Sabres at Devils 3-1 — Recap, Win Probability & Shot Map

NHL scoreboard

Buffalo Sabres

▸3

New Jersey Devils

FinalTV MSG-B, MSGSN·Prudential Center

Recap

written from the game data

The Buffalo Sabres beat the New Jersey Devils 3-1. The Devils scored first; the Sabres answered. The Sabres led 2-1 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Zach Benson's goal at 16:05 of the second period, which took the Sabres' chances from 47% to 69%. Expected goals were close — BUF 2.6, NJD 2.7; shots on goal were BUF 25, NJD 27. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Devils win a replay of these chances 78% of the time. Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen stopped 26 of 27 (.963), 1.7 goals saved above expected; Jake Allen stopped 22 of 24 (.917), 0.8 goals below expected. Three stars: 1. Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen (26 saves, .963), 2. Zach Benson (1 G), 3. Jack Hughes (1 G).

Three stars

★
U. Luukkonen26 saves, .963
★★
Z. Benson1 G
★★★
J. Hughes1 G

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath

Goals and shots on goal by period
Team	1st	2nd	3rd	T
BUF	09	212	14	325
NJD	112	06	09	127

Scoring

4 goals

1st period

J. Hughes(11)
D. Mercer (13), C. White (4)
snapxG 0.09win prob +13 ptsVideo
0-1
8:51

2nd period

J. Norris(4)
R. Dahlin (24), O. Power (7)
snapxG 0.22win prob +16 ptsVideo
1-1
2:26
Z. Benson(3)
R. McLeod (13), J. Quinn (12)
snapxG 0.12win prob +22 ptsVideo
2-1
16:05

3rd period

P. Krebs(1)EN
T. Thompson (14), B. Byram (8)
wristxG 0.94win prob +7 ptsVideo
3-1
17:59

Penalties

2 PIM·

0 PIM

1st

19:48Zach Benson · High stickingdrawn by Timo Meier2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game

Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number

goal

goalFinal: NJD

Biggest swing: Zach Benson, 2nd 16:05 — BUF 47% → 69%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG

1 G · 2.7 xG · 47 att

←

attacks

attacks →

3 G · 2.6 xG · 35 att NJD

1 G · 2.7 xG · 47 att

Tap a shot for who, when and how likely

GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

2.62 G
All situations: 1 G2.7; 1.22 G
Even strength: 1 G1.9; 0.00 G
Power play: 0 G0.8; 0.00 G
Shorthanded: 0 G0.0

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 82 unblocked attempts. Empty-net goals are left out of the goal counts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created

22%78%

Flurry-adjusted xG 1.17 – 2.66

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

25
Shots on goal: 27; 41%
Faceoffs: 59%; 0/0
Power play: 0/1; 2
Penalty minutes: 0; 20
Hits: 16; 23
Blocked shots: 13; 16
Giveaways: 18; 7
Takeaways: 2

Box score

every player line

Buffalo Sabres skaters
Skater	G	A	P	+/-	SOG	ixG	Hit	Blk	PIM	FO%	TOI
23M. SamuelssonD	0	0	0	+1	0	0.00	5	4	0	—	26:07
26R. DahlinD	0	1	1	+2	1	0.07	0	4	0	—	22:34
4B. ByramD	0	1	1	+1	1	0.53	0	2	0	—	22:18
25O. PowerD	0	1	1	+1	2	0.03	1	1	0	—	21:43
89A. TuchR	0	0	0	+1	4	0.15	2	1	0	—	18:47
19P. KrebsC	1	0	1	0	3	1.06	1	1	0	0	17:54
86N. OstlundC	0	0	0	+1	1	0.01	0	2	0	100	17:08
72T. ThompsonC	0	1	1	0	0	0.08	1	1	0	41	16:48
9J. NorrisC	1	0	1	+1	1	0.22	0	1	0	33	15:48
8M. KesselringD	0	0	0	-1	3	0.07	1	2	0	—	15:41
91J. DoanR	0	0	0	-1	2	0.10	0	2	0	—	15:03
71R. McLeodC	0	1	1	+2	2	0.10	0	1	0	27	14:47
29B. MalenstynL	0	0	0	0	1	0.01	5	0	0	100	13:23
44J. DunneC	0	0	0	0	1	0.01	0	0	0	100	13:09
6Z. BensonL	1	0	1	+1	1	0.12	1	0	2	—	13:05
73Z. MetsaD	0	0	0	0	1	0.04	1	1	0	—	11:54
22J. QuinnR	0	1	1	+1	0	0.01	1	0	0	—	11:07
63I. RosenR	0	0	0	0	1	0.03	1	0	0	—	10:44

Buffalo Sabres goalies
Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	xGA	GSAx	TOI
1U. Luukkonen(W)	27	26	1	.963	2.70	+1.70	60:00

Season series

BUF leads 2-1

Nov 285@0Final
Dec 213@1this game
Feb 252@1Final

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).

Buffalo Sabres at New Jersey Devils

1st period

2nd period

3rd period

1st

Box score