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Golden Knights at Jets
NHL

Vegas Golden Knights at Winnipeg Jets

Final/OTTV SCRIPPS, TSN3·Canada Life Centre

Recap

written from the game data

The Vegas Golden Knights beat the Winnipeg Jets 4-3 in overtime, Tomas Hertl scoring at 4:47. The Golden Knights came back from two goals down. The Jets led 2-1 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Tomas Hertl's goal at 4:47 of overtime, which took the Golden Knights' chances from 49% to 100%. Expected goals favored the Golden Knights, 2.9 to 1.9; shots on goal were VGK 31, WPG 20. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Golden Knights win a replay of these chances 69% of the time. Carter Hart stopped 17 of 20 (.850), 1.1 goals below expected; Connor Hellebuyck stopped 27 of 31 (.871), 1.1 goals below expected. Three stars: 1. Luke Schenn (1 G), 2. Brett Howden (1 G), 3. Tomas Hertl (1 G, 1 A).

Three stars

  1. ★
    WPG
    L. Schenn1 G
  2. ★★
    VGK
    B. Howden1 G
  3. ★★★
    VGK
    T. Hertl1 G, 1 A

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdOTT
VGKVGK061821215431
WPGWPG15141605320

Scoring

7 goals

1st period

  1. WPG
    backhandxG 0.16win prob +12 ptsVideo
    0-1
    5:16

2nd period

  1. WPG
    wristxG 0.02win prob +16 ptsVideo
    0-2
    12:04
  2. VGK
    M. Stone(13)PPG
    wristxG 0.12win prob +12 ptsVideo
    1-2
    19:09

3rd period

  1. VGK
    N. Hanifin (14), T. Hertl (16)
    slapxG 0.18win prob +29 ptsVideo
    2-2
    8:13
  2. WPG
    wristxG 0.08win prob +38 ptsVideo
    2-3
    14:56
  3. VGK
    backhandxG 0.15win prob +38 ptsVideo
    3-3
    15:55

Overtime

  1. VGK
    T. Hertl(16)PPG
    M. Marner (33), J. Eichel (31)
    tip-inxG 0.14win prob +51 ptsVideo
    4-3
    4:47

Penalties

VGK 9 PIM·WPG 13 PIM

1st

  • 0:16WPGJonathan Toews · Trippingdrawn by Brett Howden2 min
  • 13:17WPGAdam Lowry · Fightingdrawn by Keegan Kolesar5 min
  • 13:17VGKKeegan Kolesar · Fightingdrawn by Adam Lowry5 min

2nd

  • 5:31VGKMark Stone · Slashingdrawn by Alex Iafallo2 min
  • 18:57WPGDylan Samberg · High stickingdrawn by Tomas Hertl2 min

3rd

  • 10:23VGKZach Whitecloud · High stickingdrawn by Tanner Pearson2 min
  • 11:17WPGJosh Morrissey · Hookingdrawn by Mark Stone2 min

OT

  • 4:09WPGDylan Samberg · Trippingdrawn by Mitch Marner2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
WPG goalVGK goalFinal: WPG 0%

Biggest swing: Tomas Hertl, OT 4:47 — VGK 49% → 100%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
D. Samberg · Missed · xG 0.25N. Niederreiter · On goal · xG 0.25M. Barron · On goal · xG 0.23C. Perfetti · Goal · xG 0.16M. Scheifele · Missed · xG 0.11N. Niederreiter · Missed · xG 0.11G. Vilardi · On goal · xG 0.10K. Connor · Goal · xG 0.08N. Pionk · On goal · xG 0.08J. Toews · On goal · xG 0.08V. Namestnikov · On goal · xG 0.07K. Connor · Missed · xG 0.07M. Barron · On goal · xG 0.06G. Nyquist · On goal · xG 0.06K. Connor · On goal · xG 0.05M. Barron · On goal · xG 0.04M. Barron · On goal · xG 0.02N. Pionk · On goal · xG 0.02L. Schenn · Goal · xG 0.02D. DeMelo · On goal · xG 0.01M. Scheifele · Missed · xG 0.01J. Morrissey · Missed · xG 0.01D. Samberg · On goal · xG 0.01N. Niederreiter · On goal · xG 0.01T. Pearson · On goal · xG 0.01A. Lowry · On goal · xG 0.01
WPG3 G · 1.9 xG · 26 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

VGKvsWPG
2.94 G
All situations
3 G1.9
2.52 G
Even strength
3 G1.6
0.42 G
Power play
0 G0.4
0.00 G
Shorthanded
0 G0.0

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 72 unblocked attempts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
VGK69%31%WPG

Flurry-adjusted xG 2.89 – 1.87

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

VGKvsWPG
31
Shots on goal
20
44%
Faceoffs
56%
2/4
Power play
0/2
9
Penalty minutes
13
27
Hits
25
10
Blocked shots
18
13
Giveaways
14
5
Takeaways
3

Box score

every player line
Vegas Golden Knights skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
15N. HanifinD011+230.15320—30:49
9J. EichelC011030.392005325:59
6K. KorczakD000-110.01210—23:34
61M. StoneR101020.27002—22:03
2Z. WhitecloudD000010.02022—21:30
93M. MarnerR022-110.140002220:13
5J. LauzonD000-140.19510—19:33
17B. HuttonD011010.01200—16:19
20B. SaadL011+120.21100—16:11
21B. HowdenC101+130.552103316:08
16P. DorofeyevR011-200.00010—15:56
48T. HertlC112050.330005015:48
49I. BarbashevL000-100.07210—14:15
19R. SmithR101+140.3600010014:13
55K. KolesarR000+110.09505—12:00
42B. BowmanR000-300.13000—11:56
10C. SissonsC000000.011005009:28
88J. MegnaD000-200.00210—05:04
Vegas Golden Knights goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
79C. Hart(W)20173.8501.93-1.0764:47

Season series

VGK leads 2-1

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).