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Penguins at Maple Leafs
NHL

Pittsburgh Penguins at Toronto Maple Leafs

NHL scoreboard
Pittsburgh Penguins
3
Toronto Maple Leafs
▸4
FinalTV NHLN, SN-PIT·Scotiabank Arena

Recap

written from the game data

The Toronto Maple Leafs beat the Pittsburgh Penguins 4-3. The Maple Leafs came back from three goals down. The Penguins led 3-0 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Bobby McMann's goal at 13:43 of the third period, which took the Maple Leafs' chances from 52% to 88%. Expected goals favored the Penguins, 3.6 to 2.2; shots on goal were PIT 37, TOR 20. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Penguins win a replay of these chances 73% of the time. Tristan Jarry stopped 16 of 20 (.800), 1.8 goals below expected; Anthony Stolarz stopped 34 of 37 (.919), 0.6 goals saved above expected. Three stars: 1. William Nylander (2 G, 1 A), 2. Auston Matthews (1 G, 1 A), 3. Anthony Stolarz (34 saves, .919).

Three stars

  1. ★
    TOR
    W. Nylander2 G, 1 A
  2. ★★
    TOR
    A. Matthews1 G, 1 A
  3. ★★★
    TOR
    A. Stolarz34 saves, .919

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdT
PITPIT28117012337
TORTOR0503412420

Scoring

7 goals

1st period

  1. PIT
    E. Karlsson(1)
    S. Crosby (8), P. Tomasino (1)
    wristxG 0.10win prob +14 ptsVideo
    1-0
    13:08
  2. PIT
    B. Kindel(4)
    R. Shea (6), V. Koivunen (1)
    deflectedxG 0.58win prob +17 ptsVideo
    2-0
    17:56

2nd period

  1. PIT
    B. Kindel(5)PPG
    E. Malkin (16), B. Rust (7)
    wristxG 0.07win prob +8 ptsVideo
    3-0
    11:50

3rd period

  1. TOR
    A. Matthews(7)
    J. McCabe (4), W. Nylander (13)
    snapxG 0.12win prob +6 ptsVideo
    3-1
    3:31
  2. TOR
    W. Nylander(4)
    M. Knies (12), M. Rielly (6)
    backhandxG 0.05win prob +16 ptsVideo
    3-2
    4:47
  3. TOR
    W. Nylander(5)
    O. Ekman-Larsson (7), A. Matthews (4)
    snapxG 0.03win prob +28 ptsVideo
    3-3
    6:55
  4. TOR
    B. McMann(3)
    N. Robertson (4), M. Rielly (7)
    wristxG 0.21win prob +36 ptsVideo
    3-4
    13:43

Penalties

PIT 2 PIM·TOR 6 PIM

1st

  • 14:28PITOwen Pickering · Interferencedrawn by Nicolas Roy2 min

2nd

  • 10:44TORPhilippe Myers · Hookingdrawn by Evgeni Malkin2 min
  • 17:34TORWilliam Nylander · Trippingdrawn by Connor Dewar2 min

3rd

  • 8:55TORSammy Blais · High stickingdrawn by Erik Karlsson2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
TOR goalPIT goalFinal: TOR 100%

Biggest swing: Bobby McMann, 3rd 13:43 — TOR 52% → 88%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
N. Robertson · Missed · xG 0.22B. McMann · Goal · xG 0.21B. McMann · Missed · xG 0.18W. Nylander · Missed · xG 0.15N. Robertson · Missed · xG 0.13D. Joshua · On goal · xG 0.13A. Matthews · Goal · xG 0.12N. Robertson · Missed · xG 0.11N. Roy · On goal · xG 0.11N. Robertson · On goal · xG 0.10A. Matthews · On goal · xG 0.09W. Nylander · On goal · xG 0.09N. Robertson · On goal · xG 0.08M. Rielly · Missed · xG 0.06A. Matthews · Missed · xG 0.06A. Matthews · On goal · xG 0.05W. Nylander · Goal · xG 0.05B. Carlo · On goal · xG 0.05A. Matthews · On goal · xG 0.04O. Ekman-Larsson · On goal · xG 0.04W. Nylander · Goal · xG 0.02P. Myers · On goal · xG 0.02P. Myers · Missed · xG 0.02W. Nylander · On goal · xG 0.01O. Ekman-Larsson · Missed · xG 0.01W. Nylander · Missed · xG 0.01W. Nylander · On goal · xG 0.01P. Myers · On goal · xG 0.01N. Robertson · On goal · xG 0.00B. Carlo · On goal · xG 0.00P. Myers · Missed · xG 0.00
TOR4 G · 2.2 xG · 31 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

PITvsTOR
3.63 G
All situations
4 G2.2
2.52 G
Even strength
4 G2.0
1.11 G
Power play
0 G0.1
0.00 G
Shorthanded
0 G0.1

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 84 unblocked attempts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
PIT73%27%TOR

Flurry-adjusted xG 3.49 – 2.12

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

PITvsTOR
37
Shots on goal
20
41%
Faceoffs
59%
1/3
Power play
0/1
2
Penalty minutes
6
9
Hits
35
5
Blocked shots
24
18
Giveaways
22
5
Takeaways
5

Box score

every player line
Pittsburgh Penguins skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
65E. KarlssonD101030.27000—27:54
58K. LetangD000010.02100—24:35
87S. CrosbyC011-220.291004823:43
71E. MalkinC011-280.60000022:33
81B. KindelC202+171.062102022:23
17B. RustR011-320.22010—20:26
5R. SheaD011030.09020—19:41
28P. WotherspoonD000010.02010—19:23
41V. KoivunenR011+130.32000—15:17
39A. ManthaR000030.24000—15:02
18T. NovakC000+100.000004014:22
53P. TomasinoR011+110.111005013:35
46B. LizotteC000-120.101004413:18
45H. BrunickeD000-210.04000—12:39
11F. HallanderC000-200.17000012:24
38O. PickeringD000-200.00002—11:05
19C. DewarC000000.00300010:58
55N. AcciariC000000.00000001:10
Pittsburgh Penguins goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
35T. Jarry(L)20164.8002.18-1.8257:32

Season series

TOR leads 3-0

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).