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Mammoth at Predators
NHL

Utah Mammoth at Nashville Predators

NHL scoreboard
Utah Mammoth
▸3
Nashville Predators
2
Final/OTTV FDSNSO, Utah16·Bridgestone Arena

Recap

written from the game data

The Utah Mammoth beat the Nashville Predators 3-2 in overtime, Dylan Guenther scoring at 2:56. The lead changed hands 2 times. The Predators led 2-1 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Dylan Guenther's goal at 2:56 of overtime, which took the Mammoth's chances from 49% to 100%. Expected goals favored the Predators, 3.1 to 2.8; shots on goal were UTA 23, NSH 23. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Predators win a replay of these chances 54% of the time. Karel Vejmelka stopped 21 of 23 (.913), 1.1 goals saved above expected; Juuse Saros stopped 20 of 23 (.870). Three stars: 1. Dylan Guenther (1 G, 1 A), 2. Jack McBain (1 G), 3. Filip Forsberg (1 G).

Three stars

  1. ★
    UTA
    D. Guenther1 G, 1 A
  2. ★★
    UTA
    J. McBain1 G
  3. ★★★
    NSH
    F. Forsberg1 G

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdOTT
UTAUTA111031811323
NSHNSH16190800223

Scoring

5 goals

1st period

  1. UTA
    L. Cooley(1)
    D. Guenther (1), J. Peterka (1)
    wristxG 0.18win prob +12 ptsVideo
    1-0
    2:21
  2. NSH
    F. Forsberg(1)
    B. Martin (1)
    snapxG 0.07win prob +13 ptsVideo
    1-1
    7:23

2nd period

  1. NSH
    E. Haula(1)
    L. Evangelista (1), J. Marchessault (1)
    deflectedxG 0.49win prob +17 ptsVideo
    1-2
    13:13

3rd period

  1. UTA
    J. McBain(1)
    N. Schmaltz (2), S. Durzi (1)
    wristxG 0.43win prob +32 ptsVideo
    2-2
    11:37

Overtime

  1. UTA
    D. Guenther(2)
    Unassisted
    backhandxG 0.27win prob +51 ptsVideo
    3-2
    2:56

Penalties

UTA 14 PIM·NSH 12 PIM

1st

  • 13:06NSHSteven Stamkos · Interferencedrawn by Andrew Agozzino2 min
  • 13:06NSHSteven Stamkos · Abuse of officials2 min
  • 18:29NSHErik Haula · Trippingdrawn by Dylan Guenther2 min

2nd

  • 3:26UTADmitri Simashev · High stickingdrawn by Michael Bunting2 min
  • 8:30UTAKevin Stenlund · Slashingdrawn by Spencer Stastney2 min
  • 9:30NSHJonathan Marchessault · Roughingdrawn by Jack McBain2 min
  • 9:30UTAJack McBain · Roughingdrawn by Jonathan Marchessault2 min
  • 10:45UTASean Durzi · Trippingdrawn by Steven Stamkos2 min
  • 12:29NSHSteven Stamkos · High stickingdrawn by Ian Cole2 min
  • 12:29UTAIan Cole · Trippingdrawn by Steven Stamkos2 min
  • 19:13UTANick Schmaltz · Trippingdrawn by Spencer Stastney2 min

3rd

  • 4:54NSHAdam Wilsby · Hookingdrawn by Dylan Guenther2 min
  • 8:37UTASean Durzi · High stickingdrawn by Roman Josi2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
NSH goalUTA goalFinal: NSH 0%

Biggest swing: Dylan Guenther, OT 2:56 — UTA 49% → 100%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
E. Haula · Goal · xG 0.49E. Haula · On goal · xG 0.21M. Bunting · Missed · xG 0.17R. Josi · Missed · xG 0.17F. Svechkov · On goal · xG 0.16J. Marchessault · On goal · xG 0.15L. Evangelista · On goal · xG 0.14F. Forsberg · Missed · xG 0.12S. Stastney · Missed · xG 0.11J. Marchessault · On goal · xG 0.11R. O'Reilly · On goal · xG 0.11M. Bunting · Missed · xG 0.10F. Svechkov · On goal · xG 0.10M. Bunting · Missed · xG 0.09F. Svechkov · On goal · xG 0.08J. Marchessault · On goal · xG 0.08F. Forsberg · On goal · xG 0.08S. Stamkos · On goal · xG 0.08M. Bunting · Missed · xG 0.07F. Forsberg · Goal · xG 0.07E. Haula · On goal · xG 0.06F. Forsberg · On goal · xG 0.05L. Evangelista · Missed · xG 0.05J. Marchessault · On goal · xG 0.04T. Jost · On goal · xG 0.04F. Forsberg · On goal · xG 0.04F. Forsberg · Missed · xG 0.03F. Forsberg · On goal · xG 0.03L. Evangelista · On goal · xG 0.02S. Stamkos · Missed · xG 0.02M. Bunting · Missed · xG 0.01L. Evangelista · Missed · xG 0.01F. Forsberg · Missed · xG 0.01M. Bunting · Missed · xG 0.01T. Jost · On goal · xG 0.01T. Jost · On goal · xG 0.01M. McCarron · Missed · xG 0.01J. Marchessault · On goal · xG 0.00N. Perbix · Missed · xG 0.00
NSH2 G · 3.1 xG · 39 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

UTAvsNSH
2.83 G
All situations
2 G3.1
1.53 G
Even strength
2 G2.1
1.10 G
Power play
0 G1.1
0.20 G
Shorthanded
0 G0.0

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 69 unblocked attempts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
UTA46%54%NSH

Flurry-adjusted xG 2.79 – 3.00

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

UTAvsNSH
23
Shots on goal
23
42%
Faceoffs
58%
0/4
Power play
0/5
14
Penalty minutes
12
21
Hits
20
20
Blocked shots
12
20
Giveaways
25
6
Takeaways
7

Box score

every player line
Utah Mammoth skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
98M. SergachevD000000.00070—28:10
11D. GuentherR112+240.63130—23:54
9C. KellerR000-110.12010—23:05
92L. CooleyC101+130.281003322:40
8N. SchmaltzC011040.490021320:04
28I. ColeD000+110.02112—19:11
88N. SchmidtD000-110.03010—18:41
82K. StenlundC000010.131125217:28
22J. McBainC101040.651125017:08
50S. DurziD011+100.00224—16:58
6J. MarinoD000-200.00110—16:31
67L. CrouseL000-100.12500—16:15
77J. PeterkaR011+110.03000—15:08
13B. TanevL000020.11600—11:13
2O. MaattaD000+100.00000—09:42
56K. YamamotoR000010.1900010009:28
26D. SimashevD000+100.00022—08:31
36A. AgozzinoL000000.002005005:21
Utah Mammoth goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
70K. Vejmelka(W)23212.9133.13+1.1362:16

Season series

UTA leads 3-1

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).