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Predators at Golden Knights
NHL

Nashville Predators at Vegas Golden Knights

NHL scoreboard
Nashville Predators
▸4
Vegas Golden Knights
2
FinalTV FDSNSO, SCRIPPS·T-Mobile Arena

Recap

written from the game data

The Nashville Predators beat the Vegas Golden Knights 4-2. The Predators came back from two goals down. The Predators led 4-2 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Michael Bunting's goal at 11:52 of the second period, which took the Predators' chances from 66% to 84%. Expected goals favored the Golden Knights, 3.0 to 2.3; shots on goal were NSH 19, VGK 31. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Golden Knights win a replay of these chances 66% of the time. Justus Annunen stopped 29 of 31 (.935), 1.0 goals saved above expected; Akira Schmid stopped 15 of 19 (.789), 1.9 goals below expected. Three stars: 1. Steven Stamkos (1 G), 2. Justus Annunen (29 saves, .935), 3. Reid Schaefer (1 G).

Three stars

  1. ★
    NSH
    S. Stamkos1 G
  2. ★★
    NSH
    J. Annunen29 saves, .935
  3. ★★★
    NSH
    R. Schaefer1 G

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdT
NSHNSH3101603419
VGKVGK2904018231

Scoring

6 goals

1st period

  1. VGK
    M. Stone(10)PPG
    P. Dorofeyev (12), N. Hanifin (12)
    tip-inxG 0.25win prob +8 ptsVideo
    0-1
    5:35
  2. VGK
    B. Hutton(6)
    T. Hertl (15), P. Dorofeyev (13)
    tip-inxG 0.08win prob +14 ptsVideo
    0-2
    9:06
  3. NSH
    N. Perbix(3)
    L. Evangelista (22)
    wristxG 0.03win prob +14 ptsVideo
    1-2
    11:20
  4. NSH
    S. Stamkos(18)PPG
    F. Forsberg (15), L. Evangelista (23)
    wristxG 0.09win prob +11 ptsVideo
    2-2
    15:37
  5. NSH
    R. Schaefer(4)
    B. Skjei (12), M. McCarron (6)
    snapxG 0.01win prob +15 ptsVideo
    3-2
    16:21

2nd period

  1. NSH
    M. Bunting(10)PPG
    N. Blankenburg (13), E. Haula (16)
    tip-inxG 0.10win prob +18 ptsVideo
    4-2
    11:52

Penalties

NSH 6 PIM·VGK 18 PIM

1st

  • 5:24NSHErik Haula · High stickingdrawn by Ben Hutton2 min
  • 14:16VGKBrett Howden · Hookingdrawn by Fedor Svechkov2 min

2nd

  • 1:39NSHNicolas Hague · Cross checkingdrawn by Ivan Barbashev2 min
  • 3:35VGKAlexander Holtz · Slashingdrawn by Roman Josi2 min
  • 8:18VGKKeegan Kolesar · Cross checkingdrawn by Michael Bunting2 min
  • 8:18VGKKeegan Kolesar · Roughingdrawn by Michael Bunting2 min
  • 8:18VGKKeegan Kolesar · Misconduct10 min

3rd

  • 7:31VGKBen Hutton · Ps slash on breakawaydrawn by Cole Smith0 min
  • 13:33NSHMichael McCarron · Interferencedrawn by Colton Sissons2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
VGK goalNSH goalFinal: VGK 0%

Biggest swing: Michael Bunting, 2nd 11:52 — NSH 66% → 84%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
B. Saad · On goal · xG 0.27N. Hanifin · On goal · xG 0.25M. Stone · Goal · xG 0.25P. Dorofeyev · Missed · xG 0.18M. Stone · On goal · xG 0.15B. Saad · On goal · xG 0.13P. Dorofeyev · On goal · xG 0.12K. Kolesar · On goal · xG 0.11B. Bowman · On goal · xG 0.09R. Smith · Missed · xG 0.09P. Dorofeyev · On goal · xG 0.09T. Hertl · Missed · xG 0.09I. Barbashev · On goal · xG 0.09B. Hutton · Goal · xG 0.08T. Hertl · On goal · xG 0.07B. Saad · On goal · xG 0.06B. Bowman · Missed · xG 0.06B. Saad · On goal · xG 0.06N. Hanifin · On goal · xG 0.06M. Marner · Missed · xG 0.06B. Saad · On goal · xG 0.05P. Dorofeyev · Missed · xG 0.05M. Stone · Missed · xG 0.05P. Dorofeyev · Missed · xG 0.05B. Bowman · Missed · xG 0.04N. Hanifin · On goal · xG 0.04R. Smith · Missed · xG 0.04C. Sissons · On goal · xG 0.04I. Barbashev · Missed · xG 0.03N. Hanifin · Missed · xG 0.03K. Korczak · On goal · xG 0.03N. Hanifin · On goal · xG 0.02T. Hertl · On goal · xG 0.02R. Smith · Missed · xG 0.02M. Marner · On goal · xG 0.01N. Hanifin · On goal · xG 0.01N. Hanifin · Missed · xG 0.01C. Sissons · On goal · xG 0.01M. Marner · On goal · xG 0.01P. Dorofeyev · On goal · xG 0.01I. Barbashev · Missed · xG 0.01J. Lauzon · On goal · xG 0.01K. Korczak · On goal · xG 0.01M. Marner · On goal · xG 0.01K. Korczak · Missed · xG 0.01P. Dorofeyev · Missed · xG 0.00B. Hutton · On goal · xG 0.00B. Hutton · On goal · xG 0.00
VGK2 G · 3.0 xG · 48 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

NSHvsVGK
2.34 G
All situations
2 G3.0
0.92 G
Even strength
1 G1.5
1.12 G
Power play
1 G1.4
0.00 G
Shorthanded
0 G0.1

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 83 unblocked attempts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
NSH34%66%VGK

Flurry-adjusted xG 2.05 – 2.93

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

NSHvsVGK
19
Shots on goal
31
52%
Faceoffs
48%
2/4
Power play
1/3
6
Penalty minutes
18
26
Hits
26
18
Blocked shots
11
12
Giveaways
17
7
Takeaways
4

Box score

every player line
Nashville Predators skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
76B. SkjeiD011+100.02020—24:08
90R. O'ReillyC000010.120205023:13
59R. JosiD000020.05040—20:31
9F. ForsbergL011020.28200—19:56
48N. PerbixD101020.09150—19:45
91S. StamkosC101010.430007519:32
37N. BlankenburgD011000.00010—18:17
56E. HaulaL011+110.192025618:16
41N. HagueD000000.00112—17:34
77L. EvangelistaR022+120.14000—17:19
83A. WilsbyD000+110.04010—17:00
36C. SmithR000+100.23810—15:51
58M. BuntingL101+120.13100—14:21
47M. McCarronC011+110.306025312:44
49R. SchaeferL101+120.06310—10:33
71M. WoodR000-100.00000—09:22
17T. JostC000-110.08100009:03
40F. SvechkovC000-110.151004008:24
Nashville Predators goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
29J. Annunen(W)31292.9352.96+0.9660:00

Season series

NSH leads 2-1

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).