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Canadiens at Sabres
NHL

Montréal Canadiens at Buffalo Sabres

NHL scoreboard
Montréal Canadiens
▸4
Buffalo Sabres
2
FinalTV NHLN, MSG-B·KeyBank Center

Recap

written from the game data

The Montréal Canadiens beat the Buffalo Sabres 4-2. The lead changed hands 2 times. The Sabres led 2-1 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Cole Caufield's goal at 10:13 of the third period, which took the Canadiens' chances from 48% to 81%. Expected goals were close — MTL 4.6, BUF 4.4; shots on goal were MTL 31, BUF 38. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Sabres win a replay of these chances 71% of the time. Jakub Dobes stopped 36 of 38 (.947), 2.5 goals saved above expected; Alex Lyon stopped 27 of 30 (.900). Three stars: 1. Cole Caufield (2 G, 1 A), 2. Jakub Dobes (36 saves, .947), 3. Owen Power (1 G).

Three stars

  1. ★
    MTL
    C. Caufield2 G, 1 A
  2. ★★
    MTL
    J. Dobes36 saves, .947
  3. ★★★
    BUF
    O. Power1 G

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdT
MTLMTL11106314431
BUFBUF011212015238

Scoring

6 goals

1st period

  1. MTL
    J. Slafkovský(21)PPG
    N. Suzuki (45), C. Caufield (25)
    wristxG 0.11win prob +11 ptsVideo
    1-0
    11:20

2nd period

  1. BUF
    O. Power(4)
    T. Thompson (28), R. Dahlin (33)
    wristxG 0.04win prob +18 ptsVideo
    1-1
    7:36
  2. BUF
    N. Ostlund(10)PPG
    A. Tuch (25), B. Byram (17)
    slapxG 0.14win prob +20 ptsVideo
    1-2
    18:58

3rd period

  1. MTL
    C. Caufield(31)
    N. Dobson (24), L. Hutson (47)
    tip-inxG 0.08win prob +26 ptsVideo
    2-2
    4:14
  2. MTL
    C. Caufield(32)
    N. Suzuki (46), K. Dach (4)
    snapxG 0.24win prob +33 ptsVideo
    3-2
    10:13
  3. MTL
    O. Kapanen(17)EN
    N. Dobson (25)
    wristxG 0.50win prob +3 ptsVideo
    4-2
    19:12

Penalties

MTL 8 PIM·BUF 6 PIM

1st

  • 10:00BUFTage Thompson · Interferencedrawn by Phillip Danault2 min
  • 19:06BUFBowen Byram · Trippingdrawn by Nick Suzuki2 min

2nd

  • 0:58MTLLane Hutson · Trippingdrawn by Ryan McLeod2 min
  • 2:46BUFRyan McLeod · Hookingdrawn by Kaiden Guhle2 min
  • 14:21MTLNoah Dobson · High stickingdrawn by Jason Zucker2 min
  • 16:58MTLLane Hutson · High stickingdrawn by Alex Tuch2 min

3rd

  • 16:24MTLKirby Dach · Holdingdrawn by Bowen Byram2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
BUF goalMTL goalFinal: BUF 0%

Biggest swing: Cole Caufield, 3rd 10:13 — MTL 48% → 81%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
J. Doan · On goal · xG 0.30J. Doan · On goal · xG 0.22A. Tuch · Missed · xG 0.22M. Samuelsson · On goal · xG 0.20A. Tuch · On goal · xG 0.20Z. Benson · On goal · xG 0.20B. Byram · Missed · xG 0.19J. Doan · Missed · xG 0.17J. Zucker · On goal · xG 0.16O. Power · On goal · xG 0.15N. Ostlund · Goal · xG 0.14R. McLeod · On goal · xG 0.14J. Doan · On goal · xG 0.13P. Krebs · Missed · xG 0.12J. Doan · Missed · xG 0.11A. Tuch · Missed · xG 0.11T. Thompson · On goal · xG 0.10J. Zucker · On goal · xG 0.10J. Quinn · On goal · xG 0.09T. Thompson · Missed · xG 0.09O. Power · On goal · xG 0.08J. Quinn · Missed · xG 0.08K. Helenius · Missed · xG 0.08R. Dahlin · On goal · xG 0.08J. Zucker · On goal · xG 0.06Z. Benson · On goal · xG 0.06T. Thompson · On goal · xG 0.06R. Dahlin · Missed · xG 0.06J. Zucker · On goal · xG 0.05T. Thompson · Missed · xG 0.05J. Zucker · Missed · xG 0.05J. Quinn · Missed · xG 0.05O. Power · Goal · xG 0.04O. Power · On goal · xG 0.04T. Thompson · On goal · xG 0.04J. Quinn · On goal · xG 0.04A. Tuch · Missed · xG 0.04T. Thompson · Missed · xG 0.04B. Byram · Missed · xG 0.03R. Dahlin · On goal · xG 0.03R. McLeod · On goal · xG 0.02B. Malenstyn · On goal · xG 0.02A. Tuch · Missed · xG 0.02R. Dahlin · On goal · xG 0.02O. Power · On goal · xG 0.02O. Power · On goal · xG 0.02J. Quinn · Missed · xG 0.02M. Samuelsson · On goal · xG 0.01T. Thompson · On goal · xG 0.01T. Thompson · On goal · xG 0.01R. Dahlin · On goal · xG 0.01J. Quinn · On goal · xG 0.01K. Helenius · On goal · xG 0.01K. Helenius · On goal · xG 0.01B. Byram · On goal · xG 0.00K. Helenius · On goal · xG 0.00
BUF2 G · 4.4 xG · 56 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

MTLvsBUF
4.63 G
All situations
2 G4.4
2.72 G
Even strength
1 G3.5
0.51 G
Power play
1 G0.9

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 98 unblocked attempts. Empty-net goals are left out of the goal counts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
MTL29%71%BUF

Flurry-adjusted xG 2.93 – 4.30

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

MTLvsBUF
31
Shots on goal
38
70%
Faceoffs
30%
1/3
Power play
1/4
8
Penalty minutes
6
29
Hits
24
20
Blocked shots
7
13
Giveaways
16
5
Takeaways
4

Box score

every player line
Montréal Canadiens skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
8M. MathesonD000-120.48040—27:33
53N. DobsonD022+340.21222—20:32
45A. CarrierD000-110.00110—20:28
48L. HutsonD011+120.85014—20:10
21K. GuhleD000+200.01340—19:29
14N. SuzukiC022+320.030105718:52
24P. DanaultC000010.401107918:13
91O. KapanenC101+120.511206717:28
20J. SlafkovskýL101+170.8720010017:26
93I. DemidovR000030.39000—16:49
71J. EvansC000-110.160108216:33
13C. CaufieldR213+250.49310—15:39
77K. DachC011+210.07212012:29
17J. AndersonR000000.00300—12:11
90J. VelenoC000-100.002105010:33
11B. GallagherR000000.00500—10:18
76Z. BolducR000-100.08100—10:10
72A. XhekajD000000.00300—07:09
Montréal Canadiens goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
75J. Dobes(W)38362.9474.45+2.4559:58

Season series

Tied 2-2

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).