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Predators at Avalanche
NHL

Nashville Predators at Colorado Avalanche

NHL scoreboard
Nashville Predators
2
Colorado Avalanche
▸4
FinalTV FDSNSO, ALT·Ball Arena

Recap

written from the game data

The Colorado Avalanche beat the Nashville Predators 4-2. The Avalanche scored first and never trailed. The Avalanche led 3-1 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Victor Olofsson's goal at 9:57 of the second period, which took the Avalanche's chances from 71% to 87%. Expected goals favored the Avalanche, 5.6 to 3.0; shots on goal were NSH 29, COL 41. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Avalanche win a replay of these chances 67% of the time. Justus Annunen stopped 37 of 40 (.925), 1.2 goals saved above expected; Scott Wedgewood stopped 27 of 29 (.931), 1.0 goals saved above expected. Three stars: 1. Scott Wedgewood (27 saves, .931), 2. Nathan MacKinnon (1 G, 1 A), 3. Samuel Girard (2 A).

Three stars

  1. ★
    COL
    S. Wedgewood27 saves, .931
  2. ★★
    COL
    N. MacKinnon1 G, 1 A
  3. ★★★
    COL
    S. Girard2 A

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdT
NSHNSH1801318229
COLCOL211115115441

Scoring

6 goals

1st period

  1. COL
    N. MacKinnon(26)
    B. Burns (13)
    wristxG 0.05win prob +11 ptsVideo
    0-1
    1:26
  2. COL
    J. Drury(5)
    C. Makar (28), S. Girard (4)
    wristxG 0.04win prob +15 ptsVideo
    0-2
    11:47
  3. NSH
    J. Marchessault(7)PPG
    R. O'Reilly (14), F. Forsberg (11)
    wristxG 0.11win prob +12 ptsVideo
    1-2
    12:37

2nd period

  1. COL
    V. Olofsson(7)
    S. Girard (5), S. Malinski (15)
    wristxG 0.15win prob +16 ptsVideo
    1-3
    9:57

3rd period

  1. COL
    V. Nichushkin(8)EN
    N. MacKinnon (29)
    backhandxG 0.90win prob +1 ptsVideo
    1-4
    16:26
  2. NSH
    T. Jost(2)
    F. Svechkov (7)
    wristxG 0.12Video
    2-4
    18:57

Penalties

NSH 8 PIM·COL 6 PIM

1st

  • 4:13COLSam Malinski · Roughingdrawn by Luke Evangelista2 min
  • 9:56NSHReid Schaefer · Delaying game puck over glass2 min
  • 11:34COLValeri Nichushkin · Interferencedrawn by Fedor Svechkov2 min

2nd

  • 5:59COLSam Malinski · High stickingdrawn by Luke Evangelista2 min
  • 14:00NSHTyson Jost · Hookingdrawn by Victor Olofsson2 min
  • 17:39NSHTyson Jost · High stickingdrawn by Gabriel Landeskog2 min

3rd

  • 12:12NSHRoman Josi · Trippingdrawn by Valeri Nichushkin2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
COL goalNSH goalFinal: COL 100%

Biggest swing: Victor Olofsson, 2nd 9:57 — COL 71% → 87%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
V. Nichushkin · Goal · xG 0.90G. Landeskog · Missed · xG 0.53G. Landeskog · Missed · xG 0.26G. Landeskog · On goal · xG 0.22N. MacKinnon · On goal · xG 0.20P. Kelly · On goal · xG 0.18G. Brindley · Missed · xG 0.17V. Olofsson · Goal · xG 0.15V. Nichushkin · On goal · xG 0.15G. Landeskog · On goal · xG 0.15M. Necas · On goal · xG 0.14J. Manson · On goal · xG 0.14V. Nichushkin · On goal · xG 0.13D. Toews · On goal · xG 0.13G. Landeskog · Missed · xG 0.13J. Drury · On goal · xG 0.12B. Nelson · On goal · xG 0.12V. Nichushkin · On goal · xG 0.12G. Brindley · On goal · xG 0.11G. Landeskog · Missed · xG 0.10B. Nelson · On goal · xG 0.10G. Brindley · Missed · xG 0.10P. Kelly · On goal · xG 0.09G. Brindley · On goal · xG 0.08V. Nichushkin · On goal · xG 0.08V. Nichushkin · On goal · xG 0.08R. Colton · Missed · xG 0.08B. Nelson · On goal · xG 0.08V. Olofsson · On goal · xG 0.07S. Girard · On goal · xG 0.07G. Brindley · On goal · xG 0.06C. Makar · On goal · xG 0.06J. Kiviranta · On goal · xG 0.05N. MacKinnon · Goal · xG 0.05N. MacKinnon · On goal · xG 0.04G. Brindley · On goal · xG 0.04G. Landeskog · On goal · xG 0.04J. Drury · Goal · xG 0.04S. Malinski · Missed · xG 0.03V. Nichushkin · On goal · xG 0.03S. Girard · Missed · xG 0.03R. Colton · On goal · xG 0.02C. Makar · Missed · xG 0.02S. Malinski · Missed · xG 0.02J. Manson · Missed · xG 0.02V. Nichushkin · Missed · xG 0.01D. Toews · On goal · xG 0.01M. Necas · On goal · xG 0.01M. Necas · Missed · xG 0.01M. Necas · On goal · xG 0.01V. Nichushkin · On goal · xG 0.01P. Kelly · Missed · xG 0.00B. Burns · On goal · xG 0.00P. Kelly · On goal · xG 0.00B. Nelson · On goal · xG 0.00R. Colton · On goal · xG 0.00
COL4 G · 5.6 xG · 56 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

NSHvsCOL
3.02 G
All situations
3 G5.6
2.21 G
Even strength
3 G2.8
0.71 G
Power play
0 G1.4

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 100 unblocked attempts. Empty-net goals are left out of the goal counts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
NSH33%67%COL

Flurry-adjusted xG 2.96 – 4.05

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

NSHvsCOL
29
Shots on goal
41
46%
Faceoffs
54%
1/3
Power play
0/4
8
Penalty minutes
6
18
Hits
16
19
Blocked shots
16
13
Giveaways
15
5
Takeaways
3

Box score

every player line
Nashville Predators skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
59R. JosiD000-240.23122—21:03
48N. PerbixD000000.00110—20:29
76B. SkjeiD000-110.02100—20:18
90R. O'ReillyC011-110.211103919:53
83A. WilsbyD000-100.00020—19:47
37N. BlankenburgD000-110.10230—19:16
41N. HagueD000-100.00020—18:25
91S. StamkosC000-250.590105717:39
9F. ForsbergL011-220.25110—17:06
56E. HaulaL000-210.522003816:25
77L. EvangelistaR000-110.03000—15:35
81J. MarchessaultR101-240.18100—15:35
47M. McCarronC000010.211306714:42
40F. SvechkovC011+110.121005013:08
58M. BuntingL000-140.21310—12:33
71M. WoodR000+120.18010—12:11
17T. JostC101+110.12204010:30
49R. SchaeferL000-100.00112—08:23
Nashville Predators goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
29J. Annunen(L)40373.9254.17+1.1759:02

Season series

Tied 2-2

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).