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Predators at Mammoth
NHL

Nashville Predators at Utah Mammoth

NHL scoreboard
Nashville Predators
▸4
Utah Mammoth
3
FinalTV FDSNSO, Utah16·Delta Center

Recap

written from the game data

The Nashville Predators beat the Utah Mammoth 4-3. The Mammoth scored first; the Predators answered. It was tied 2-2 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Steven Stamkos's goal at 13:17 of the third period, which took the Predators' chances from 48% to 85%. Expected goals favored the Mammoth, 3.9 to 2.7; shots on goal were NSH 26, UTA 31. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Mammoth win a replay of these chances 75% of the time. Juuse Saros stopped 28 of 31 (.903), 0.9 goals saved above expected; Vitek Vanecek stopped 22 of 26 (.846), 1.7 goals below expected. Three stars: 1. Steven Stamkos (2 G, 1 A), 2. Dylan Guenther (1 G, 1 A), 3. Roman Josi (1 G).

Three stars

  1. ★
    NSH
    S. Stamkos2 G, 1 A
  2. ★★
    UTA
    D. Guenther1 G, 1 A
  3. ★★★
    NSH
    R. Josi1 G

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdT
NSHNSH1719210426
UTAUTA111110110331

Scoring

7 goals

1st period

  1. UTA
    J. Peterka(15)PPG
    D. Guenther (15), C. Keller (21)
    snapxG 0.19win prob +8 ptsVideo
    0-1
    5:48
  2. NSH
    R. Josi(4)
    F. Forsberg (14), S. Stamkos (8)
    snapxG 0.11win prob +13 ptsVideo
    1-1
    9:51

2nd period

  1. UTA
    M. Sergachev(5)
    N. Schmaltz (21), S. Durzi (8)
    slapxG 0.06win prob +16 ptsVideo
    1-2
    3:41
  2. NSH
    L. Evangelista(6)
    T. Jost (4), N. Blankenburg (12)
    wristxG 0.18win prob +17 ptsVideo
    2-2
    7:51

3rd period

  1. UTA
    D. Guenther(17)
    L. Crouse (7), B. Hayton (5)
    backhandxG 0.14win prob +26 ptsVideo
    2-3
    4:02
  2. NSH
    S. Stamkos(16)PPG
    R. O'Reilly (22), L. Evangelista (21)
    snapxG 0.19win prob +29 ptsVideo
    3-3
    11:39
  3. NSH
    S. Stamkos(17)
    R. O'Reilly (23), N. Perbix (5)
    wristxG 0.15win prob +37 ptsVideo
    4-3
    13:17

Penalties

NSH 8 PIM·UTA 4 PIM

1st

  • 4:56NSHNicolas Hague · High stickingdrawn by Barrett Hayton2 min
  • 16:59NSHCole Smith · Boardingdrawn by Nick Schmaltz2 min

2nd

  • 14:34UTAIan Cole · Interferencedrawn by Erik Haula2 min

3rd

  • 10:05UTAKevin Stenlund · Slashingdrawn by Filip Forsberg2 min
  • 14:05NSHBrady Skjei · Trippingdrawn by Barrett Hayton2 min
  • 15:40NSHNick Perbix · Cross checkingdrawn by Nick Schmaltz2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
UTA goalNSH goalFinal: UTA 0%

Biggest swing: Steven Stamkos, 3rd 13:17 — NSH 48% → 85%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
J. Peterka · Missed · xG 0.23B. Hayton · On goal · xG 0.20J. Peterka · Goal · xG 0.19D. Guenther · On goal · xG 0.19N. Schmaltz · Missed · xG 0.18N. DeSimone · On goal · xG 0.17N. Schmaltz · Missed · xG 0.16M. Carcone · Missed · xG 0.15D. But · Missed · xG 0.14D. But · Missed · xG 0.14D. Guenther · Goal · xG 0.14D. Guenther · On goal · xG 0.12N. Schmaltz · On goal · xG 0.12J. Peterka · On goal · xG 0.11N. Schmaltz · On goal · xG 0.11B. Hayton · On goal · xG 0.11M. Carcone · On goal · xG 0.11K. Stenlund · On goal · xG 0.10J. Peterka · On goal · xG 0.10D. But · Missed · xG 0.10D. Guenther · On goal · xG 0.10N. Schmaltz · Missed · xG 0.07N. Schmaltz · Missed · xG 0.06M. Sergachev · Goal · xG 0.06M. Carcone · On goal · xG 0.05A. Kerfoot · On goal · xG 0.05B. Hayton · On goal · xG 0.05A. Kerfoot · On goal · xG 0.05D. Guenther · On goal · xG 0.05C. Keller · On goal · xG 0.04B. Hayton · Missed · xG 0.04I. Cole · On goal · xG 0.04M. Sergachev · On goal · xG 0.03B. Hayton · Missed · xG 0.03M. Sergachev · On goal · xG 0.03L. Crouse · Missed · xG 0.03D. Guenther · On goal · xG 0.03I. Cole · On goal · xG 0.02N. Schmidt · Missed · xG 0.02D. Guenther · Missed · xG 0.02S. Durzi · On goal · xG 0.02D. But · Missed · xG 0.02N. Schmidt · On goal · xG 0.02I. Cole · Missed · xG 0.02A. Kerfoot · On goal · xG 0.01S. Durzi · Missed · xG 0.01N. Schmidt · Missed · xG 0.01J. Marino · Missed · xG 0.01D. Guenther · Missed · xG 0.01S. Durzi · Missed · xG 0.01L. Crouse · On goal · xG 0.00L. Crouse · On goal · xG 0.00
UTA3 G · 3.9 xG · 52 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

NSHvsUTA
2.74 G
All situations
3 G3.9
1.33 G
Even strength
2 G2.5
0.81 G
Power play
1 G1.4
0.10 G
Shorthanded
0 G0.0

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 89 unblocked attempts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
NSH25%75%UTA

Flurry-adjusted xG 2.24 – 3.85

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

NSHvsUTA
26
Shots on goal
31
47%
Faceoffs
53%
1/2
Power play
1/4
8
Penalty minutes
4
16
Hits
16
19
Blocked shots
16
10
Giveaways
15
4
Takeaways
3

Box score

every player line
Nashville Predators skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
59R. JosiD101+230.21020—22:43
76B. SkjeiD000-210.02012—21:55
90R. O'ReillyC022+110.090205320:33
48N. PerbixD011+200.00102—19:34
41N. HagueD000+110.02122—19:21
9F. ForsbergL011010.05300—19:03
83A. WilsbyD000-220.02010—18:31
91S. StamkosC213+130.570206317:12
56E. HaulaL000030.782104517:02
77L. EvangelistaR112+230.39000—16:37
37N. BlankenburgD011+100.03100—15:24
40F. SvechkovC000+100.002204214:17
47M. McCarronC000-140.152304314:05
36C. SmithR000-100.25112—13:18
58M. BuntingL000020.03000—13:12
17T. JostC011+110.04100010:33
49R. SchaeferL000-100.00110—10:24
71M. WoodR000010.0611010009:24
Nashville Predators goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
74J. Saros(W)31283.9033.87+0.8760:00

Season series

UTA leads 3-1

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).