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Predators at Golden Knights
NHL

Nashville Predators at Vegas Golden Knights

NHL scoreboard
Nashville Predators
2
Vegas Golden Knights
▸7
FinalTV FDSNSO, SCRIPPS·T-Mobile Arena

Recap

written from the game data

The Vegas Golden Knights beat the Nashville Predators 7-2. The Predators scored first; the Golden Knights answered. The Golden Knights led 2-1 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Shea Theodore's goal at 18:22 of the second period, which took the Golden Knights' chances from 53% to 75%. Expected goals favored the Golden Knights, 3.4 to 2.3; shots on goal were NSH 29, VGK 36. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Golden Knights win a replay of these chances 69% of the time. Justus Annunen stopped 29 of 36 (.806), 3.6 goals below expected; Akira Schmid stopped 27 of 29 (.931). Three stars: 1. Shea Theodore (1 G, 1 A), 2. Mitch Marner (1 G, 1 A), 3. Akira Schmid (27 saves, .931).

Three stars

  1. ★
    VGK
    S. Theodore1 G, 1 A
  2. ★★
    VGK
    M. Marner1 G, 1 A
  3. ★★★
    VGK
    A. Schmid27 saves, .931

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdT
NSHNSH1901119229
VGKVGK015210511736

Scoring

9 goals

1st period

  1. NSH
    L. Evangelista(7)
    R. Josi (19)
    deflectedxG 0.18win prob +14 ptsVideo
    1-0
    14:10

2nd period

  1. VGK
    A. Holtz(2)
    S. Theodore (18), C. Reinhardt (4)
    slapxG 0.03win prob +22 ptsVideo
    1-1
    17:17
  2. VGK
    S. Theodore(7)
    J. Lauzon (8), K. Kolesar (8)
    snapxG 0.04win prob +22 ptsVideo
    1-2
    18:22

3rd period

  1. VGK
    P. Dorofeyev(20)
    M. Marner (39)
    snapxG 0.15win prob +15 ptsVideo
    1-3
    5:52
  2. VGK
    M. Stone(18)
    J. Eichel (39), Z. Whitecloud (5)
    wristxG 0.18win prob +5 ptsVideo
    1-4
    8:52
  3. VGK
    C. Reinhardt(2)
    A. Holtz (3), T. Laczynski (1)
    wristxG 0.11Video
    1-5
    12:26
  4. VGK
    M. Marner(12)
    R. Smith (6), A. Schmid (1)
    snapxG 0.09Video
    1-6
    13:16
  5. VGK
    K. Kolesar(3)
    T. Hertl (23), B. Bowman (11)
    backhandxG 0.20Video
    1-7
    15:12
  6. NSH
    F. Forsberg(18)PPG
    R. O'Reilly (28), R. Josi (20)
    wristxG 0.07Video
    2-7
    19:38

Penalties

NSH 4 PIM·VGK 8 PIM

1st

  • 16:01NSHReid Schaefer · Trippingdrawn by Tomas Hertl2 min

2nd

  • 9:39VGKMitch Marner · Hookingdrawn by Roman Josi2 min
  • 18:22NSHMichael Bunting · Roughingdrawn by Tomas Hertl2 min
  • 18:22VGKTomas Hertl · Roughingdrawn by Michael Bunting2 min

3rd

  • 6:31VGKJack Eichel · Interferencedrawn by Filip Forsberg2 min
  • 18:12VGKBen Hutton · Trippingdrawn by Tyson Jost2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
VGK goalNSH goalFinal: VGK 100%

Biggest swing: Shea Theodore, 2nd 18:22 — VGK 53% → 75%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
K. Kolesar · Goal · xG 0.20C. Reinhardt · On goal · xG 0.19M. Stone · Goal · xG 0.18S. Theodore · Missed · xG 0.18P. Dorofeyev · On goal · xG 0.18N. Hanifin · On goal · xG 0.16S. Theodore · On goal · xG 0.15P. Dorofeyev · Goal · xG 0.15M. Marner · On goal · xG 0.12J. Eichel · On goal · xG 0.11C. Reinhardt · Goal · xG 0.11P. Dorofeyev · On goal · xG 0.11S. Theodore · On goal · xG 0.10M. Marner · Goal · xG 0.09T. Hertl · On goal · xG 0.09J. Eichel · On goal · xG 0.09Z. Whitecloud · Missed · xG 0.08Z. Whitecloud · On goal · xG 0.08J. Eichel · On goal · xG 0.08M. Stone · Missed · xG 0.07R. Smith · On goal · xG 0.07J. Eichel · Missed · xG 0.07J. Eichel · On goal · xG 0.06K. Kolesar · Missed · xG 0.06T. Laczynski · On goal · xG 0.06J. Lauzon · On goal · xG 0.06K. Kolesar · Missed · xG 0.06P. Dorofeyev · On goal · xG 0.05I. Barbashev · On goal · xG 0.05C. Reinhardt · On goal · xG 0.05J. Eichel · Missed · xG 0.04S. Theodore · Goal · xG 0.04J. Eichel · On goal · xG 0.04A. Holtz · Goal · xG 0.03M. Marner · On goal · xG 0.03P. Dorofeyev · On goal · xG 0.02K. Korczak · On goal · xG 0.02J. Eichel · On goal · xG 0.02R. Smith · On goal · xG 0.02R. Smith · Missed · xG 0.02K. Korczak · On goal · xG 0.02J. Eichel · On goal · xG 0.01J. Eichel · Missed · xG 0.01M. Stone · On goal · xG 0.01S. Theodore · Missed · xG 0.00J. Eichel · On goal · xG 0.00
VGK7 G · 3.4 xG · 46 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

NSHvsVGK
2.32 G
All situations
7 G3.4
1.71 G
Even strength
7 G2.8
0.51 G
Power play
0 G0.4
0.00 G
Shorthanded
0 G0.2

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 90 unblocked attempts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
NSH31%69%VGK

Flurry-adjusted xG 2.28 – 3.39

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

NSHvsVGK
29
Shots on goal
36
52%
Faceoffs
48%
1/3
Power play
0/1
4
Penalty minutes
8
14
Hits
25
16
Blocked shots
16
16
Giveaways
20
7
Takeaways
4

Box score

every player line
Nashville Predators skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
59R. JosiD022-130.23110—23:26
76B. SkjeiD000-110.01010—21:37
41N. HagueD000-230.08100—20:05
90R. O'ReillyC011+100.000204219:36
9F. ForsbergL101+140.24000—19:08
48N. PerbixD000-200.00010—18:16
77L. EvangelistaR101+120.32000—17:55
91S. StamkosC000-320.162006017:41
37N. BlankenburgD000-300.01120—17:38
56E. HaulaL000-310.022205616:27
58M. BuntingL000-360.39002—15:29
36C. SmithR000-220.20000—13:49
20J. BarronD000-200.00100—13:43
81J. MarchessaultR000-310.09000—13:38
47M. McCarronC000-230.214104512:41
40F. SvechkovC000-200.280408212:25
17T. JostC000-210.02000011:17
49R. SchaeferL000-200.02222—11:17
Nashville Predators goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
29J. Annunen(L)36297.8063.40-3.6059:52

Season series

NSH leads 2-1

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).