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Canadiens at Sabres
NHL

Montréal Canadiens at Buffalo Sabres

NHL scoreboard
Montréal Canadiens
3
Buffalo Sabres
▸5
FinalTV MSG-B, TSN2·KeyBank Center

Recap

written from the game data

The Buffalo Sabres beat the Montréal Canadiens 5-3. The lead changed hands 3 times. It was tied 3-3 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Tage Thompson's goal at 5:12 of the third period, which took the Sabres' chances from 52% to 79%. Expected goals favored the Sabres, 3.2 to 2.8; shots on goal were MTL 23, BUF 27. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Canadiens win a replay of these chances 58% of the time. Jacob Fowler stopped 22 of 26 (.846), 1.7 goals below expected; Colten Ellis stopped 20 of 23 (.870). Three stars: 1. Tage Thompson (3 G, 2 A), 2. Josh Doan (1 G, 1 A), 3. Alex Tuch (1 G).

Three stars

  1. ★
    BUF
    T. Thompson3 G, 2 A
  2. ★★
    BUF
    J. Doan1 G, 1 A
  3. ★★★
    BUF
    A. Tuch1 G

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdT
MTLMTL271808323
BUFBUF21211025527

Scoring

8 goals

1st period

  1. MTL
    C. Caufield(22)
    N. Dobson (21)
    wristxG 0.16win prob +12 ptsVideo
    1-0
    3:11
  2. BUF
    T. Thompson(23)PPG
    N. Ostlund (7), J. Zucker (11)
    snapxG 0.14win prob +8 ptsVideo
    1-1
    4:05
  3. BUF
    J. Doan(15)PPG
    T. Thompson (23), N. Ostlund (8)
    wristxG 0.11win prob +10 ptsVideo
    1-2
    10:30
  4. MTL
    I. Demidov(11)PPG
    L. Hutson (38), N. Suzuki (37)
    slapxG 0.16win prob +13 ptsVideo
    2-2
    14:20

2nd period

  1. MTL
    N. Suzuki(15)PPG
    L. Hutson (39), C. Caufield (23)
    snapxG 0.27win prob +13 ptsVideo
    3-2
    3:05
  2. BUF
    A. Tuch(16)
    T. Thompson (24), R. Dahlin (27)
    snapxG 0.11win prob +18 ptsVideo
    3-3
    8:55

3rd period

  1. BUF
    T. Thompson(24)
    J. Doan (19)
    snapxG 0.16win prob +27 ptsVideo
    3-4
    5:12
  2. BUF
    T. Thompson(25)EN
    Z. Benson (17)
    wristxG 0.91win prob +4 ptsVideo
    3-5
    18:20

Penalties

MTL 12 PIM·BUF 10 PIM

1st

  • 3:46MTLLane Hutson · High stickingdrawn by Beck Malenstyn2 min
  • 9:21MTLKaiden Guhle · Interferencedrawn by Josh Doan2 min
  • 12:50BUFZach Benson · Slashingdrawn by Brendan Gallagher2 min
  • 13:46BUFBowen Byram · High stickingdrawn by Lane Hutson2 min

2nd

  • 2:32BUFJacob Bryson · Holdingdrawn by Zachary Bolduc2 min
  • 10:20BUFBowen Byram · Roughingdrawn by Mike Matheson2 min
  • 10:20MTLMike Matheson · Roughingdrawn by Bowen Byram2 min

3rd

  • 0:37MTLPhillip Danault · Trippingdrawn by Jack Quinn2 min
  • 7:08BUFJordan Greenway · Roughingdrawn by Brendan Gallagher2 min
  • 7:08MTLBrendan Gallagher · Roughingdrawn by Jordan Greenway2 min
  • 8:39MTLOliver Kapanen · Trippingdrawn by Tage Thompson2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
BUF goalMTL goalFinal: BUF 100%

Biggest swing: Tage Thompson, 3rd 5:12 — BUF 52% → 79%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
T. Thompson · Goal · xG 0.91R. Dahlin · Missed · xG 0.16T. Thompson · Goal · xG 0.16R. McLeod · On goal · xG 0.15T. Thompson · Goal · xG 0.14T. Thompson · Missed · xG 0.13A. Tuch · Missed · xG 0.13T. Thompson · Missed · xG 0.12B. Malenstyn · On goal · xG 0.12P. Krebs · Missed · xG 0.12A. Tuch · Goal · xG 0.11J. Doan · Goal · xG 0.11Z. Benson · On goal · xG 0.10M. Samuelsson · On goal · xG 0.10N. Ostlund · On goal · xG 0.10N. Ostlund · On goal · xG 0.09R. Dahlin · On goal · xG 0.08M. Samuelsson · Missed · xG 0.05N. Ostlund · Missed · xG 0.05T. Thompson · Missed · xG 0.05B. Malenstyn · On goal · xG 0.04J. Quinn · On goal · xG 0.04R. Dahlin · On goal · xG 0.03O. Power · On goal · xG 0.03R. Dahlin · Missed · xG 0.02T. Kozak · On goal · xG 0.01O. Power · Missed · xG 0.01O. Power · On goal · xG 0.01M. Samuelsson · On goal · xG 0.01J. Doan · Missed · xG 0.01B. Byram · On goal · xG 0.01Z. Benson · On goal · xG 0.01M. Samuelsson · On goal · xG 0.00O. Power · On goal · xG 0.00J. Bryson · Missed · xG 0.00N. Ostlund · On goal · xG 0.00M. Samuelsson · On goal · xG 0.00T. Kozak · On goal · xG 0.00Z. Metsa · On goal · xG 0.00
BUF5 G · 3.2 xG · 39 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

MTLvsBUF
2.83 G
All situations
4 G3.2
2.21 G
Even strength
2 G1.6
0.62 G
Power play
2 G0.7

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 75 unblocked attempts. Empty-net goals are left out of the goal counts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
MTL58%42%BUF

Flurry-adjusted xG 2.76 – 2.31

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

MTLvsBUF
23
Shots on goal
27
59%
Faceoffs
41%
2/3
Power play
2/4
12
Penalty minutes
10
26
Hits
21
18
Blocked shots
6
14
Giveaways
15
4
Takeaways
6

Box score

every player line
Montréal Canadiens skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
48L. HutsonD022-110.11022—25:55
8M. MathesonD000000.06102—22:32
14N. SuzukiC112-120.390006422:17
53N. DobsonD011-100.01040—21:39
45A. CarrierD000-100.03040—21:00
13C. CaufieldR112-150.4800010019:17
20J. SlafkovskýL000-110.11120—18:14
93I. DemidovR101-130.30000—16:10
91O. KapanenC000030.270125316:02
24P. DanaultC000-200.003224514:58
21K. GuhleD000000.03112—14:56
85A. TexierL000030.39100—13:45
17J. AndersonR000-100.12100—13:27
76Z. BolducR000-100.1150010012:04
90J. VelenoC000000.003108011:12
11B. GallagherR000030.23002—10:58
72A. XhekajD000000.00600—10:29
27S. BlaisL000020.19410—07:29
Montréal Canadiens goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
32J. Fowler(L)26224.8462.31-1.6958:08

Season series

Tied 2-2

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).