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Avalanche at Predators
NHL

Colorado Avalanche at Nashville Predators

NHL scoreboard
Colorado Avalanche
▸3
Nashville Predators
0
FinalTV FDSNSO, ALT2·Bridgestone Arena

Recap

written from the game data

The Colorado Avalanche beat the Nashville Predators 3-0. The Avalanche scored first and never trailed. The Avalanche led 1-0 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Brent Burns's goal at 0:15 of the first period, which took the Avalanche's chances from 46% to 57%. Expected goals favored the Avalanche, 4.4 to 2.9; shots on goal were COL 26, NSH 35. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Predators win a replay of these chances 61% of the time. Mackenzie Blackwood stopped 35 of 35 (1.000), 3.0 goals saved above expected; Juuse Saros stopped 23 of 24 (.958), 1.3 goals saved above expected. Three stars: 1. Mackenzie Blackwood (35 saves, 1.000), 2. Brent Burns (1 G), 3. Juuse Saros (23 saves, .958).

Three stars

  1. ★
    COL
    M. Blackwood35 saves, 1.000
  2. ★★
    COL
    B. Burns1 G
  3. ★★★
    NSH
    J. Saros23 saves, .958

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdT
COLCOL16010210326
NSHNSH01601108035

Scoring

3 goals

1st period

  1. COL
    B. Burns(2)
    Unassisted
    wristxG 0.02win prob +11 ptsVideo
    1-0
    0:15

3rd period

  1. COL
    N. MacKinnon(17)EN
    B. Nelson (6), G. Landeskog (5)
    wristxG 0.74win prob +5 ptsVideo
    2-0
    18:25
  2. COL
    J. Drury(4)EN
    A. Lehkonen (11), P. Kelly (5)
    wristxG 0.94Video
    3-0
    19:09

Penalties

COL 6 PIM·NSH 4 PIM

1st

  • 14:12COLMartin Necas · Holdingdrawn by Filip Forsberg2 min

2nd

  • 7:21COLDevon Toews · Trippingdrawn by Luke Evangelista2 min
  • 9:54NSHFilip Forsberg · Interferencedrawn by Cale Makar2 min

3rd

  • 3:40COLDevon Toews · Interferencedrawn by Jonathan Marchessault2 min
  • 6:06NSHMichael McCarron · Interferencedrawn by Jack Drury2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
NSH goalCOL goalFinal: NSH 0%

Biggest swing: Brent Burns, 1st 0:15 — COL 46% → 57%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
R. Josi · On goal · xG 0.46F. Svechkov · On goal · xG 0.21R. O'Reilly · On goal · xG 0.19M. McCarron · On goal · xG 0.18F. Forsberg · On goal · xG 0.15M. Wood · On goal · xG 0.15R. Josi · On goal · xG 0.12S. Stamkos · Missed · xG 0.10E. Haula · On goal · xG 0.10M. McCarron · On goal · xG 0.09S. Stamkos · Missed · xG 0.08S. Stamkos · Missed · xG 0.08L. Evangelista · On goal · xG 0.07F. Forsberg · On goal · xG 0.07R. O'Reilly · On goal · xG 0.06L. Evangelista · On goal · xG 0.06M. McCarron · On goal · xG 0.06N. Hague · On goal · xG 0.05M. Bunting · On goal · xG 0.05F. Forsberg · On goal · xG 0.04R. Josi · On goal · xG 0.04N. Blankenburg · Missed · xG 0.04N. Blankenburg · On goal · xG 0.04L. Evangelista · On goal · xG 0.03L. Evangelista · On goal · xG 0.03R. Josi · Missed · xG 0.03L. Evangelista · Missed · xG 0.03N. Perbix · Missed · xG 0.02B. Skjei · On goal · xG 0.02F. Forsberg · On goal · xG 0.02N. Perbix · Missed · xG 0.02F. Svechkov · On goal · xG 0.02B. Skjei · On goal · xG 0.02B. Skjei · Missed · xG 0.02M. Bunting · Missed · xG 0.02E. Haula · Missed · xG 0.02R. O'Reilly · On goal · xG 0.01E. Haula · On goal · xG 0.01L. Evangelista · On goal · xG 0.01R. Josi · On goal · xG 0.01J. Marchessault · Missed · xG 0.01O. Wiesblatt · Missed · xG 0.01M. McCarron · On goal · xG 0.01J. Marchessault · Missed · xG 0.01N. Blankenburg · Missed · xG 0.01S. Stastney · On goal · xG 0.01B. Skjei · On goal · xG 0.01L. Evangelista · On goal · xG 0.01E. Haula · Missed · xG 0.00J. Marchessault · Missed · xG 0.00N. Blankenburg · Missed · xG 0.00L. Evangelista · On goal · xG 0.00M. McCarron · On goal · xG 0.00
NSH0 G · 2.9 xG · 53 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

COLvsNSH
4.41 G
All situations
0 G2.9
2.11 G
Even strength
0 G2.6
0.10 G
Power play
0 G0.3
0.10 G
Shorthanded
0 G0.0

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 94 unblocked attempts. Empty-net goals are left out of the goal counts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
COL39%61%NSH

Flurry-adjusted xG 2.28 – 2.90

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

COLvsNSH
26
Shots on goal
35
43%
Faceoffs
57%
0/2
Power play
0/3
6
Penalty minutes
4
28
Hits
15
13
Blocked shots
8
10
Giveaways
17
4
Takeaways
8

Box score

every player line
Colorado Avalanche skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
8C. MakarD000+110.11210—25:35
29N. MacKinnonC101+110.740004121:11
62A. LehkonenL011+120.85110—20:14
7D. ToewsD000+110.00114—19:08
92G. LandeskogL011+220.240003318:38
70S. MalinskiD000010.05130—18:22
42J. MansonD000+210.04410—18:13
11B. NelsonC011+210.160005317:46
88M. NecasC000010.10002017:46
49S. GirardD000000.01010—17:38
84B. BurnsD101+230.08010—17:28
18J. DruryC101+131.190103616:02
17P. KellyC011+110.00500015:48
20R. ColtonC000+150.384105015:32
95V. OlofssonL000010.36000—12:49
93Z. BardakovC000010.053105008:05
14J. PolinR000000.00500—06:54
57T. NielsenC000010.05210006:51
Colorado Avalanche goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
39M. Blackwood(W)353501.0002.95+2.9560:00

Season series

Tied 2-2

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).