Skip to content
Predators at Avalanche
NHL

Nashville Predators at Colorado Avalanche

NHL scoreboard
Nashville Predators
▸7
Colorado Avalanche
3
FinalTV FDSNSO, ALT·Ball Arena

Recap

written from the game data

The Nashville Predators beat the Colorado Avalanche 7-3. The Predators scored first and never trailed. The Predators led 4-2 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Ryan O'Reilly's goal at 13:01 of the second period, which took the Predators' chances from 47% to 67%. Expected goals favored the Predators, 3.9 to 2.6; shots on goal were NSH 30, COL 43. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Avalanche win a replay of these chances 61% of the time. Juuse Saros stopped 40 of 43 (.930); Mackenzie Blackwood stopped 23 of 28 (.821), 3.0 goals below expected. Three stars: 1. Ryan O'Reilly (3 G, 1 A), 2. Filip Forsberg (1 G, 2 A), 3. Juuse Saros (40 saves, .930).

Three stars

  1. ★
    NSH
    R. O'Reilly3 G, 1 A
  2. ★★
    NSH
    F. Forsberg1 G, 2 A
  3. ★★★
    NSH
    J. Saros40 saves, .930

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdT
NSHNSH21121138730
COLCOL217016110343

Scoring

10 goals

1st period

  1. NSH
    R. O'Reilly(14)
    F. Forsberg (17)
    backhandxG 0.39win prob +11 ptsVideo
    1-0
    0:30
  2. COL
    B. Nelson(23)
    B. Burns (16), V. Nichushkin (16)
    backhandxG 0.34win prob +11 ptsVideo
    1-1
    1:24
  3. NSH
    R. O'Reilly(15)
    L. Evangelista (26), F. Forsberg (18)
    wristxG 0.04win prob +13 ptsVideo
    2-1
    7:32
  4. COL
    B. Nelson(24)
    J. Manson (16), S. Malinski (21)
    wristxG 0.16win prob +13 ptsVideo
    2-2
    11:16

2nd period

  1. NSH
    R. O'Reilly(16)
    L. Evangelista (27), R. Josi (16)
    wristxG 0.11win prob +20 ptsVideo
    3-2
    13:01
  2. NSH
    M. Bunting(12)
    S. Stamkos (12)
    wristxG 0.06win prob +18 ptsVideo
    4-2
    18:04

3rd period

  1. COL
    M. Necas(22)
    N. MacKinnon (46), A. Lehkonen (20)
    snapxG 0.10win prob +17 ptsVideo
    4-3
    1:09
  2. NSH
    F. Forsberg(17)PPG
    R. O'Reilly (27), R. Josi (17)
    wristxG 0.06win prob +8 ptsVideo
    5-3
    15:13
  3. NSH
    S. Stamkos(21)EN
    M. Bunting (16), R. Josi (18)
    wristxG 0.53win prob +1 ptsVideo
    6-3
    17:04
  4. NSH
    M. McCarron(2)EN
    Unassisted
    wristxG 0.89Video
    7-3
    17:41

Penalties

NSH 4 PIM·COL 2 PIM

2nd

  • 13:22NSHErik Haula · Interferencedrawn by Ross Colton2 min

3rd

  • 13:55COLZakhar Bardakov · Interferencedrawn by Erik Haula2 min
  • 17:31NSHCole Smith · Slashingdrawn by Zakhar Bardakov2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
COL goalNSH goalFinal: COL 0%

Biggest swing: Ryan O'Reilly, 2nd 13:01 — NSH 47% → 67%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
B. Nelson · Goal · xG 0.34V. Olofsson · On goal · xG 0.17A. Lehkonen · On goal · xG 0.16B. Nelson · Goal · xG 0.16J. Drury · On goal · xG 0.13G. Brindley · On goal · xG 0.12N. MacKinnon · On goal · xG 0.11N. MacKinnon · On goal · xG 0.10P. Kelly · Missed · xG 0.10M. Necas · Goal · xG 0.10B. Nelson · On goal · xG 0.07S. Malinski · On goal · xG 0.07A. Lehkonen · On goal · xG 0.06A. Lehkonen · On goal · xG 0.06V. Nichushkin · On goal · xG 0.06M. Necas · On goal · xG 0.05A. Lehkonen · On goal · xG 0.05R. Colton · Missed · xG 0.05S. Malinski · On goal · xG 0.05V. Nichushkin · Missed · xG 0.04G. Brindley · Missed · xG 0.04J. Drury · On goal · xG 0.04V. Nichushkin · On goal · xG 0.04R. Colton · On goal · xG 0.04I. Ivan · On goal · xG 0.03I. Solovyov · On goal · xG 0.03R. Colton · On goal · xG 0.03R. Colton · On goal · xG 0.03J. Manson · On goal · xG 0.02C. Makar · Missed · xG 0.02C. Makar · Missed · xG 0.02V. Nichushkin · Missed · xG 0.02C. Makar · On goal · xG 0.02B. Nelson · On goal · xG 0.02J. Manson · On goal · xG 0.02V. Nichushkin · On goal · xG 0.02N. MacKinnon · On goal · xG 0.01S. Malinski · Missed · xG 0.01S. Malinski · On goal · xG 0.01R. Colton · On goal · xG 0.01S. Malinski · On goal · xG 0.01S. Malinski · On goal · xG 0.01J. Manson · On goal · xG 0.01C. Makar · Missed · xG 0.01B. Burns · On goal · xG 0.01N. MacKinnon · On goal · xG 0.01B. Burns · On goal · xG 0.01J. Manson · On goal · xG 0.01I. Solovyov · Missed · xG 0.01S. Malinski · On goal · xG 0.01B. Burns · On goal · xG 0.00B. Burns · On goal · xG 0.00R. Colton · On goal · xG 0.00
COL3 G · 2.6 xG · 53 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

NSHvsCOL
3.95 G
All situations
3 G2.6
1.84 G
Even strength
3 G2.3
0.21 G
Power play
0 G0.4
0.00 G
Shorthanded
0 G0.0

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 92 unblocked attempts. Empty-net goals are left out of the goal counts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
NSH39%61%COL

Flurry-adjusted xG 2.00 – 2.61

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

NSHvsCOL
30
Shots on goal
43
64%
Faceoffs
36%
1/1
Power play
0/2
4
Penalty minutes
2
16
Hits
14
12
Blocked shots
17
16
Giveaways
20
5
Takeaways
6

Box score

every player line
Nashville Predators skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
59R. JosiD033+320.05020—26:16
76B. SkjeiD000+430.52010—23:58
41N. HagueD000000.00010—22:08
48N. PerbixD000+100.00010—20:55
90R. O'ReillyC314+460.740008319:44
9F. ForsbergL123+350.220103318:35
77L. EvangelistaR022+300.00000—18:11
91S. StamkosC112+120.580006716:55
58M. BuntingL112+120.23010—15:19
56E. HaulaL000010.060125015:07
37N. BlankenburgD000-110.01000—14:18
20J. BarronD000-100.00220—13:12
40F. SvechkovC000000.000007312:26
47M. McCarronC101010.903105812:23
36C. SmithR000-200.06202—12:13
17T. JostC000040.29210012:05
71M. WoodR000020.14100—11:11
49R. SchaeferL000-210.07600—11:04
Nashville Predators goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
74J. Saros(W)43403.9302.63-0.3760:00

Season series

Tied 2-2

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).