staal's goal at 14:53 of the third period, which took the Hurricanes' chances from 52% to 90%. Expected goals favored the Senators, 3.0 to 2.2; shots on goal were OTT 27, CAR 19. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Senators win a replay of these chances 69% of the time. James Reimer stopped 15 of 19 (.789), 2.1 goals below expected; Brandon Bussi stopped 24 of 27 (.889). Three stars: 1. Seth Jarvis (2 G), 2. Sebastian Aho (1 G, 2 A), 3. Jordan Staal (1 G).

Three stars

  1. ★
    CAR
    S. Jarvis2 G
  2. ★★
    CAR
    S. Aho1 G, 2 A
  3. ★★★
    CAR
    J. Staal1 G

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdT
OTTOTT11111016327
CARCAR192812419

Scoring

7 goals

1st period

  1. OTT
    S. Halliday(4)
    J. Spence (15), L. Eller (7)
    tip-inxG 0.12win prob +12 ptsVideo
    1-0
    2:46
  2. CAR
    S. Aho(20)
    K. Miller (19)
    wristxG 0.15win prob +15 ptsVideo
    1-1
    17:49

2nd period

  1. CAR
    S. Jarvis(24)PPG
    A. Svechnikov (28), S. Aho (36)
    slapxG 0.10win prob +14 ptsVideo
    1-2
    12:39
  2. CAR
    S. Jarvis(25)
    S. Aho (37)
    wristxG 0.15win prob +16 ptsVideo
    1-3
    15:41
  3. OTT
    T. Stützle(27)PPG
    J. Sanderson (35), D. Cozens (24)
    slapxG 0.07win prob +12 ptsVideo
    2-3
    16:21

3rd period

  1. OTT
    J. Sanderson(11)PPG
    D. Batherson (30), D. Cozens (25)
    slapxG 0.04win prob +20 ptsVideo
    3-3
    4:57
  2. CAR
    J. Staal(14)
    N. Ehlers (28)
    snapxG 0.10win prob +38 ptsVideo
    3-4
    14:53

Penalties

OTT 4 PIM·CAR 6 PIM

1st

  • 4:58OTTFabian Zetterlund · High stickingdrawn by K'Andre Miller2 min

2nd

  • 8:41CARAndrei Svechnikov · Hookingdrawn by Tim Stützle2 min
  • 12:33OTTStephen Halliday · Broken stick2 min
  • 15:47CARWilliam Carrier · Interferencedrawn by Claude Giroux2 min

3rd

  • 4:05CARMark Jankowski · High stickingdrawn by Michael Amadio2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
CAR goalOTT goalFinal: CAR 100%

Biggest swing: Jordan Staal, 3rd 14:53 — CAR 52% → 90%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
J. Slavin · Missed · xG 0.28T. Hall · On goal · xG 0.18S. Jarvis · On goal · xG 0.18J. Kotkaniemi · Missed · xG 0.15S. Aho · Goal · xG 0.15S. Jarvis · Goal · xG 0.15J. Blake · On goal · xG 0.14J. Blake · Missed · xG 0.10J. Staal · Goal · xG 0.10S. Jarvis · Goal · xG 0.10J. Martinook · Missed · xG 0.08S. Jarvis · On goal · xG 0.06L. Stankoven · Missed · xG 0.06T. Hall · On goal · xG 0.06J. Slavin · On goal · xG 0.05S. Jarvis · Missed · xG 0.05T. Hall · On goal · xG 0.04L. Stankoven · Missed · xG 0.04S. Gostisbehere · On goal · xG 0.04A. Svechnikov · Missed · xG 0.04K. Miller · Missed · xG 0.03S. Gostisbehere · On goal · xG 0.02J. Blake · Missed · xG 0.02S. Walker · On goal · xG 0.02A. Nikishin · Missed · xG 0.01J. Chatfield · On goal · xG 0.01J. Staal · Missed · xG 0.01J. Chatfield · Missed · xG 0.00S. Aho · On goal · xG 0.00K. Miller · On goal · xG 0.00A. Svechnikov · On goal · xG 0.00J. Slavin · On goal · xG 0.00
CAR4 G · 2.2 xG · 32 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

OTTvsCAR
3.03 G
All situations
4 G2.2
2.71 G
Even strength
3 G1.7
0.32 G
Power play
1 G0.2

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 77 unblocked attempts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
OTT69%31%CAR

Flurry-adjusted xG 2.90 – 1.83

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

OTTvsCAR
27
Shots on goal
19
50%
Faceoffs
50%
2/3
Power play
1/2
4
Penalty minutes
6
20
Hits
27
16
Blocked shots
9
16
Giveaways
11
7
Takeaways
5

Box score

every player line
Ottawa Senators skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
85J. SandersonD112-320.13000—23:15
72T. ChabotD000010.01130—21:57
2A. ZubD000-310.04010—19:55
24D. CozensC022010.213005019:16
12S. PintoC000020.134104118:58
22M. AmadioR000020.44010—18:43
18T. StützleC101-330.230105018:35
19D. BathersonR011-230.41100—18:29
7B. TkachukL000-140.222105818:28
3N. JensenD000000.05010—17:43
43T. KlevenD000+110.08220—16:28
10J. SpenceD011+110.12010—16:27
71R. GreigC000-100.00010016:04
21N. CousinsC000030.50220014:58
28C. GirouxR000-100.000005013:25
20F. ZetterlundL000010.28212—10:26
89L. EllerC011+110.020006708:57
83S. HallidayC101+110.12302007:12
Ottawa Senators goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
47J. Reimer(L)19154.7891.90-2.1058:38

Season series

CAR leads 2-1

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).