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Oilers at Predators
NHL

Edmonton Oilers at Nashville Predators

NHL scoreboard
Edmonton Oilers
3
Nashville Predators
▸4
Final/OTTV FDSNSO, SNO·Bridgestone Arena

Recap

written from the game data

The Nashville Predators beat the Edmonton Oilers 4-3 in overtime, Roman Josi scoring at 3:43. The lead changed hands 2 times. It was tied 3-3 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Roman Josi's goal at 3:43 of overtime, which took the Predators' chances from 51% to 100%. Expected goals were close — EDM 3.1, NSH 3.2; shots on goal were EDM 31, NSH 27. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Predators win a replay of these chances 51% of the time. Tristan Jarry stopped 23 of 27 (.852), 0.8 goals below expected; Juuse Saros stopped 28 of 31 (.903). Three stars: 1. Roman Josi (2 G), 2. Steven Stamkos (1 G), 3. Erik Haula (1 G).

Three stars

  1. ★
    NSH
    R. Josi2 G
  2. ★★
    NSH
    S. Stamkos1 G
  3. ★★★
    NSH
    E. Haula1 G

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdOTT
EDMEDM1132601101331
NSHNSH1102601011427

Scoring

7 goals

1st period

  1. NSH
    S. Stamkos(20)
    M. Bunting (15)
    wristxG 0.12win prob +7 ptsVideo
    0-1
    2:45
  2. EDM
    Z. Hyman(15)PPG
    L. Draisaitl (41), C. McDavid (51)
    wristxG 0.14win prob +11 ptsVideo
    1-1
    17:06

2nd period

  1. NSH
    E. Haula(8)
    M. Wood (7), A. Wilsby (6)
    backhandxG 0.08win prob +16 ptsVideo
    1-2
    3:03
  2. EDM
    L. Draisaitl(25)
    K. Kapanen (6), V. Podkolzin (10)
    snapxG 0.12win prob +17 ptsVideo
    2-2
    7:20
  3. EDM
    Z. Hyman(16)PPG
    L. Draisaitl (42), C. McDavid (52)
    pokexG 0.53win prob +17 ptsVideo
    3-2
    13:12
  4. NSH
    R. Josi(7)
    N. Blankenburg (14)
    slapxG 0.05win prob +20 ptsVideo
    3-3
    13:50

Overtime

  1. NSH
    R. Josi(8)
    B. Skjei (13), R. O'Reilly (26)
    wristxG 0.07win prob +49 ptsVideo
    3-4
    3:43

Penalties

EDM 11 PIM·NSH 13 PIM

1st

  • 0:03EDMDarnell Nurse · Fightingdrawn by Michael McCarron5 min
  • 0:03NSHMichael McCarron · Fightingdrawn by Darnell Nurse5 min
  • 11:18NSHFilip Forsberg · Trippingdrawn by Evan Bouchard2 min
  • 16:50NSHJustin Barron · Trippingdrawn by Andrew Mangiapane2 min

2nd

  • 0:58EDMKasperi Kapanen · Slashingdrawn by Ryan O'Reilly2 min
  • 12:15NSHNick Blankenburg · Trippingdrawn by Jack Roslovic2 min

3rd

  • 10:48EDMAndrew Mangiapane · Holding the stickdrawn by Tyson Jost2 min
  • 11:08NSHFilip Forsberg · Slashingdrawn by Mattias Ekholm2 min
  • 16:48EDMMattias Janmark · Trippingdrawn by Erik Haula2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
NSH goalEDM goalFinal: NSH 100%

Biggest swing: Roman Josi, OT 3:43 — NSH 51% → 100%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
R. O'Reilly · On goal · xG 0.40S. Stamkos · Missed · xG 0.28C. Smith · Missed · xG 0.20C. Smith · On goal · xG 0.20R. Josi · Missed · xG 0.20F. Forsberg · Missed · xG 0.18E. Haula · Missed · xG 0.18S. Stamkos · Goal · xG 0.12E. Haula · On goal · xG 0.12F. Forsberg · Missed · xG 0.10S. Stamkos · On goal · xG 0.09C. Smith · On goal · xG 0.09E. Haula · Goal · xG 0.08F. Forsberg · Missed · xG 0.08M. Bunting · On goal · xG 0.07R. Josi · Goal · xG 0.07E. Haula · On goal · xG 0.06E. Haula · On goal · xG 0.06L. Evangelista · Missed · xG 0.06R. Josi · Goal · xG 0.05M. Bunting · On goal · xG 0.05L. Evangelista · On goal · xG 0.05R. O'Reilly · On goal · xG 0.05B. Skjei · On goal · xG 0.04R. Josi · On goal · xG 0.04R. Schaefer · On goal · xG 0.03M. Wood · On goal · xG 0.03A. Wilsby · On goal · xG 0.02B. Skjei · On goal · xG 0.02F. Forsberg · Missed · xG 0.02A. Wilsby · Missed · xG 0.02N. Blankenburg · Missed · xG 0.02F. Forsberg · Missed · xG 0.02R. Schaefer · Missed · xG 0.01E. Haula · On goal · xG 0.01C. Smith · On goal · xG 0.01L. Evangelista · On goal · xG 0.01M. Wood · Missed · xG 0.01M. McCarron · On goal · xG 0.01S. Stamkos · On goal · xG 0.01M. McCarron · On goal · xG 0.00
NSH4 G · 3.2 xG · 41 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

EDMvsNSH
3.13 G
All situations
4 G3.2
1.51 G
Even strength
4 G3.1
1.52 G
Power play
0 G0.1
0.00 G
Shorthanded
0 G0.0

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 84 unblocked attempts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
EDM49%51%NSH

Flurry-adjusted xG 2.97 – 3.00

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

EDMvsNSH
31
Shots on goal
27
48%
Faceoffs
52%
2/4
Power play
0/3
11
Penalty minutes
13
18
Hits
22
19
Blocked shots
11
20
Giveaways
20
4
Takeaways
7

Box score

every player line
Edmonton Oilers skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
2E. BouchardD000-210.08110—27:21
97C. McDavidC022-130.500003626:25
29L. DraisaitlC123040.680005323:59
14M. EkholmD000-100.02440—21:59
25D. NurseD000050.08215—21:30
93R. Nugent-HopkinsC000-120.42020020:44
18Z. HymanL202030.97010—19:13
49T. EmbersonD000020.09050—18:56
42K. KapanenR011030.04102—17:43
96J. WalmanD000-120.04010—17:14
92V. PodkolzinR011010.03000—15:17
28J. RoslovicC000-110.063104314:48
24S. StastneyD000-110.01010—13:53
22M. SavoieC000-110.01000012:39
88A. MangiapaneL000-110.00202—10:20
13M. JanmarkC000-100.00022010:01
10T. FredericC000-100.004007106:53
53I. HowardL000-110.01100—06:14
Edmonton Oilers goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
35T. Jarry(O)27234.8523.16-0.8463:43

Season series

EDM leads 2-1

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).