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Lightning at Panthers
NHL

Tampa Bay Lightning at Florida Panthers

NHL scoreboard
Tampa Bay Lightning
▸4
Florida Panthers
2
FinalTV The Spot, SCRIPPS·Amerant Bank Arena

Recap

written from the game data

The Tampa Bay Lightning beat the Florida Panthers 4-2. The Panthers scored first; the Lightning answered. The Lightning led 3-2 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Brad Marchand's goal at 7:05 of the second period, which took the Panthers' chances from 18% to 35%. Expected goals favored the Panthers, 3.8 to 3.0; shots on goal were TBL 25, FLA 26. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Panthers win a replay of these chances 72% of the time. Andrei Vasilevskiy stopped 24 of 26 (.923), 1.8 goals saved above expected; Sergei Bobrovsky stopped 21 of 24 (.875), 0.7 goals below expected. Three stars: 1. Jake Guentzel (1 G), 2. Eetu Luostarinen (1 G), 3. Nikita Kucherov (2 G).

Three stars

  1. ★
    TBL
    J. Guentzel1 G
  2. ★★
    FLA
    E. Luostarinen1 G
  3. ★★★
    TBL
    N. Kucherov2 G

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdT
TBLTBL2121815425
FLAFLA1518013226

Scoring

6 goals

1st period

  1. FLA
    E. Luostarinen(4)
    M. Samoskevich (14), E. Rodrigues (11)
    backhandxG 0.18win prob +12 ptsVideo
    0-1
    5:37
  2. TBL
    J. Guentzel(18)SHG
    A. Cirelli (11), M. Crozier (6)
    snapxG 0.13win prob +13 ptsVideo
    1-1
    13:05
  3. TBL
    P. Holmberg(5)
    Y. Gourde (8), D. Carlile (2)
    snapxG 0.10win prob +16 ptsVideo
    2-1
    19:52

2nd period

  1. TBL
    N. Kucherov(14)
    B. Point (14), G. Goncalves (6)
    backhandxG 0.17win prob +17 ptsVideo
    3-1
    2:31
  2. FLA
    B. Marchand(21)PPG
    S. Bennett (14), S. Reinhart (20)
    snapxG 0.19win prob +17 ptsVideo
    3-2
    7:05

3rd period

  1. TBL
    N. Kucherov(15)EN
    A. Cirelli (12)
    backhandxG 0.39win prob +3 ptsVideo
    4-2
    19:04

Penalties

TBL 87 PIM·FLA 49 PIM

1st

  • 3:25FLASam Bennett · Roughingdrawn by Yanni Gourde2 min
  • 3:25TBLYanni Gourde · Roughingdrawn by Sam Bennett2 min
  • 3:25FLASam Bennett · Roughingdrawn by Yanni Gourde2 min
  • 3:25TBLYanni Gourde · Roughingdrawn by Sam Bennett2 min
  • 3:25TBLZemgus Girgensons · Cross checkingdrawn by Aaron Ekblad2 min
  • 6:48FLAA.J. Greer · Trippingdrawn by Nikita Kucherov2 min
  • 12:49TBLSteven Santini · Cross checkingdrawn by Jesper Boqvist2 min
  • 14:15FLAAaron Ekblad · Holdingdrawn by Anthony Cirelli2 min

2nd

  • 3:48FLAMackie Samoskevich · Interferencedrawn by Oliver Bjorkstrand2 min
  • 6:59TBLCurtis Douglas · Roughingdrawn by Luke Kunin2 min
  • 6:59TBLCurtis Douglas · Fightingdrawn by Luke Kunin5 min
  • 6:59FLALuke Kunin · Fightingdrawn by Curtis Douglas5 min
  • 10:14FLAAaron Ekblad · Interferencedrawn by Darren Raddysh2 min
  • 18:30FLASeth Jones · Roughingdrawn by Anthony Cirelli2 min
  • 18:30TBLAnthony Cirelli · Roughingdrawn by Seth Jones2 min
  • 18:30FLAEvan Rodrigues · Roughingdrawn by Max Crozier2 min
  • 18:30TBLMax Crozier · Roughingdrawn by Evan Rodrigues2 min
  • 18:30TBLOliver Bjorkstrand · Roughingdrawn by A.J. Greer2 min
  • 18:30TBLOliver Bjorkstrand · Roughingdrawn by A.J. Greer2 min
  • 18:30FLAA.J. Greer · Roughingdrawn by Oliver Bjorkstrand2 min
  • 18:30FLAA.J. Greer · Roughingdrawn by Oliver Bjorkstrand2 min
  • 18:30TBLCharle-Edouard D'Astous · Roughingdrawn by Carter Verhaeghe2 min
  • 18:30TBLCharle-Edouard D'Astous · Roughingdrawn by Carter Verhaeghe2 min
  • 18:30FLACarter Verhaeghe · Roughingdrawn by Charle-Edouard D'Astous2 min
  • 18:30FLACarter Verhaeghe · Roughingdrawn by Charle-Edouard D'Astous2 min
  • 18:30TBLJake Guentzel · Roughingdrawn by A.J. Greer2 min

3rd

  • 1:34TBLScott Sabourin · Roughingdrawn by Niko Mikkola2 min
  • 1:34TBLScott Sabourin · Slashingdrawn by Niko Mikkola2 min
  • 1:34TBLScott Sabourin · Misconduct10 min
  • 5:34TBLMax Crozier · High stickingdrawn by Jesper Boqvist2 min
  • 9:30FLASam Bennett · Slashingdrawn by Nikita Kucherov2 min
  • 10:53TBLOliver Bjorkstrand · Slashingdrawn by Eetu Luostarinen2 min
  • 12:14FLASam Bennett · Boardingdrawn by Max Crozier2 min
  • 14:39FLASam Bennett · Roughingdrawn by Max Crozier2 min
  • 14:39FLAUvis Balinskis · Roughingdrawn by Yanni Gourde2 min
  • 14:39TBLCharle-Edouard D'Astous · Roughingdrawn by Brad Marchand2 min
  • 14:39TBLCharle-Edouard D'Astous · Roughingdrawn by Brad Marchand2 min
  • 14:39TBLYanni Gourde · Roughingdrawn by Uvis Balinskis2 min
  • 14:39FLABrad Marchand · Roughingdrawn by Charle-Edouard D'Astous2 min
  • 14:39TBLMax Crozier · Roughingdrawn by Sam Bennett2 min
  • 19:27TBLScott Sabourin · Roughingdrawn by Jack Studnicka2 min
  • 19:27FLALuke Kunin · Misconduct10 min
  • 19:27TBLCurtis Douglas · Misconduct10 min
  • 19:27TBLScott Sabourin · Misconduct10 min
  • 19:27TBLJ.J. Moser · Misconduct10 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
FLA goalTBL goalFinal: FLA 0%

Biggest swing: Brad Marchand, 2nd 7:05 — FLA 18% → 35%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
M. Samoskevich · Missed · xG 0.25B. Marchand · Missed · xG 0.24B. Marchand · Missed · xG 0.20S. Reinhart · Missed · xG 0.20B. Marchand · Goal · xG 0.19E. Luostarinen · Goal · xG 0.18C. Verhaeghe · On goal · xG 0.17S. Reinhart · Missed · xG 0.15E. Luostarinen · On goal · xG 0.14J. Studnicka · On goal · xG 0.13M. Samoskevich · On goal · xG 0.13M. Samoskevich · On goal · xG 0.12E. Luostarinen · On goal · xG 0.11E. Luostarinen · Missed · xG 0.11B. Marchand · Missed · xG 0.11J. Petry · On goal · xG 0.11E. Luostarinen · On goal · xG 0.11A. Greer · Missed · xG 0.09S. Bennett · On goal · xG 0.09B. Marchand · On goal · xG 0.09S. Reinhart · Missed · xG 0.09G. Forsling · On goal · xG 0.08S. Bennett · Missed · xG 0.06S. Reinhart · Missed · xG 0.06E. Luostarinen · Missed · xG 0.06E. Rodrigues · On goal · xG 0.06E. Luostarinen · On goal · xG 0.05S. Bennett · Missed · xG 0.04E. Rodrigues · Missed · xG 0.04E. Rodrigues · On goal · xG 0.04E. Rodrigues · On goal · xG 0.04J. Studnicka · On goal · xG 0.03B. Marchand · On goal · xG 0.02E. Rodrigues · Missed · xG 0.02G. Forsling · Missed · xG 0.02S. Jones · Missed · xG 0.02S. Bennett · On goal · xG 0.02S. Reinhart · Missed · xG 0.01A. Ekblad · Missed · xG 0.01A. Lundell · On goal · xG 0.01S. Jones · On goal · xG 0.01S. Reinhart · On goal · xG 0.01L. Kunin · On goal · xG 0.01U. Balinskis · Missed · xG 0.01A. Lundell · Missed · xG 0.01U. Balinskis · On goal · xG 0.01S. Jones · On goal · xG 0.00
FLA2 G · 3.8 xG · 47 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

TBLvsFLA
3.03 G
All situations
2 G3.8
1.42 G
Even strength
1 G1.4
0.60 G
Power play
1 G2.2
0.31 G
Shorthanded
0 G0.3

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 81 unblocked attempts. Empty-net goals are left out of the goal counts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
TBL28%72%FLA

Flurry-adjusted xG 2.27 – 3.65

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

TBLvsFLA
25
Shots on goal
26
48%
Faceoffs
52%
0/6
Power play
1/10
87
Penalty minutes
49
32
Hits
27
17
Blocked shots
9
10
Giveaways
10
5
Takeaways
3

Box score

every player line
Tampa Bay Lightning skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
59J. GuentzelC101+130.44232027:14
43D. RaddyshD000050.27320—25:07
90J. MoserD000+110.032210—22:28
24M. CrozierD011+210.09436—20:25
67D. CarlileD011+100.00300—18:32
86N. KucherovR202+231.04200—18:29
21B. PointC011+120.36000017:16
71A. CirelliC022+110.033124017:10
51C. D'AstousD000+110.00108—16:42
28Z. GirgensonsC000030.07202016:06
37Y. GourdeC011+110.021165515:04
20N. PaulL000020.084206214:22
29P. HolmbergR101+110.4112010013:20
22O. BjorkstrandR000000.10206—12:13
93G. GoncalvesC011+110.0400010010:52
16S. SantiniD000+100.00112—07:58
46S. SabourinR000000.001026—06:32
42C. DouglasC000000.000017003:45
Tampa Bay Lightning goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
88A. Vasilevskiy(W)26242.9233.79+1.7959:46

Season series

TBL leads 3-1

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).